The volatility expansion lasted a day. The SPX 3 day average is back to 40 points small, the VIX went for 16 and fizzled, and there is still nothing more than sput sput fizz on most of the moves. Inside: the PnF barrier at 7680 to 7700, crude back at the $80 level it keeps returning to, and the Pinocchio setup forming on Bitcoin.

The inside bar called 5 markets overnight. RUT took both sides, the Dow took the high, ES and NQ took the lows first, crude broke and trended, and BTC broke low and faked it. Inside: why break and trend and break and fake are not the same trade, and the SPX bands squeezing again with the 3 day average around 50 points.

An inside day to finish Friday sets us up for a pop out of the narrow range, and on stock indexes the side that breaks first is often the false one. The move in was bearish, so that is bear continuation 65 to 70% of the time. Inside: why crude does not play the same trick, and the VIX line I am still watching for.

The VIX needs to clear 16, the swing high on the daily, before I call another bear push started in earnest, and it is sat at 15.74. Meanwhile the Asian range break, retest and run delivered again in the premarket and SPX stays bearish to the breakout target while price holds below 7700. Inside: the crude narrow bar that has become a habit, and a debrief on 4 instruments landing later today.

The gap is closed and the system is still technically bearish, with the overnight futures already breaking the Asian session lows. Crude is developing the breakout called yesterday and ETH/BTC hit its 0.0320 target on a monster bar. Inside: the risk free day built before the open, and the 1 small position that buggered up the lower profit level.

SPX has pushed back into the prior range and left the breakout unconfirmed, with most of the move from range high to range low done in the gap lower. The premarket has nudged below the prior day’s lows, which means continuation 80% of the time. Inside: the crude oil narrow bar that has popped 10 times in 12, and why the profit tents only locked 2 minutes before the bell.