10 Trades. 8 Wins. One Double Kick In The Shins. A New ATH At The End Of A Very Dull Week.

Two losses from 10 trades. Both landed Thursday at the NATHs. Both at 2r position sizing. Every other day finished profitable.

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Monday 13 Apr – The Blockade Morning. Lazy Popper Delivered.

The week opened on the confirmation of the US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz at 10am ET. Islamabad talks had collapsed after 21 hours. Oil was elevated. The market was expected to struggle.

It didn’t.

The 1st BO ran clean. Premium Popper paid $12 on the index at 66.7% ROC. The Lazy Popper that followed paid $40 at 100% ROC, a clean 1r return on the lazy setup. Two trades. Two wins. A strong open to what looked like it would be a difficult week.

Premium Popper ROC: 66.7% @ 1r Lazy Popper ROC: 100% @ 1r

The setup of the day was the blockade pricing in and then immediately unwinding as the market decided to focus on other things. The poppers were set up for that move exactly.

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Tuesday 14 Apr – 1st and 3rd BO. Both Paid at 1.5r.

Tuesday was a bank earnings morning. Goldman had beat profit expectations by 19% the previous day. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup all reporting. The market was directional and constructive.

Premium Popper ran two trades. The 1st BO paid $18 on the index at 67.7% ROC on the 1.5r sizing. The 3rd BO paid $15 at 65.1% ROC on the same sizing. Two from two. Clean setups, clean execution, clean exits.

Premium Popper ROC: 67.7% @ 1.5r / 65.1% @ 1.5r

The progressive sizing doing its work. The confidence level for the day allowed the plus-sized positions. Both paid.

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Wednesday 15 Apr – 1st and 3rd BO Again. Both Paid at 1r.

Wednesday was a straight-line day. The runaway gap sequence extending. The ATH approaching. MACD-v at bullish extreme continuing to signal continuation.

Two trades. Both 1st and 3rd BO setups at the 1r sizing. $9 on the index at 64.3% ROC and $7 at 60.0% ROC. Standard. Clean. No drama.

Premium Popper ROC: 64.3% @ 1r / 60.0% @ 1r

Smallest dollar wins of the week but both green. The market was cooperating quietly, the poppers took what was on offer.

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Thursday 16 Apr – The Double Kick In The Shins. The Only Red Of The Week.

Thursday the market printed a new all-time high. SPX closed 7,041.28. The primary target of the crash up was achieved.

The poppers did not cooperate.

Premium Popper ran two trades at the 2r sizing. The 1st BO hit stop at -93.5% ROC, -$20 on the index. The 2nd BO hit stop at -100% ROC, -$20 on the index. Both at maximum defined loss. First double kick in the shins the system has taken in a long time.

Premium Popper ROC: -93.5% @ 2r / -100% @ 2r

Classic setups. Sloppy at the NATHs. The note worth filing: when the bread-and-butter setups start failing at all-time highs, the market is sending a signal. The defined loss is defined. The stop did its job. The account lives to trade Friday.

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Friday 17 Apr – 1st and 3rd BO. 2r. Clean End To The Week.

Friday the market consolidated at the highs. BB exceptionally tight. MACD-v still at bullish extreme. Bear TnT appearing on the 30-minute but expected to be short-lived.

Two trades. 1st BO paid $22 at 65.5% ROC on 2r sizing. 3rd BO paid $18 at 64.3% ROC on 2r sizing. The 2r sizing delivering on the confidence level after Thursday’s kick.

Premium Popper ROC: 65.5% @ 2r / 64.3% @ 2r

As I am typing this it’s early afternoon. SPX is attempting to turn around intraday and currently struggling to hold the ORB60 highs. The day is not over. The fat lady has sung all her songs for me this week.

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The Week’s Key Observation

Eight clean wins at 60.0% to 100% ROC bracketing a single double-kick Thursday at the NATHs.

Four of the five sessions delivered exactly what the Premium Popper system is built for: clean 1st BO and 3rd BO setups on trending conditions with MACD-v at bullish extreme. The Lazy Popper on Monday added the extra layer. The progressive sizing system responded to the daily confidence read, 1r on the cleaner days, 1.5r mid-week, 2r on the stronger-conviction days at the end of the week.

Thursday was the only wobble. And it’s the one worth paying attention to. When the classic setups start failing at all-time highs, the tape is telling you something. Not a reversal call. A flag.

The total for the week: 10 trades, 8 wins, 2 losses, 4 profitable days from 5. In a week that included an active naval blockade, a ceasefire expiry binary four days out, a VIX at 18 that the market has apparently decided not to care about, and a new all-time high for the SPX.

The broker statement does not know about any of that. It just sees the exit fills.

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Week ROC Summary

Winning trades ROC range: 60.0% to 100% Losing trades ROC range: -93.5% to -100% (both at 2r, both contained) Win rate: 8 from 10 / 80% Profitable days: 4 from 5

Proof as always is on the charts with the broker statements.