Bitcoin went for a new high, got a rejection bar for its trouble, and is now sat at the range high having failed to break up and out. Inside: where the dumb money always puts its stop, why half the pattern height is not a risk control, the short filled at 80000, and an SPX gap of around 40 points that still has to prove itself.
...The S&P future added forty points overnight after four big names reported. Working out whether that was a market moving or a weighting doing its job turns out to be surprisingly hard before 09:30.
...Nvidia cleared $96.2bn and guided to $108bn, and the S&P future added forty points. Whether that was breadth or arithmetic cannot be answered by anything that trades overnight, which is the actual story.
...The volatility expansion lasted a day. The SPX 3 day average is back to 40 points small, the VIX went for 16 and fizzled, and there is still nothing more than sput sput fizz on most of the moves. Inside: the PnF barrier at 7680 to 7700, crude back at the $80 level it keeps returning to, and the Pinocchio setup forming on Bitcoin.
...Two, ten and thirty years all fell six to seven basis points on a day with no Fed speaker and no data. The only thing that moved was oil. So what is the two-year measuring?
...We said the two-year had stopped working. Then we said it had started again. On Tuesday it closed at 4.17%, below the floor of both stories, and the thing that moved it was the price of oil.
...The inside bar called 5 markets overnight. RUT took both sides, the Dow took the high, ES and NQ took the lows first, crude broke and trended, and BTC broke low and faked it. Inside: why break and trend and break and fake are not the same trade, and the SPX bands squeezing again with the 3 day average around 50 points.
...For four sessions the 2-year did not move and I said it had stopped working as a price. On Friday it moved 5bp and held. Here is what that might mean, and where I might be wrong.
...The 2-year sat at 4.19% for four straight sessions through a buyback shock and hawkish minutes. Then it printed 4.24% twice. Bitcoin took 80,000 and nobody looked at the boring number.
...RUT did the job SPX normally does. SPX did not. And the final 10 minutes of the session settled both of them at once.
Two trades to start the week off with.
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