Futures broadly flat into the 08:30 ET payrolls print. Thursday repriced peace lower because Tehran demanded reparations. The 14-point framework remains, somewhat awkwardly, fully unsigned by Iran.
SPX cash 7,337.11. Wednesday’s record sits just above. Today’s NFP is the binary that decides whether the bid returns or yesterday’s reset has further to run.
Bitcoin rejected the 200-day at $82,228 yet again. ETF flows real, $1.63 billion since May 1. Exchange reserves at 7-year lows. The structure is bullish; the chart, unconvinced.
Defence stocks down 13-18% over three months. Energy leadership cracking with Brent under $100. Five mega-caps did half the index’s recent work, which is not, technically, called diversification.
Warsh full Senate vote May 11. Powell stays on the Board through 2028. Trump wants 1% rates. Fed funds 3.50%-3.75%. The chair changes; the conviction gap, somewhat awkwardly, does not.

Records on rumour. SPX 7,365 and Nasdaq 25,838 hit fresh all-time highs Wednesday. Trump described the catalyst as “perhaps, a big assumption.” Markets, having considered, advanced.
Crude collapsed 7% to $95.08 WTI on a peace narrative. Hormuz crossings on Wednesday: zero. The market priced the deal. The Strait remained, somewhat awkwardly, closed.
AMD up 20%. Super Micro up 15%. Corning up 17%. The chip rally now louder than the war it allegedly survived. RSI above 70 flags the obvious.
Bitcoin near $82,000 on three-day ETF streak past $1.16 billion. The asset celebrated as uncorrelated rallied because oil fell. Correlation, considered, returned to its desk.
Today: jobless claims at 8:30 ET, Fed-president remarks, Coinbase earnings tonight after their 14% cut. Friday delivers payrolls. Records meet the data, or vice versa.

S&P closed Tuesday at 7,259.22, a fresh record, whilst Iran was still hitting UAE infrastructure on Monday. The tape decided peace was good enough. VIX agreed.
AMD beat by 9.6% on EPS and guided Q2 to $11.2B at 56% margin. Stock added 15% on top of the 66% year-to-date it already had.
Oil shed 4% Tuesday on Hegseth’s ceasefire confirmation. WTI $102.27, Brent $109.87. Kalshi still says 56% odds Hormuz normalises by August. Both can be true.
Bitcoin cleared $80,000 on May 1’s $629M ETF inflow. Funding rate -5% on 30-day average, which is the carry trade, not a signal. Look beneath.
Disney, Uber, Arm Holdings report pre-market today, alongside Novo Nordisk and CVS. NFP Friday, consensus 49,000 jobs, the new soft-landing baseline. Twelve months ago it was the recession alarm.

Futures tick up 0.2% after Monday’s 557-point Dow flush. UAE intercepted Iranian missiles. The ceasefire is now defended by Patriot batteries, not the April press release.
SPX cue: Friday’s record at 7,230 sits 30 points above implied open. AMD reports Tuesday afternoon. The bar Palantir set is now distinctly ungenerous to neighbours.
Bitcoin tags $80,500 for the first time since January. Spot BTC ETFs took $629.7M on Friday after redeeming Monday through Wednesday. Late, but cheerful, as ever.
Palantir delivered 85% revenue growth, beat EPS by 18%, and raised guide to $7.66B. Stock added 1.5% after-hours. Wall Street, having considered this, applauded politely.
Watch the Warsh Senate vote, AMD guide Tuesday, Friday’s payrolls print, and Hormuz shipping data. Energy was Monday’s lone green sector. The other ten declined comment.

Futures mixed at record levels: ES up 0.1%, NQ up 0.21%, YM down 0.2%. April delivered the broad index’s biggest monthly gain in years on five straight weekly gains.
Trump launched Project Freedom Sunday with 15,000 troops and 100 aircraft. A tanker took projectiles 78 miles north of Fujairah hours before. Iran called it a breach.
Bitcoin reclaimed 80,000 dollars on the announcement. ETFs took 630 million on May 1. April delivered the best monthly inflows since October, ending four months of bleeding.
Warsh nomination heads to full Senate week of May 11. Powell’s chair term ends May 15. Yields holding 4.3% on the 10-year. Markets price one cut maximum for 2026.
April jobs report Friday: consensus 53,000 versus prior 178,000. GameStop bid 56 billion for eBay. Asia tech up 5%. Hang Seng rose 1.4%. Kospi at a record.

S&P 500 closed April at 7,209, first above 7,200, best month since 2020. Apple beat. Meta tripped. Microsoft tripped. The tape took the win regardless.
SPX cue: futures flat at 06:45 ET, holding the cash close. 7,200 is the new floor. Apple’s open will tell you whether records are technical or real.
Bitcoin clawed back $77K from a $75.5K overnight flush. ETF outflows now stretch three sessions. Fear and Greed at 33, lower by fourteen points week on week.
Powell held 3.50-3.75% in his last meeting as chair. Four dissents, most since 1992. Warsh advances. December cut off the table. Powell stays as governor anyway.
Brent touched $126 wartime peak Thursday before settling $114, WTI $105. Hormuz still shut, blockade extended. Exxon, Chevron, Moderna report. April jobs due before bell.