Eight PM ET – Pakistan brokered a two-week ceasefire – Hormuz conditionally reopening – carpet bombing threat was another idle TACO – markets loved it instantly
S&P futures +2.5%, Nasdaq +3.3%, Dow +1,000 points, VIX -20% to 20.63 – war premium unwinding – oil -16% to WTI $94
The bullish bias from last week has come to fruition – VIX through 22 – may well have seen the market bottom – short term is bullish
SPX broke out of the tight range yesterday – should be popping 150 points or so higher assuming the overnight holds – RUT flat awaiting fresh setup
Operation Battery Recharge complete – back at the desk – deep OTM SPX butterflies looking spectacular at the open – woot woot
Trump’s deadline is tonight at 8pm ET – reopen Hormuz or face strikes – Iran said permanent end or nothing – deadline five, same pattern as four previous
Monday was flat as a pancake – bullish engulfing on the futures daily but the cash session was an exceptionally narrow range – action mostly premarket
Very little has changed from Monday’s view – range behaving like a range – expect a bull move on the breakout – 6,600 now looking like support, 6,690 overhead resistance
Full data gauntlet this week – FOMC minutes Wednesday, PCE Thursday, March CPI Friday – first CPI to capture Iran’s energy surge – JPM projects headline jumps to 3.4%
Day four of Operation Battery Recharge – zoo spotting today – giant otters had twin pups – this is a priority
Trump’s April 6 deadline expired – Iran’s response was full compensation first then maybe – Trump’s counter is Tuesday 8pm ET with threats on power plants and bridges – Brent at $109
NFP dropped +178K on Good Friday into closed markets – first reaction today – strong jobs, cooling wages, Fed stays frozen – Core PCE still 3%
Overnight futures opened 20 points down, now 40 up, still grinding sideways – ranges within ranges within ranges – eye roll, tut
BB pinch on both SPX and RUT says price is resting – 84% continuation signal from 30-year data study completed last week – wait for the setup
UK bank holiday today – extending the long weekend into Tuesday – the market can wait
Michael S. closes out two full weeks — 17 winners, 4 losers, 80.9% win rate, $525 net on 1 contract — still learning VWAP setups, targeting scale to 2 contracts after one more week of consistency
Andy D. had the session of the week on Tuesday — 4 trades, 4 wins, 98%/97%/98%/96% ROC, never in danger after the first 90 minutes
Duncan G.’s bearish BWB hit its 90% target three days ahead of schedule while the rest of the market was in chaos
Don E. held through a stressful SPX bull BO reversal, waited for the price to cross back through VWAP at 10:55am, closed 67% ROC
8 traders, Mr Miyagi week, peace suggestions and carpet bomb threats — the system collected premiums throughout
Only traded Monday and Thursday – sat out Tuesday, Wednesday, and most of Thursday morning – not missing trades, managing the trader
Monday was the week’s standout session – 4 wins on SPX, 2 wins on RUT – clean and consistent ROC band throughout
Tuesday sidestepped the morning gap and grind correctly – the late morning breakout that followed was exactly as anticipated but a news blip sent things reeling before it developed
Wednesday same read – extreme MACD-v after gap higher – anticipated slow morning grind – sat on hands – BOs would have been fine but happy to sit out when things look weird
Thursday two standard setups plus two experimental gap-fill discretionary exhaustion entries on the extreme move – all four paid – 10 from 10 on the week
What an absolutely shit show – peace suggestions Tuesday, carpet bomb threats Wednesday night, April Fools TACO fully reversed
Trump confirmed Iran’s core objectives nearing completion then immediately threatened to hit Iran extremely hard by April 6 – Hormuz or face strikes on power plants and desalination – paraphrasing but that seems to be what happened
Oil heard the speech first – WTI +6.22% to $106.35 – US gas breaks $4 nationwide for the first time since 2022 – Gold -3.13% rotating into crude not safety
Index swings remain spectator sport – two bear swings went underwater during the relief rally, not worth closing, now reclaimed profitable on the overnight futures move – blood pressure making new highs
Good Friday tomorrow – NFP releases while markets are closed – Monday opens in the dark – thinking of taking it easy today and using the long weekend to power down
Trump speaks tonight at 9pm ET – peace suggestions, not talks, bunny fingers – the market has front-run a ceasefire that doesn’t exist yet
Index action confusing – looks like lower highs on surprise news – standing aside from index swings while the dust settles, same as last Monday
Crude oil is the clear read – break back inside the prior range, break-in pullback pattern developing, anticipating a trip from range highs to range lows
Gold looking easy – V-entry confirmed on the daily, break up and out on the hourly, trending nicely – target 1 at $4,900, target 2 at $5,000
No trades yesterday – reading MACD-v as bullish extreme on both instruments, expected morning grind then afternoon breakout – missed the bull break, can’t win them all
WSJ dropped a de-escalation report overnight — Trump willing to end the Iran campaign — futures loved it instantly — buy the rumour, sell the news is playing out almost daily with Trump’s pumps and dumps
Quarter from hell closes today — S&P -7% Q1, worst since 2022, 14th worst start in history — fewer than 20% of S&P 500 names above their 50-day MA
Price action today looks similar to yesterday — gap higher, trade lower — negative gamma still dominates — VIX still elevated, sell-off still being priced in
SPX bearish at MACD-v extremes but ES futures showing the extreme has reset — range developing, not a crash setup — all indexes pushing to new lows outside the Sept/Oct range
Premium Poppers absolutely smashed it yesterday — 5 from 5 — 1st BO, Lazy, VWAP flop, VWAP retest on SPX, two clean RUT trades
For a change, no huge surprises over the weekend -though the Houthis entering the fight, WTI breaking $100, and Moody’s hitting 49% is a relative statement
Overnight futures showing a little bull push -VIX at 31 suggests the bears reclaim it at the open
Both SPX and RUT in a bearish posture -but both MACDs are at extremes -a reset or sideways move expected before the next leg
GEX has upper and lower boundaries between 6,400 and 6,300 -volatility moves similar to last week remain likely
Oil was very kind on the small account challenge last week -looking set up for more interesting setups this week / Gold developing a lovely V-Entry pattern
12 Traders. 15 Screenshots. Michael Scharf Went 10 From 12 In His First Week. The Wall Had No Notes.
Michael S. joined Saturday, traded Monday, went 7 from 7 in his first two days, closed week 1 at 10 wins 2 losses 83% WR and $360 net – that is the system working from day one
Rob O. is quietly 10-1 since March 11 and scaling up the right way – two contracts, waiting for a loss before going to three
Duncan G. was the week’s volume king – six entries, 5 from 5 on a VWAP session, and a bearish BWB from Monday that paid 95% on Friday
Chris T. posted a full transparency week – two max losses wiped three wins for -$121.40 but the running total stays at +$496 over 75 trades at 80% WR
4 new traders on the Wall this week – Eddy IR, Michael S., rene m., Rob O.