Crash Cancelled, Bull Gaps Higher, Crude Dumps 8%, Watch The Fizzle

Market Snapshot

The gaps tell the story today. Stock indexes off to the races, crude off the cliff, and BTC quietly in the corner minding its own business.

• ES (SPX): 7,520.25 / +1.02% / gap into upper BB, watch bear TnT, full read below
• YM (Uncle Dow): 52,641 / +1.05% / gap higher with the pack
• NQ (NazQuack): 28,736.50 / +1.52% / leading the bounce
• RTY (Uncle Russ): 2,980.60 / +1.24% / bear still valid, time decay pays, full read below
• VIX: 17.62 / -5.12% / dropping on the gap, still low
• GC (Gold): 4,094.50 / +0.96% / catching the flight
• CL (Crude): 82.85 / -8.42% / dumped, sitting on net VWAP, full read below
• BTC: 65,271.57 / -0.11% / didn’t get the weekend memo, full read below

SPX: Bull Swings Cash Out Into Upper BB, Watch For A Bear TnT

The bull swings that were brave enough to hold over the weekend are likely to be cashed out nicely at the opening bell, right into the upper BB.

Keep an eye out for a bear TnT today. And be mindful that if the bull move does continue, this could fail quickly. Again, the software will tell you and let you know.

Cash out at the upper BB. Bear TnT on watch.

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Uncle Russ: Bearish Still, Time Decay Pays Even Through The Gap

RUT is bearish still, and just missed out on the software flagging up a bull swing. The gap higher will not mess things around too much even for those who did hold the weekend.

Remember, time decay is how we get paid, so a directional move is a bonus. In this case, a gap higher will not bugger with the short strikes for the bear swings, so still a profit to be had.

Bear still valid. Time decay pays regardless.

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Crude Oil: Popped And Dropped 8%, $81 Is The Longer-Term Line

Crude oil has popped and dropped -8% at the time of writing, and sits on the net VWAP lower. Technically still a dip in the context of an uptrend.

Approx $81 has been the longer-term bull / bear support and resistance level, so as we approach it again, it will be interesting to see if we hold and turn back bullish at this level, or if we slip through it and flip to a bear move lows to retest the recent lows.

$81 is the line. Hold flips it back bull, slip flips it bear.

Bitcoin: Immune To The News, Small Rally May Be A Lower High

BTC is still meandering and seems immune to whatever news is causing everything else to pop one way or the other.

What we could be looking at with this small rally higher is better seen on the daily chart. The larger range is starting to take more definition, and this could be a lower high for a push back towards the 60k-58k zone.

Meandering. Small rally = possible lower high. 60k-58k in view.

From The Desk: Student Spotlight — Keith’s Four-Week Milestone

Amongst the many Friday winners reports, one notable mention.

Keith is a newer member who has been quietly pumping results since the end of June, and in just on four weeks is smashing the results and sharing lessons learned.

Here is his own summary from the community channel:

BO1: 26 wins out of 28 trades (93%) BO2: 1 win out of 2 trades (50%) BO3: 6 wins out of 13 trades (46%) Lazy: 1 win out of 2 trades (50%)

And crucially, Keith is already reviewing his own results and refining his process — noting where he is jumping into BO3 trades too quickly, and how to mimic the conservative BO1 approach that is working so well.

Keep on doing, learning and refining those results. Well done Keith.

Four weeks in. 93% on the BO1s. Reviewing and refining.

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