Stocks Fell 3.5%, Gold Fell 3.7%, and the 2-Year Turned Up for Work

Nasdaq Futures Are 0.7% Higher. Intel Is Still 28.6% Lower. Monday’s bounce meets Friday’s damage, with Apple reporting today

After-hours trading is where a company’s results are priced by the people still awake. Friday is where they are priced by everyone else.

On Thursday night the wires marked Intel 23.03% lower, Reddit 18.21% lower and Amazon 7.3% lower. On Friday the cash session filed its own figures. Intel closed 28.58% lower at 65.76. Reddit closed 29.22% lower at 91.73. Amazon closed 1.41% lower at 240.35.

Two of the three marks were too kind. One was too cruel. The wire marks got none of the three right, which is the usual condition of being up late.

Correction: on Thursday evening Intel was reported down 23.03%. It was down 28.58%. We regret the optimism.

This book scored those marks because it said it would. Under its own rules, a named cause is marked the next session. Intel and Reddit continued, so the results go down as causes that held. Amazon faded, so its after-hours mark goes down as a miss.

Zoom out and the number that mattered on Friday was the Nasdaq 100: down 3.46% to 28,384.85. The S&P 500 lost 1.82%. The Dow lost 1.09%. Technology was the worst sector proxy at -4.89%; energy the best at +1.91%. On Nasdaq, decliners outnumbered advancers 3,626 to 1,275, a count of all Nasdaq-listed issues, not only those in the index.

What drove the index? This book looked. It checked the company releases, the wire feed and the headline services. It found the results stamped between 20:01 and 20:07 UTC on Thursday, an AI capex headline at 12:42 UTC Friday, and a Barkin rate-hike headline at 16:23 UTC. It ran the clock: 78.37% of the Nasdaq 100’s fall arrived in the opening gap, after the results and the spending headline. But a result is a cause for its own stock, and this book holds no index weights. So the index fall has no named cause in this book. The capex story is what the market said; the tape fell after it, which is timing, not cause.

Meanwhile the havens were tested. The 2-year Treasury closed at 4.56%, its lowest close of October, down 5 basis points. Spot gold, which exists for days like this, fell 3.68%. This book searched the wire feed and the headline services for a gold-specific stamp on Friday and found none, so gold’s fall, silver’s 5.93% and the VIX’s 12.91% rise have no named cause in this book.

Monday has arrived with a different mood. December Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.71% above Friday’s close at the 07:45 UTC capture. Crude is 3.7% below Friday’s settlement, with talks between Qatar and Iran reported over the weekend. Apple and Palantir report today. ISM manufacturing prints at 15:00 UTC.

A 0.7% bounce against a 3.5% fall is not a recovery. It is a morning.

The One That Mattered

The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.5%, and the textbook says that is the afternoon gold earns its keep. Bonds did their part: the 2-year closed at 4.56%, October’s lowest. The dollar barely moved. Gold spot fell 3.7% to 3,872.86 and December silver 5.9%. The textbook reasons for gold to rise were present, and gold went the other way. Why did gold fall 3.7% on the day the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.5%? We are not answering it here. We went looking in today’s Macro Edge. https://antivestor.com/macro-edge

Our Top Trader Uses This 9:50 AM Secret to Target $500 Per Day Regardless Of Which Direction The Market Moves – https://antivestor.com/ppp-webinar

Stock Market Edge

The Premarket Bounce Is 0.7%. The Damage It Bounces From Is 3.5%. Futures are higher, the havens are confused, and Apple reports today

Premarket snapshot:

At the 07:45 to 07:50 UTC capture, December S&P 500 futures stood 0.35% above Friday’s close at 7,640.50 and December Nasdaq 100 futures 0.71% higher at 28,737.25. December Dow futures were up 0.20% and Russell futures 0.43%. Nasdaq futures had been 1.02% higher at 06:00 UTC overnight and eased into the capture; a re-quote at 08:15 UTC read 0.76%. The wires called it a relief bounce at 04:47 UTC, by which time the contract had already made more than half its overnight move. The bounce is a dawn figure. Dawn figures have been known to oversleep.

Sector rotation:

Friday’s sector table split cleanly. Energy +1.91%, staples +1.41%, utilities +0.67%, health care +0.45%. Technology -4.89%, communication services -1.29%. The semiconductor funds took the worst of it: SOXX -8.24%, SMH -6.98%, AMD -10.88%, Nvidia -4.22%. NYSE decliners beat advancers 1,717 to 977. Havens that reported for duty on Friday included the 2-year. Gold sent apologies.

Earnings or guidance:

Intel and Reddit fell further in the cash session than after hours; Amazon recovered most of its after-hours loss. Exxon rose 2.16% and Chevron 1.75% after Friday-morning results. Apple and Palantir report today, AMD on Tuesday. Apple fell 1.23% on Friday having reported nothing at all.

Cross-asset nuance:

The 2-year fell 5 basis points to 4.56% and the 10-year 4 to 4.94%, on the same morning the employment cost index (ECI) rose 0.8% in the third quarter. Last week this book said the front end had read the quarter; it closed Friday below Thursday’s 4.61%, so that mark is a hit on Friday’s close, with ISM and payrolls still to test it. Volatility rose: the VIX closed at 19.42 from 17.20 and the MOVE bond-volatility index at 100.21, up 7.12%. December WTI settled 104.12, up 2.08%, then fell to 100.25 by 08:15 UTC. Part of that fall came in Friday’s post-settlement trade and at the reopen, before the first timed headline on Qatari-led talks with Iran at 23:01 UTC Sunday. Friday’s rise has no intraday wire this book could place before it.

Crypto Market Edge

Bitcoin Had a Quiet Weekend, Which Counts as News Now A 1% rise, a recovered exchange and a flow table that will not load

Price snapshot:

Bitcoin stood at 78,253.53 on the Monday 00:00 UTC mark, 1.02% above Sunday’s mark and 3.67% below Thursday’s 81,237.85. Last week this book said the Binance transfer would keep bitcoin under that Thursday level by Monday. It did, though bitcoin was already 4% under it by Friday, so the mark scores the level more than the attribution. Ether was 2,272.54, up 0.88%.

Flows and positioning:

Farside’s bitcoin page returned an error and its ether page stopped at 23 October. Relays carry Friday outflows. This book publishes no flow figure from a relay, which leaves it with nothing to say about ETF flows and complete confidence in it.

Leadership and rotation:

Ether moved with bitcoin on each daily mark. No crypto-specific catalyst beyond Binance was located for the weekend.

Catalysts and roadmap:

Binance said 95% of the losses were covered and reopened withdrawals on 1 November. Strategy had filed no new 8-K by 07:43 UTC, so the count of sales stays at two. Friday’s payrolls are the next macro test.

TL;DR

• Intel fell 28.58% and Reddit 29.22% on Friday, deeper than their after-hours marks; Amazon closed 1.41% lower after being marked 7.3% down overnight.
• The Nasdaq 100 lost 3.46%, and 78.37% of it arrived in the opening gap; results are causes for their own stocks, so the index fall has no named cause here.
• Gold spot fell 3.68% while the 2-year fell to 4.56%, October’s lowest close: the bond behaved like a haven and the metal behaved like a stock.
• Bitcoin rose 1.02% on the Monday mark to 78,253.53, still below Thursday’s 81,237.85; Binance reopened withdrawals and the primary flow tables still would not load.
• December Nasdaq futures were 0.71% higher at the capture and crude 3.7% lower on reported Iran talks; Apple reports today and payrolls land on Friday.

Fun Fact

General Motors Is Changing Exchanges The ticker stays, the building does not

General Motors is moving its share listing from the New York Stock Exchange to Nasdaq, effective 17 November, according to its own regulatory filing. The ticker stays GM. The building gets one fewer bell-ringing booking.