Crude Continues Higher, Overnight Pullback Sets Up A VWAP Add-In
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Dare I say, another good day despite the lack of excitement yesterday intraday. The markets are doing their thing quite nicely. The stock indexes have pushed a little lower than the smaller ranges we marked off on the snap view, and NazQuack has pushed below its larger range too.
So the big question is: break down and out, or turn to range highs?
Given that it’s Friday, phew, doesn’t the week fly when you are popping premiums, something significant is going to need to happen. And as the week is mostly bearish at this point, sideways or down seems most likely, with a bull move technically possible but least likely for me.
Then we have the weekend hurdle: what will Trump do this time to bugger around with the markets? lol.
SPX flipped bullish on a setup mirroring the 17th, Uncle Russ still bear at the lows, crude setting up a VWAP add-in, and the BTC breakout is officially done. Right then, let’s get into the charts.
Market Snapshot
Overnight tape: SPX ES sitting on the range boundary, NazQuack has pushed below its larger range, crude off yesterday’s high pulling back toward VWAP, and BTC below 65.5k with the range reversal now signalling.
- ES (SPX): 7,464.25 / +0.11% / flipped bullish, mirrors the 17th, full read below
- YM (Uncle Dow): 52,168 / +0.48% / holding the smaller range top
- NQ (NazQuack): 28,682.75 / -0.20% / pushed below the larger range
- RTY (Uncle Russ): 2,962.50 / +0.45% / floating at range lows, full read below
- VIX: 18.67 / -0.11% / still low, no fear on the tape
- GC (Gold): 4,060.80 / +0.21% / drifting
- CL (Crude): 89.17 / -3.45% / pulling back toward rising VWAP, full read below
- BTC: 65,074.24 / +0.04% / below 65.5k, breakout done, full read below
SPX: Bullish Flip Mirrors The 17th, 7,380 Is The Line
SPX swings have flipped to bullish with an above-average setup. We saw a similar setup on the 17th, so we could see something similar develop as we run into the week’s end for Friday.
This lines up with the generalised view of meandering sideways for the day, and possibly bullish into next week.
Below 7,380 and the bear will be back on the table, and the breakdown move is likely to take us from the 7,400 level to the 7,300 zone.
Bullish flip. Above-average setup. 7,380 flips it back.
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Uncle Russ: Bearish Swing At The Range Lows, 2,925 The Break
RUT swing is bearish for the moment, and floats at the range lows too. A bullish swing entry is still possible around the open.
Below 2,925 and the bear roars.
Bear at the lows. 2,925 opens the roar.
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Crude Oil: Overnight Pullback Toward Rising VWAP, Bull Add-In In Play
Crude oil futures continue to push higher. Overnight we are seeing a reaction move down toward the rising VWAP, which could provide a good bull swing add-in entry point.
Pullback to VWAP. Bull add-in in play.
Bitcoin: Range Updates Locked In, Breakout Done, 63k On
Friday is here, and the range updates are locked in. Price tipped below the 65.5k level noted yesterday, and I am going to have to call the breakout trade done and the range reversal down to 63k on.
I will keep 67k for a bull trigger still, which was my prior confidence booster for the early bull move.
Breakout done. 63k on. 67k still the bull trigger.
From The Desk: Popper Delivered Again, $55 In The Bag
Premium Poppers for Thursday delivered again — PopPop.
Once again, I was mostly in training calls most of the morning, so not too much activity from me, and just a small win this time. $55 locked in, my bullseye fly just missed, and my add-in trade did not get a chance to lock in profit, mainly because I was a little greedy on my targets and not being able to fully monitor and make an adjustment. So it is my own fault.
Still, a profit is a profit.
Once again, the trader community is nailing the wins and racking up the profits. Awesome work again team.
Small win banked. Team nailing it.
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Meme of the Day:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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