Iran 15-point peace plan via Pakistan leaked overnight – futures loved it, Tehran denied it, nobody knows who to believe
Oil down 4.7% to $99.55 – pop could push us toward the 6,600 GEX put level before the fade toward 6,500
Negative GEX environment continues – jumpy jittery price action is the feature, not the bug
MACD-v reporting absolutely no momentum anywhere – slight bear bias on SPX, no bias on RUT grinding sideways in the prior range zone
Premium Poppers back on top form Tuesday – one annoying stop trigger that came back as a small gain, rest of the day was killer
The TACO returned Monday – “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” – Iran denied any talks existed – markets ripped then consolidated
Did nothing Monday and came out the other side with the TnT bearish again – no harm no foul – if in doubt, do nowt
Both SPX and RUT have fresh bearish setups on 30 min / 30 periods – back to the business at hand
5-day clock expires Saturday – the threat machine can reload for the weekend – we’ve seen this movie before
The bear is back on – price finally challenging the range held since last September/October – the next breakout and down is in play
Trump’s Hormuz ultimatum expires tonight at 7:44pm ET – Tehran’s response: “strike electricity, we strike electricity” – no compliance signals anywhere
SPX swings remain bearish – RUT Friday bull TnT was on the last bar, impossible to execute – gap down today keeps the bear case intact
SpotGamma: $1.4 trillion in delta notional expired Friday, the market’s shock absorber is gone, realised vol has room to catch up with implied
Just like that, the bear scare is off the table – sideways movement, tumbleweed, and fine – let’s be bullish
This is 2007/08 all over again – reality being ignored while the market grinds – until one day it isn’t
Triple Witching today – volume surges, swings get violent, every move gets amplified – sloppy and fun
SPX and RUT both bullish again on TnT with ADD at extreme lows and MACDv at extremes – the setup for a push higher is there
FOMC held, dot plot raised inflation to 2.7%, one cut pencilled, seven members see zero cuts – markets threw the teddy out the pram
South Pars struck overnight – world’s largest natural gas reserve – Brent spiked to $109, up 80% since February 28
Both SPX and RUT tagged bullish briefly on Wednesday then flipped back bearish in under an hour – the PFZ flip was the entry signal
1 and done on both instruments – not aggressively hunting entries on FOMC day was the right call – the setup is the setup
FOMC today – hold 95%+ priced – dot plot drops simultaneously at 2pm – Powell 2:30pm – June cut odds collapsed from 56% to 23% – every word matters
Price attempting to push higher off those lows – VIX back inside its channel – fear calming – still inside the larger range though
TnT bear signals on both SPX and RUT could flip with a push above the PFZ levels – overnight futures showing rallies but cash flagging a bear setup – direction confirmed at the open
PPI drops at 8:30am ET before all of this – any upside hardens the stagflation case and complicates Powell immediately