Markets tanked, Iran talked peace, markets pumped, and my head came clean off. VIX played peekaboo with 16, Gold barely clung on, and Bitcoin, of all things, turned out to be the voice of sanity. Here’s how my SPX and RUT bear swings are locked, and what BTC needs for the next add-in.
...A wire report of US-Iran talks on reopening Hormuz took 3.59% out of crude inside an hour and turned the equity session around. The bond market, settling later with the same information, closed at the month’s highest yield. We try to work out which one was right.
...A report of US-Iran talks on reopening Hormuz took 3.59% out of November crude inside an hour. The Treasury curve, marked later the same afternoon, closed at 5.53%, the highest of the month. One of them is wrong.
...We banged the bear drum for THE week, and right on cue the market turned on a dime. SPX’s bull setup looks set to void on a 40 point gap, RUT has flip flopped back to the bear, Bitcoin is almost behaving, and everything on the bear side of the Premium Poppers came home to papa.
...A survey of purchasing managers moved every Treasury tenor past two years and took the average stock apart, whilst the index recorded a polite decline. Two instruments, one session, opposite accounts.
...The S&P lost three quarters of one percent and the number told you almost nothing. Underneath it, four NYSE stocks fell for every one that rose, the weakest breadth in thirty-two sessions.
...The rally was born on the back of 3 or 4 stocks, and they’ve stopped pumping. SPX and RUT are back in bearish alignment, BTC is stalling, and gold is finally interesting, with a move above 4440 set to trip the setup.
...Treasury sold $69bn of two-year notes at 4.787% and the front end rallied into it. The curve steepened. The banks, who have asked for exactly this for two years, were sold hardest of all.
...Treasury sold $69bn of two-year notes at 4.787% and the two-year yield promptly fell five basis points. Everything past five years did not move at all. The banks watched a steepening curve and sold themselves 1.97% lower.
...The market went meteoric, and it took less than a handful of tech stocks to do it. The Dow and the Russell were nowhere near the party. Inside: the fresh low scored setup taken into the close, why a bear failure here points to a strong bull continuation, the upper band that has quietly moved into RUT’s reach, and Bitcoin stalling at breakout target 1 with target 2 already in view.
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