Records set on a deal Trump called an assumption.

Stock Market Edge

Records on the rumour. The footnote remains unsigned. Earnings tape and AI capex doing the structural work. Peace narrative doing the loud work.

1. Premarket snapshot: S&P 500 futures sat little changed near Wednesday’s 7,365.12 record close into 06:30 ET, with Nasdaq futures holding near 25,838 and Dow futures steady close to 49,910. VIX traded near 16, well off its April peak above 28. Russell 2000 futures hovered around 2,904, the small-cap index having lifted 1.5% on Wednesday because the war was, presumably, almost over.
2. Sector rotation: Semis the unambiguous leader, the way a soloist is the leader of a band that has stopped playing. AMD finished up 20% post-earnings, Super Micro 15%, Corning 17% on the Nvidia optical-plant partnership. Energy producers were the only S&P 500 sector to fall as crude tumbled. Communication services lifted on Disney. Staples lagged.
3. Earnings or guidance: Disney’s Q2 revenue $25.17B beat consensus by $320M. EPS $1.57 versus $1.50 expected. Streaming margin first time double-digit at 10.6%, six years after launch. Buyback target raised to $8B. AMD’s Q2 revenue outlook came in above consensus. Today: Shell, McDonald’s, Gilead, McKesson, CoreWeave, Coinbase, Airbnb.
4. Cross-asset nuance: Crude WTI closed $95.08, Brent $101.27, both off intraday lows of $88 and $96. Treasury yields drifted higher on rising rate-hike odds, with CME FedWatch showing 13% rate-cut odds for 2026. The peace dividend, in yields, is so far an IOU.

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📊 There’s a level on SPX I’m watching closely this morning. My full analysis briefing has it – plus what happens if we hold it, and what happens if we don’t. [Read it here →]

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Crypto Market Edge

Bitcoin returns to the level it last saw in January Three-day ETF streak. Peace-trade tailwind. Coinbase’s payroll, somewhat smaller.

1. Price snapshot: Bitcoin traded near $82,000 in late Wednesday hours, the highest level since 31 January, after testing $80,619 resistance earlier in the week. Ethereum cleared $2,400 for the first time since the spring drawdown, roughly 50% off October 2025 peaks. The CoinDesk 20 Index gained alongside, with XRP and Solana posting marginal advances on lighter volume.
2. Flows & positioning: Spot BTC ETFs logged three consecutive inflow days totalling more than $1.16 billion, led by BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. May 1 inflows hit $630M, May 4 added $532M. Cumulative net inflows since January 2024 launch reach $58.72B, still $2.47B short of October’s peak. The recovery is real and incomplete, in that order.
3. Leadership & rotation: Spot leadership clean on BTC and ETH with strong volume on the breakout. Privacy names led altcoin outperformance, with NEAR adding 16% and ICP 10.4%. ZEC and DASH joined, the privacy trade returning the same week the Strait of Hormuz might reopen. Stablecoin float expanding alongside.
4. Catalysts & roadmap: Coinbase Q1 earnings post-close after a 14% workforce cut announced earlier this week. Strategy posted a $12.54B Q1 loss on the prior BTC slide, holdings still at 818,334 BTC. The treasury trade survives, somewhat awkwardly, on the assets it was built to accumulate. Friday payrolls remains the macro pivot.

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TL;DR – The Bottom Line

• Records on rumour. SPX 7,365 and Nasdaq 25,838 hit fresh all-time highs Wednesday. Trump described the catalyst as “perhaps, a big assumption.” Markets, having considered, advanced.
• Crude collapsed 7% to $95.08 WTI on a peace narrative. Hormuz crossings on Wednesday: zero. The market priced the deal. The Strait remained, somewhat awkwardly, closed.
• AMD up 20%. Super Micro up 15%. Corning up 17%. The chip rally now louder than the war it allegedly survived. RSI above 70 flags the obvious.
• Bitcoin near $82,000 on three-day ETF streak past $1.16 billion. The asset celebrated as uncorrelated rallied because oil fell. Correlation, considered, returned to its desk.
• Today: jobless claims at 8:30 ET, Fed-president remarks, Coinbase earnings tonight after their 14% cut. Friday delivers payrolls. Records meet the data, or vice versa.

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📌 Fun Fact

The Strait That Wouldn’t Open Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of global oil supply.

On a normal day, hundreds of ships cross the Strait of Hormuz. On Wednesday, none did. On Tuesday, one. The waterway is barely 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, with the shipping channel itself only two miles wide in each direction.