The Midterms, Tonight. SPX Is Sat on Support, and I’ve Gone and Jinxed the Bull

Americans vote today for every seat in the House, 35 of the 100 in the Senate and 36 governorships. The stock market, which has opinions on all of it, will be shut by the time anyone finds out.

The cash bell rings 2 hours before the first polls close, and the futures sit up for the rest.

Unofficially we have futures*, some cash indexes trade 24/5 via options.

There are choices 😉

Today could be fun or a right royal pain in the ass, whatever the result, there could well be some knee jerk reactions and overreactions to contend with in the markets.

SPX, crude and Bitcoin are all sat on a line worth watching tonight. Scroll on.

*The futures would like it known they are not staying up for the results. They are simply awake.

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Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures: off 0.25% overnight, well back from the NATHs and below the channel.
• Uncle Dow: down 0.58%, sliding away from its own NATHs.
• NazQuack: sat at the bottom of its range box, more on that in the SPX section.
• Uncle Russ: flat overnight, still well off its NATHs.
• Gold: down 1%, slipping under $4,000.
• VIX: I have a nice VIX trade ready for the wind to blow out of the panic or the overinflated panic/fear situation.

SPX – Ready to break or turn.

Price on SPX and the NazQuack are at support, ready to break or turn, and for a change, I’m thinking knee jerk reaction then a turn back to bullish.

Somewhere, a bear has just written that down.

Of course, I’ve gone and jinxed it now I’ve said it, lol.

Over on SPX the range is still a large part of my assessment and we have recent price history to influence the bullish idea, but that doesn’t mean we can’t see a whole lot of shenanigans whichever way the move does eventually unfold.

Knee jerk first, then a turn back to bullish.

Crude – Pushing away from the 104/105 highs again.

Crude oil is pushing away from the 104/105 highs again and through the $100 over/under line I was assessing. It’s actually pushed hard through this and back into the prior range, a push below $95 could well send it to $90/$85.

Back into the prior range.

Bitcoin – Back to prior range lows.

Confluence, if it works. Coincidence, if it doesn’t.

Bitcoin is also back to prior range lows and we have an interesting little confluence or coincidence, I’m sure we will find out which in a few days.

The channel is holding its shape and could push back to the channel and range highs at 80k, and a nudge below 75k could send it lower, and with little in its way to stop it, it could get back to 65k or lower.

76,000/75,000 is the zone to punch through for the bears and the bulls to defend.