Yesterday was historic. This morning the ceasefire has cracks. Price stalled at the anchored bearish VWAP. The gap below still wants filling.
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Deal or no deal. That is the Hormuz question.
Yesterday was historic. Dow +2.85%. S&P +2.51%. Nasdaq +2.80%. WTI cratered 16%. Best session since April 2025. The TACO delivered and the markets celebrated accordingly.
This morning, that deal looks shaky.
Iran’s parliament speaker flagged three ceasefire clauses as already breached. The IRGC confirmed Hormuz tanker traffic was halted again after Israel struck Lebanon overnight. Iran says that voids the terms. Futures edged lower when the headlines hit. S&P at 6,809. Down 0.22%. The four-day rally is stalling.
It is interesting to see where prices stopped moving yesterday. Right at the anchored bearish VWAP from the year high. That is a very deliberate-looking level to pause at. The chart knew where the resistance was.
SPX has a new TnT signal with the latest system update and scoring. This one carries a normal confidence rating and I am using a Friday expiry 2-DTE. The setup comes with a warning grade though – because despite being at a bullish MACD-v extreme, we may see price snap back in a similar way to 2 April, with no bull tag developing. Trades and profits on a tight leash. The market is resting before the next bull leg, not necessarily reversing.
RUT is showing a similar picture and I have taken a similar shorter-dated trade.
The main fly in the ointment on both is the gap. Gaps like to fill. This is a big one. So it is a question of when – sooner or later.
As for yesterday’s Premium Popper – the new scoring system flagged a low confidence level on SPX. Half size or leave it was the action. I chose to leave it in the group session, which as far as I can see was the right thing to do given the subsequent sideways grind. I will chalk that up as a win in the penny saved is a penny earned column.
FOMC minutes from March warned of stagflation – growth slowing, inflation sticky, rate held at 3.50-3.75%, one cut pencilled in for 2026. PCE follows today. CPI tomorrow – first to capture the full oil shock. JPMorgan still projects 3.4%.
Deal or no deal. Gap still needs filling. Tight leash. Penny saved is a penny earned.
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Market Briefing: Thursday 9 Apr – ceasefire morning two.
- Wednesday closed: S&P +2.51% to 6,782 / Dow +2.85% to 47,910 / Nasdaq +2.80% to 22,635 / best session since April 2025
- WTI -16% to $94.41 / VIX -18% to 21.04 / 10-year yield dropped to 4.291%
- Royal Caribbean +8% / Delta +12% premarket Wednesday / energy reversed
- Overnight ceasefire cracks:
- Iran parliament: three ceasefire clauses breached
- IRGC: Hormuz tanker traffic halted again after Israel struck Lebanon
- Iran: Israel’s action voids the terms
- Futures -0.22% / S&P 6,809 / Dow 48,044 / Nasdaq 25,031
- Delta Q1: revenue beat / Q2 guidance below expectations / jet fuel still elevated
- FOMC minutes: stagflation warning / growth slowing / inflation sticky / one cut pencilled for 2026 / Powell term expires May 23
- Today: PCE 8:30am ET / CPI Friday
- Thursday read: price stalled at anchored bearish VWAP / new bearish TnT both instruments / warning grade / 2-DTE Friday trades on tight leash / gap below wants filling / question of when
Market Snapshot
- ES: 6,800.75 / -15.50 (-0.23%) / euphoria fading / stalled at anchored VWAP
- YM: 47,973 / -123 (-0.26%) / Dow giving back overnight
- NQ: 24,997.75 / -41.25 (-0.16%) / tech holding relatively well
- RTY: 2,623.20 / -9.10 (-0.35%) / RUT also stalling
- GC: 4,736.40 / -8.60 (-0.18%) / steady / safe-haven bid easing
- CL: 97.56 / +1.06 (+1.10%) / WTI bouncing off $94 / Hormuz uncertainty restoring premium
- VIX: 21.38 / +0.33 (+1.57%) / still near the 22 level / monitoring the rising trendline
- BTC: 70,968.00 / -0.17% / holding above $70K / Morgan Stanley MSBT launched
Tag ‘n Turn
New bearish TnT on both SPX and RUT. Warning grade applies. MACD-v at bullish extreme means a snap back without developing into a full bear move is possible – similar to 2 April. Tight leash. 2-DTE Friday expiry trades in place.
Price ran straight into the anchored bearish VWAP from the year high on the ceasefire rally and stalled there cleanly. That is the level the market knew about. The new bearish TnT has been generated on both instruments with the updated scoring system flagging normal confidence but with a warning attached – the bullish MACD-v extreme means the setup could resolve sideways or snap back bullish rather than delivering a clean bear target. The gap from Wednesday’s open remains below current price and gaps tend to fill eventually – the question is timing. Trades are on but profits and stops are on a tight leash. This is not a chase setup.
SPX Analysis
Bearish below 6,753. Price stalled at the anchored bearish VWAP from the year high. Warning grade. MACD-v at bullish extreme. Gap below. 2-DTE Friday trade on tight leash. Target 6,474.
The chart is telling an honest story. Yesterday’s move ran exactly to the anchored bearish VWAP from the year high and stopped. That is not a coincidence – it is the level where institutional sellers have been positioned since the highs. The TnT has flipped bearish below 6,753 with a PFZ of 6,793 and a target of 6,474. The warning grade reflects the MACD-v situation – it is at a bullish extreme, which means the market is not exhausted to the upside, and a sideways chop or snap back like 2 April remains a live scenario. The gap from yesterday’s open sits below and will want to fill at some point. The 2-DTE Friday expiry trade is positioned for the move but sitting with a tight leash.
Current Status: Bearish Below 6,753 / PFZ 6,793 / Target 6,474 / Warning Grade / 2-DTE Friday
Gamma Exposure
Aggregate GEX +3.60B and strongly positive. Flip point 6,557. Both put wall and call wall at 7,000. IV dropped to 16.80% – below historic vol for the first time since the conflict began. Stabilising environment firmly in place.
This is the most positive GEX reading of the conflict by a considerable margin. The aggregate line has moved from -3.60B at the depths of the sell-off to +3.60B after Wednesday’s session – a full 7.2B swing in aggregate gamma. IV at 16.80% is now below historic volatility of 17.30% – that inversion has not been present since before February 28. IV Percentile dropped to 76% from 85% yesterday and 96% two weeks ago. In this environment dealers are aggressively stabilising – buying dips and selling rallies. That mechanical action is partly responsible for the overnight futures giving back some of the Wednesday gains. The put wall and call wall have converged at 7,000, creating a defined upper reference. The flip point at 6,557 is well below current price, confirming the strongly positive gamma regime is intact.
Current Status: Aggregate GEX +3.60B / flip point 6,557 / put wall 7,000 / call wall 7,000 / IV 16.80% below HV / IV Percentile 76% / strongly stabilising
RUT Analysis
Similar picture to SPX – bearish below 2,617, PFZ 2,636, target 2,481. Warning grade. MACD-v at bullish extreme. Shorter-dated trade taken on tight leash. Gap below.
RUT ran the same story yesterday – big ceasefire rally stalling at a meaningful resistance level, TnT flipping bearish on the new scoring system with a warning grade attached. The MACD-v is at a bullish extreme on RUT as well, mirroring SPX. Target of 2,481 is the bear objective but the tight leash applies here too – this is a managed position not a set-and-forget. The gap from yesterday’s open below current price will eventually demand attention.
Current Status: Bearish Below 2,617 / PFZ 2,636 / Target 2,481 / Warning Grade / 2-DTE
Post Trade DeBriefing – 8 Apr 2026
SPX: No premium popper trade. The new scoring system flagged a low confidence level on the session. Half size or leave it was the decision framework. I chose to leave it in the group session. The subsequent sideways grind confirmed that was the right call. Penny saved is a penny earned. The new scoring system is doing its job.
Rounding Off
The Ceasefire Has Cracks Iran’s parliament speaker flagged three ceasefire clause breaches before breakfast. The IRGC confirmed Hormuz tanker traffic was halted again after Israel struck Lebanon overnight. Iran’s position is that the Israeli action voids the terms of the two-week pause. This is not the same as the ceasefire failing – but it is not the clean two-week window markets were pricing on Wednesday night. The deal-or-no-deal question is live again before the first full session of the ceasefire period has even completed.
Stagflation Warning From The Fed FOMC minutes from March confirmed what was already suspected: growth slowing, inflation sticky, the committee is threading an uncomfortable needle. One cut pencilled for 2026. Powell’s term expires May 23 with Kevin Warsh the frontrunner for the chair. The institutional uncertainty at the Fed is the background hum that does not go away regardless of what happens at Hormuz.
The Gap Wednesday’s session opened with a substantial gap higher from Tuesday’s close. That gap is sitting below current price. Gaps have a tendency to fill. This is a big one. The question is not whether – it is when. The bearish TnT targets are partly a reflection of this mechanical reality rather than a conviction bear call.
PCE Today, CPI Tomorrow PCE at 8:30am ET today. CPI tomorrow – the first print to capture Iran’s full energy surge period. JPMorgan still projects a 3.4% headline jump from 2.4%. Whether the ceasefire changes anything for that number: it does not – the survey period was during the war. The inflation data arriving this week describes a world that no longer quite exists, but the Fed still has to respond to it.
Current Status: Ceasefire cracks / Iran parliament three breaches / Hormuz halted again / PCE today / CPI Friday / bearish TnT both instruments / warning grade / gap below / tight leash
Expert Insights
“In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners.”
— J.P. Morgan, widely attributed, public domain
Used here not as a bear market call but as a commentary on the level where price stopped. The anchored bearish VWAP from the year high is where the sellers who were positioned from the highs have been waiting. Yesterday’s ceasefire rally ran straight to them and paused.
The rightful owners of the resistance level showed up exactly where the chart said they would be. The new bearish TnT and the warning grade are the honest acknowledgement that the bulls have not yet resolved that level. They may. But not without a fight.
[Source: J.P. Morgan – widely attributed across financial history records – public domain]
AI-BotView
Beep-Beep, Trader
It’s Cachè-AI-Bot,
Cachè-AI terminal in the corner of the newsroom. The post-ceasefire framework that was 8 pages yesterday is already at 14 pages following the overnight breach announcements. Page 11 covers the legal implications of Israel’s Lebanon strike voiding a US-Iran bilateral ceasefire. Nobody asked for page 11. The terminal is processing. It is always processing.
Beep-Beep.
1 – Iran’s claim that Israel’s Lebanon strike voids the ceasefire terms introduces a third-party invalidation mechanism that was not part of the original Pakistan-brokered framework. The bilateral ceasefire between the US and Iran does not formally include Israel as a signatory. [Source: Pakistan Foreign Ministry ceasefire announcement, 7 April 2026, public | Reuters, Iran IRGC statement, 8 April 2026, public]. Iran’s use of Israeli action as a voiding trigger is either a genuine legal position under their ceasefire interpretation or a diplomatic manoeuvre to renegotiate terms under cover of a technicality. The market cannot distinguish between the two from the outside. The Hormuz halt is real regardless of the legal argument.
2 – IV dropping below historic volatility for the first time since the conflict began is a mechanical regime shift that has specific implications for options pricing and dealer positioning. When implied volatility falls below realised volatility, options are priced cheaper than recent price movement implies – which creates buying opportunity for long volatility positions and compresses the war risk premium that has been embedded in prices since February 28. [Source: SpotGamma GEX data, $SPX Gamma Exposure, 8 April 2026, spotgamma.com, public | CBOE VIX methodology, cboe.com, public]. The ceasefire cracks appearing this morning are occurring in a mechanical environment where the market has already removed most of the fear premium. If Hormuz halts again durably, the repricing back into elevated IV will be faster than the initial removal was.
3 – The FOMC minutes’ stagflation characterisation alongside a single 2026 cut projection creates a specific Fed communication problem for the April 28 meeting. Those minutes were written before the ceasefire, before oil’s 16% drop, and before the renewed Hormuz uncertainty this morning. [Source: Federal Reserve FOMC March 2026 minutes, federalreserve.gov, public]. The April 28 meeting will need to acknowledge a dramatically changed oil picture while also noting that the ceasefire appears fragile. A Fed that communicated stagflation concern two weeks ago is now facing both a 16% oil drop and a possible re-escalation in the same week. The communication challenge is considerable.
Beep.
This Bot potentially hallucinates. Maybe. OK, Probably! Page 11 covers third-party invalidation of bilateral ceasefires. Two pages. The legal framework is interesting. Nobody asked. Here we are.
In Other News…
Yesterday: Dow +2.85%, S&P +2.51%, Nasdaq +2.80%, WTI -16%, best session since April 2025.
This morning: Iran’s parliament flagged three ceasefire clause breaches. The IRGC confirmed Hormuz tanker traffic was halted again after Israel struck Lebanon. Iran says that voids the terms. Futures are down 0.22%.
The two-week pause is twelve hours old and already has cracks in it.
Price stalled yesterday exactly at the anchored bearish VWAP from the year high. The chart, as usual, knew where the sellers were.
Delta beat Q1 revenue estimates and guided Q2 below expectations. Jet fuel costs remain elevated despite oil’s drop – the ceasefire is twelve hours old, not twelve weeks. FOMC minutes warned of stagflation. PCE arrives this morning. CPI arrives tomorrow. The inflation data describes a world that was at war when the survey was taken. The Fed has to respond to it regardless.
The gap from Wednesday’s open is sitting below current price. It is a big gap. Gaps like to fill. The question is timing.
Percy Peanut has reviewed the ceasefire breach announcement. Percy is neutral on third-party ceasefire invalidation mechanisms. The press-pass pigeon has noted that Percy’s provisional positive position review, initiated yesterday, has been paused pending clarity on the breach claims. Percy considers this appropriate. The neutrality position is being held in reserve. It may be needed again.
Hazel’s Take:
Thursday morning: Iran flagged three ceasefire breaches, IRGC halted Hormuz again after Israel struck Lebanon, futures -0.22%, yesterday was the best session since April 2025 with S&P +2.51% and WTI -16%, price stalled exactly at the anchored bearish VWAP from the year high, new bearish TnT on both instruments with warning grade and 2-DTE Friday trades on tight leash, MACD-v at bullish extreme means snap back possible, gap below wants filling, no popper trade yesterday – right call – penny saved, PCE this morning, CPI tomorrow. Deal or no deal. That is still the Hormuz question.
Rumour Has It…
Hazel has updated the calendar. The “RESOLVED (PROVISIONALLY)” notation added yesterday has had “(PROVISIONALLY)” underlined. She is looking at the underline. It has been there less than 24 hours. The composure is on day 42. It continues to hold. The fraction of a smile from yesterday has been stored for later.
Wallie has had to update the chalkboard already. Yesterday’s “TACO 849 CONFIRMED” has a question mark added to it. He wrote it slowly. Below: “IRAN: THREE BREACHES.” Below: “HORMUZ: HALTED AGAIN.” Below: “PRICE: STOPPED AT ANCHORED VWAP.” He is looking at the question mark he added to TACO 849. He does not underline question marks. He is looking at it.
Kash is seated. He stood up yesterday at 8:01pm and stood for the entire session. Today’s stream title: “DEAL OR NO DEAL – HORMUZ EDITION.” He sat down when the breach headlines arrived this morning. He did not announce the sitting. His viewer count remains high. The chair is, in the end, still his chair.
Mac has un-packed the flak jacket. It is no longer in the bag. It is on the chair beside him. He has not put it back on. But it is accessible. He considers this a pragmatic response to the morning’s headlines. His return flight departure time has been adjusted. The destination remains undisclosed.
Percy has paused the provisional positive position review. The press-pass pigeon’s YES vote from yesterday has been noted and is being held in reserve. Percy is returning to monitoring mode. The 42-day neutrality record remains intact, technically.
Cachè-AI terminal in the corner. Post-ceasefire framework at 14 pages. Page 11 covers third-party invalidation. Nobody asked. Processing.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact:
The concept of a ceasefire being voided by the actions of a third party has precedent in conflict history, though international law on the subject is genuinely contested. Most ceasefire agreements are bilateral instruments between the primary parties – they do not automatically extend to or bind allied or proxy actors.
When a third party’s actions trigger a clause breach claim, the legal question becomes whether the primary signatory bears responsibility for their ally’s conduct. In the US-Iran context, the question of whether Israel’s actions in Lebanon could be considered an extension of US military activity – and therefore a breach by Washington – is exactly the kind of interpretive argument that keeps international law scholars occupied and ceasefire negotiations extended.
The short version: it depends on what the text of the agreement actually says, and nobody outside the room has seen the text yet.
[Source: International Committee of the Red Cross – ceasefire agreements and international humanitarian law, icrc.org, public |
Oppenheim’s International Law (9th edition), public academic reference]
Meme of the Day:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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