Fewer And Fewer Stocks Are Carrying This Market Higher

The S&P went up. The Dow went down. The Russell did both, in order, and would prefer not to discuss it.

SnP and Naz up, Dow down and Rus up then down intraday and the last few days really. VIX still can’t make up its mind playing the Hokey Pokey or Hokey Cokey depending on where you are in the world.

• ES 7,826.75, +0.02%. Coiled right under the NATHs.
• YM 53,874, -0.16%. The one going the other way.
• NQ 30,222.25. Pushing up with the SnP.
• RTY 3,058.4, -0.05%. Up then down, as above.
• VIX 14.58, -0.41%. Undecided, again.
• GC 4,404.1, -0.07%. Flat after the run.
• CL 82.55, +1.65%. The mover of the day.
• BTC/USD 62,843.82. Pushing lower overnight.

Sentiment – Index up, participation down, and that gap has been open since April.

The index has spent 4 months climbing on the shoulders of fewer and fewer stocks, which works beautifully right up until somebody counts them.

Lastly we do have a sentiment chart for a change. On the right you see the line chart of the SnP and on the left you see 3 charts showing the number of stocks above their 200, 50 or 20 period moving averages.

Now back in April we saw what is now a famously head shaking “crash higher”, and just after that April 20th peak we basically start to see less market participation. Despite the main index moving considerably higher since then there is less participation with the number of stocks.

For example, above the 20 period moving average being 83% dropping to around 40%, and right now settling at around 65%, staying between 40 and 65% since April.

You do have to start wondering what’s driving this market higher.

Fugazi?

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SPX – Breakout above the pullback high, failure below the v-swing low.

SPX swings are looking at a breakout move, and using the pullback high for the breakout confirmation and entry makes sense as usual, and the pullback low or v-swing low for a failure and break back into the range.

Always an each way trade choice on ranges 😉

Each way, as always on a range.

Crypto – BTC lower, ETH steady, and the ratio does the rest.

ETH/BTC is moving nicely and with BTC pushing lower overnight with ETH holding steady this is causing this range pattern to play out nicely on ETH/BTC, moving from the range low to the range highs.

Range low to range highs, playing out nicely.

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Premium Poppers: The ETFs – All winners intraday, and IWM does not show RUT’s opening tick.

The bulls and the bears are all sticking a leg in depending on which index you look at, and if we take a look at the ETFs for a change with the premium popper setups you can clearly see all winners intraday for yesterday.

One thing that popped out that made me look here instead of the cash yesterday is because of RUT. It was showing a very wide opening range on bar 1 for the day, whereas on IWM, the ETF for the same instrument, you don’t see that lower tick on the open. As such that does mean that it changes the profile for the initial opening range and subsequent breakout.

I’ll keep an eye on things, but this is also a nice low cost way to get into other indexes with debit or credit spreads.

Same instrument, different open, different profile.

Fun Fact

The UK version did come first, but the slang for the same thing basically won depending on where you were in the world, hence the difference.

• The UK version: British bandleader Al Tabor claimed he wrote “The Hokey Cokey”, choosing the name because “hokey pokey” was an old slang term for the ice cream sellers of his youth, who would call out “Hokey pokey, penny a lump”</cite>.
• The US version: American musicians Larry LaPrise, Charles Macak and Taft Baker recorded their version, and were awarded the US copyright for “The Hokey Pokey” in 1950</cite>. They likely used “Pokey” because “hokey pokey” was already a popular American slang term for cheap ice cream or magic tricks.

Well folks, that’s all for me. I’ve got a few speculative long puts here and there, just in case. My health and headaches have been yoyoing all week so I might as well take Friday off, bang some more chicken soup and get myself fit as a butcher’s dog ready for next week.

Should my doom and gloom prophecy come to a realisation then all fine, I can be happy from the couch, and I can otherwise relax and enjoy what could be a black Friday or Monday. Fingers crossed lol.