The volatility expansion lasted a day. The SPX 3 day average is back to 40 points small, the VIX went for 16 and fizzled, and there is still nothing more than sput sput fizz on most of the moves. Inside: the PnF barrier at 7680 to 7700, crude back at the $80 level it keeps returning to, and the Pinocchio setup forming on Bitcoin.
...Two, ten and thirty years all fell six to seven basis points on a day with no Fed speaker and no data. The only thing that moved was oil. So what is the two-year measuring?
...We said the two-year had stopped working. Then we said it had started again. On Tuesday it closed at 4.17%, below the floor of both stories, and the thing that moved it was the price of oil.
...The inside bar called 5 markets overnight. RUT took both sides, the Dow took the high, ES and NQ took the lows first, crude broke and trended, and BTC broke low and faked it. Inside: why break and trend and break and fake are not the same trade, and the SPX bands squeezing again with the 3 day average around 50 points.
...For four sessions the 2-year did not move and I said it had stopped working as a price. On Friday it moved 5bp and held. Here is what that might mean, and where I might be wrong.
...The 2-year sat at 4.19% for four straight sessions through a buyback shock and hawkish minutes. Then it printed 4.24% twice. Bitcoin took 80,000 and nobody looked at the boring number.
...RUT did the job SPX normally does. SPX did not. And the final 10 minutes of the session settled both of them at once.
Two trades to start the week off with.
...An inside day to finish Friday sets us up for a pop out of the narrow range, and on stock indexes the side that breaks first is often the false one. The move in was bearish, so that is bear continuation 65 to 70% of the time. Inside: why crude does not play the same trick, and the VIX line I am still watching for.
...Two economic wars opened in one weekend, gold took a record and the long bond printed 2007. The dollar index closed at 98.8 for the fourth session running. Here is what that silence might mean.
...Two economic wars opened over one weekend, gold took a record, the long bond printed 2007, and the dollar index closed at 98.8 for the fourth session running. Something has stopped transmitting.
...