Markets only go up, don’t-cha-know. My opinions are hanging up next to my spurs, the VIX soufflé is collapsing to order, and Bitcoin is one hard push from a drop bear. Inside: the SPX level that flips me to the bear assessment, where crude drops to $80 in a blink, and Bitcoin’s 2 targets if 73,000 goes.
...CoreWeave raised its outlook and rose 24.71%; the chip fund SOXX added 6.01% and the S&P 500 1.31%, most of it by the open. The bond market was shut for Veterans Day.
...2 inside bars on the S&P daily, and the high’s already gone on futures overnight. The side that breaks first is often the fake, so I’m watching for the run to the lows, and the 1 move that would prove me wrong. Crude’s sitting on its YTD VWAP, Bitcoin just flicked the bear switch, and you get every level I’m watching.
...October core CPI beat and the 2-year rose 17bp, yet the VIX fell while bond volatility rose 7.5%. Why would rates carry all the fear and equities none of it?
...October core CPI beat at 0.3% and the 2-year jumped 17bp to 4.73%, but in three steps, and Governor Waller took the first one. Nvidia fell 5.47%; December Nasdaq futures are up 1.56%.
...I expected the inside day breakout to fake out and turn back. It never came back inside. My opinion said one thing, the rules said get bullish, and the community pulled out premiums. Now the indexes are pushing into prior levels and SPX is at point 3, the same spot as last week before Thursday’s collapse. Here’s the jumping off point I’m watching, plus crude’s neckline break and 2 new Double Dippers.
...December crude fell 4.38% on Monday and the 2-year yield rose 5bp anyway. Today’s October CPI cannot contain Monday’s oil, which tells us what the print can and cannot settle.
...December crude settled 4.38% lower 82 minutes before the President called the Iran war effectively over. Stocks rose 2.35%, the 2-year rose 5bp, and October CPI prints at 13:30 UTC.
...Friday’s inside day came straight after Thursday’s flush, and the overnight relief rally is pushing at its highs. I’ll show you why the side that breaks first is often a false direction, what the big dawgs do with your stops when it does, and the 3 Double Dip setups I’m watching while SPY turns from bull to bear.
...Payrolls rose 165,000 on Friday and the 2-year yield rose 5bp to 4.51%, taking back 5 of Thursday’s 12bp fall. The dollar index rose 0.70%. CPI prints Tuesday at 13:30 UTC. What is left for it to decide?
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