My heart bleeds for the crypto bears

Market Snapshot – The gap filled, the VIX up anyway, and Bitcoin off to the races.

The gap has been closed. The market has confirmed it was only ever there as a formality, and would like to move on.

• ES 7,626.00, +0.52%. Gap filled, see below.
• YM 53,493, -0.06%. Still lagging.
• NQ 29,532.75. Off the highs.
• RTY 3,039.8, -0.03%. Doing something similar to SPX.
• VIX 15.15, +1.81%. Up, despite the pump.
• GC 4,549.8, -0.67%. Off a new high.
• CL 85.50, +1.30%. The breakout is developing, see below.
• BTC/USD 70,857.16. That’s the surprise news pump.

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SPX – Still bearish, and the futures have already broken the Asian lows.

The system is still bearish, which after a news pump and a gap fill is less a forecast than a refusal to be distracted.

On the lower time frames for the swings the system is still technically bearish despite the push higher to fill the gap, and now we are near the lows and still assessing for that breakout.

And with the overnight futures already pushing lower, breaking the Asian session lows, this could well be the bear break I’ve been waiting, if not hoping, for.

RUT of course doing something similar, so until we see a proper break I’ll just have it as a foot note.

Near the lows, still assessing, and the futures are already going.

Crude Oil – Yesterday’s call, developing exactly as described.

CL, crude oil, is developing the breakout move described yesterday and I’m expecting a quick’ish pump of a bullish move.

Debit spread in the premarket for me. Let’s see where this takes us.

Options target set, so a little push is all I need, and a more than average day’s move will take me there.

Called it yesterday, took it this morning.

Crypto – Monster bar, 0.0320 reached, sitting in cash.

ETH/BTC price pumped from the range low to the range highs on the surprise news, wiping a lot of crypto bears, which I’m sure you will have seen in the various news. And my heart bleeds for not a single one of them.

Price at the range high means that I’m now assessing for the break or the turn, and optimistically adjusted my target up to the breakout level noted on the charts, while waiting for the V-Entry pattern to develop for a potential bear turn.

That target is 0.0320, and the maths behind it is simple enough: the range height added to the range high, projected upwards.

And then I wake up to this monster bar. Target reached. Sitting in cash and looking for my next opportunity.

Woke up to the monster bar, and the target was already there.

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Premium Poppers – Risk free before the open, and 1 position I buggered up.

The Premium Poppers pulled the premiums across the board again today.

For me I built a risk free day before the markets opened, and if I keep myself honest, 1 small position buggered up my lower profit level. Which is the downside to being a little more aggressive on sloppy days.

Interesting, the premarket was smoother than a cashmere codpiece.

Anyway, despite missing out on locking one of my profit targets, the day for me was a small gain.

And of course the AntiVestor community continues to keep pulling the premiums. Well done.

• Don E. “closed SPX Bull BO for 50%, good luck to all who are able to transform into a butterfly.”
• Eddy “Same here: closed SPX Bull BO for 50%, no butterfly :-)”
• Keith F. “My bias was down at first this morning. Good thing I followed the rules. 50% on PP this morning. In hindsight this was a perfect trade lol.”
• Scott K. “I took an spx bear spread during pre-market. I wanted to try the mechanics since I had never done one. The futures had opened below Tuesday’s close so I took that, but just before the spike this morning!! It did work out, closing for a 50% profit, but it definitely isn’t as mechanical as letting the PP settings give you the signal.”
• RJ M “just scalping way up at the 7740/7745 level on SPX” and later “SPX long just hit the 50% mark. (for me at least, entered at 10:39).”
• Silas P. posted the trade live: sell to open the 7715 put, buy to open the 7710 put, filled at $1.10 credit, profit target $0.55 debit, stop loss $2.20 debit.
• Bill H “just got in the SPX few mins ago, been in the RUTTY since yesterday close… so that was a stick save for me :)”
• KBL Destinations Trading LLC “10:30am ET SPY CALLS….. Thanks POPPER!!”

Risk free by the open, and the community did the rest.

Fun Fact

Since the premarket was smoother than a cashmere codpiece.

The word comes from the Middle English “cod”, meaning scrotum, and the thing itself started out purely practical, a triangle of cloth devised to fill the gap where the two separate legs of a man’s hose met. By the 16th century it had been padded and enlarged into a status symbol, and it was also, on occasion, used as a purse, for storing small items like money and handkerchiefs.

So the original codpiece was, quite literally, where a man kept his profits.