Post-Fourth Bull Grind Rolls On As Uncle Dow Sprints New Highs

Market Snapshot

Generally bullish on the stock indexes into today. Sleepy Uncle Dow clearly has some excitement in him, pushing again to new all-time highs both yesterday and in the pre-market futures this morning. Gold, crude oil, and Bitcoin all look like they’ve bottomed out for the moment, with gold and BTC showing the clearer turnaround on the dailies. Crude oil needs a sneak peek down on the lower timeframes to see it, although grinding sideways still makes more sense for oil than a full-blown new bull trend.

• ES (SPX) 7,580.75, -0.21%. Sitting at NATHs, bull tape intact.
• YM (Uncle Dow) 53,495, +0.14%. Fresh all-time highs, coffee has finally kicked in.
• NQ (NazQuack) 29,684.50, -0.88%. Small pullback in a still-bullish tape.
• RTY (Uncle Russ) 3,028.90, -0.18%. Grinding the defined range.
• GC (Gold) 4,143.30, -0.79%. Bottomed for the moment, clearer turnaround on the daily.
• CL (Crude) 69.18, +0.85%. Overnight break out of the recent consolidation.
• BTC 63,021.35, -1.53%. Bottomed and looking clearer on the daily read.
• VIX 15.83, +1.74%. Relaxed tape.

SPX – Bull Swing Since Thursday, 7,600 Still In The Tank

Tag n Turn swings have been bullish since Thursday, with a normal scoring. An average, middle-of-the-road setup. Not premium, not below-average, just a workmanlike bull swing.

The bull swing still has potential to the 7,600 level. That’s the objective from here.

Middle of the road, but the road still runs to 7,600.

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Uncle Russ – Grinding The Range, Cautionary Setup

Uncle Russ continues to grind sideways in its defined range. The Tag n Turn software is highlighting a cautionary setup as it’s below-average quality.

From the 6 money-making patterns viewpoint, bullish at range lows and bearish at range highs will get you some setups. That’s where the edge sits when the range is the game.

Alternatively, dropping down to the 10-minute chart, as we discussed last week, will help fine-tune the TnT entries around those range levels.

Trade the edges, or zoom in to the 10-minute for a tighter fix.

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Crude Oil – Range Break Back Into Prior Lows

Crude oil shows a consolidation from last Friday through yesterday, and price can be seen breaking out of that range overnight.

Interestingly, that breakout is a break back into the prior range lows from the end of June, before the gap-fill breakout that took crude lower. So this isn’t a fresh trend break. It’s price stepping back inside a zone it had left.

From here, I’d expect price to push up to the prior range highs and the descending VWAP around the $70.50 to $71 level.

Back into the old neighbourhood, with $70.50 to $71 the next stop.

Yesterday’s Premium Popper – Delivered Again, Wild Card Almost Landed

If I’m honest, I had an emergency “oh bugger” yesterday when I realised the markets were indeed open, and not a half or closed day as I’d thought.

That said, the Premium Popper delivered again. I once again managed it a little differently, locking in a profit and leaving a wild card running, which almost came good again. More on that in a trade debriefing later.

The AntiVestor members were also crushing it again, reporting multiple wins across the room.

Awesome work team.

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Fun Fact – Christmas In July

Historically speaking, the post-4th of July week often has a negative bias according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. They note markets tend to “fizzle a little after 4th July.”

Overall though, July is often considered a Christmas In July. Straight from the Almanac’s own words:

“The rally has failed nine times since 1985. Market conditions and unexpected events can overwhelm any seasonal pattern. But a 78% hit rate and a 2.5% average gain over 12 trading days is a setup worth trading.”

Love a good seasonal stat.