In 1720, the South Sea Bubble became one of history’s most infamous speculative disasters.

Founded to manage Britain’s national debt and exploit South American trade, the South Sea Company whipped up a frenzy, promising immense riches.
Shares skyrocketed 700%, only to crash 85% by October.

The company’s valuation briefly surpassed Britain’s economy, leaving thousands bankrupt when the bubble burst.

Corruption, greed, and easy credit fueled the mania. In the aftermath, reforms were introduced, but the South Sea Bubble remains a stark warning about the dangers of unchecked speculation.

The U.S. added a whopping 256,000 jobs in December, smashing expectations and dropping the unemployment rate to 4.1%.

This strong jobs report rocked markets, sending Treasury yields higher, with the 30-year yield topping 5% for the first time in over a year.
The Fed’s rate cut narrative is fading fast, with some analysts now debating potential hikes instead of cuts.
Stocks, however, retreated as markets grappled with the implications of a resilient economy and stubborn inflation. The 2s10s yield curve reached its steepest point since 2022, while gold surged over 1%.

Here’s what this means for traders.

The Buffett Indicator, which compares the total market cap to GDP, sits at 202.2% – well above the 100% overvaluation threshold.

With the Total Market Index at $59.4 trillion, it signals a potentially overpriced stock market.
While this ratio offers a macroeconomic lens into market valuation and trends, limitations like rising corporate profits and globalization can skew its implications.

It’s a useful tool but not a standalone market compass.

Thursday’s half-day trading session keeps the market on edge ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll release.

SPX consolidates near Bollinger band lows, with a speculative Tag ‘n Turn bullish entry off a potential symmetrical triangle.

The daily chart shows indecision, while 30-min charts hint at a push toward the psychological 6000 level.

For now, it’s all about patience and preparing for potential fireworks post-NFP.

Chart patterns evolve in real time, unlike textbook examples. The double bottom on SPX is morphing, potentially into a triangle pattern.

Missed trades due to external factors can’t be chased without risking account stability.
$ADD suggests a slight bullish move, but patience remains key as we await a clear breakout amidst market uncertainty.

The bullish bias continues with SPX pushing through the 5940 trigger, but conflicting signals emerge.

A textbook double bottom eyes 6050, while a head-and-shoulders looms below 5850. Yesterday’s reversal hints at a pause before any clear direction.

I’m holding my bullish positions but waiting for a conservative bearish trigger before flipping.