Month End Grind Drags On, SPX Bear Adds, Crude Reclaims $81

ES futures have printed another inside bar and the overnight moves have dinged the high, so once again I have to assume this is a potential false move and that the real move is bearish, at least for the day.

Drop down to the lower time frames and you will see a clear range over the last 3 to 4 days, which we will come to on the cash SPX chart. RUT has the same. It is only NazQuack and Uncle Dow that are literally doing polar opposites.

• ES (SPX): 7,482.25 / +0.20% / another inside bar, the high got dinged, false move assumed, full read below
• YM (Uncle Dow): 52,978 / +0.13% / parked up near the highs, one half of the polar opposite
• NQ (NazQuack): 27,929.25 / -0.11% / the other half, and nowhere near its own highs
• RTY (Uncle Russ): 2,972.00 / +0.23% / same range, same story as SPX, full read below
• VIX: 18.19 / -0.05% / still elevated, same as Monday’s assessment
• GC (Gold): 4,036.80 / +0.20% / ticking along quietly, no read today
• CL (Crude): 81.94 / +3.55% / a floor at last, full read below
• BTC: 64,369.55 / +0.82% / grinding away with the rest of crapto, full read below

SPX: Sideways Confirmed, And The Bear Just Got Bigger

On the swing chart you can see the clear sideways we have been talking about all week, and the Bollinger Bands are completely flatlined now as well, which confirms what we already knew.

The TnT software has flagged another new bear. It is more of an updated bear setup than a brand new one, and it has turned up conveniently right at the range highs with a target down at the range lows. That is one of my 6 money making patterns, sat there in plain sight.

The quality score on this update is actually a 2x premium setup. As I am already bearish, I will use this one to add in rather than open something fresh.

Directionally, the move sideways is expected to continue until something new develops, which in this case means a breakout. Until then, the range is the trade.

Sideways until something breaks. Adding to the bear.

Collect Weekly Income
Learn More

Uncle Russ: A Bull Setup I Let Walk

RUT is looking very similar, and there was a new bull setup which I did not take, largely because I was away from the desk for most of yesterday.

As such I remain bearish at or near the range highs, and I will stay that way for the moment until we get a bull or a bear breakout. Nothing else changes that.

I am being a little lazy and practical by doing this, and I am comfortable saying so. The 6 money making patterns are a little in conflict with the mechanical system here, and to be fair I would only be delaying a bull entry by 10 to 15 points, which is not that much in the big scheme of things.

So rather than trade bullish into a clear barrier, better to wait this one out briefly.

Bearish near the highs. The bull can wait.

Collect Weekly Income
Learn More

Crude Oil: A Floor At $81, And The Bears Got Gobbled

Crude oil is finally finding a floor at the $81 level, at least briefly.

The bull VWAP was tickled and teased to possibly trap the last of the bears, gobble gobble, and then overnight, zip wizz bang, we are back bullish again.

Now I am just waiting for the swing high to be taken and the bull swing program can resume properly.

Bear triggers are still in the same assessment zone below $81 to $80, although given the drop yesterday, perhaps $79 would be the better choice.

Swing high taken and the bull program resumes.

BTC And TOTAL: Crapto Is Still Frozen Solid

BTC, or more specifically TOTAL, really highlights the overall crypto, or crapto, grind. Nothing generally speaking is moving anywhere.

Dropping to the lower time frames for quick, short lived moves may well be the best of it, but I do not really fancy doing that on crypto.

I am sure there is something moving somewhere. But I will just stick with my BTC swings until this breaks and the winter is finally over.

Nothing moving. BTC swings until the winter ends.

Premium Poppers: One And Done, VWAP Did The Heavy Lifting

The Premium Poppers and the day trade single worked out great again on SPX. One and done.

There was a little early blood pressure spike as price moved back inside the range briefly, which is never the most relaxing thing to watch. But the day’s VWAP held, and the rest is profitable history.

Worth flagging the management note that came out of it, because it is the useful bit. Two closes back inside the range is the warning sign, and you do not want that turning into a max loss on SPX. A close below VWAP for the day can be used to manage tighter, and it is rule defined rather than a gut call. Unofficial new research for now, but it earned its keep yesterday.

Well done team. Another bag full from the community.

VWAP held. One and done. Bag full.

Students are smashing the results, AGAIN!

Collect Morning Income
– Learn More

Fun Fact

Since the Bollinger Bands are flatlined this morning, here is where they came from.

John Bollinger built them in the early 1980s, and the entire reason they exist is that he reckoned fixed-width trading bands were useless. His argument was that volatility is dynamic rather than static, which was not the accepted view at the time, so he keyed the bands to standard deviation and let them tighten and widen on their own.

Which is the point worth remembering when they go flat like this. A flatlined band is not telling you direction. It is telling you the market is storing something up.

Source: bollingerbands.com