FOMC Day. $103 Oil. The Press Conference That Moves Everything.
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
FOMC day. The one we’ve been building to all week.
Two straight days of recovery from the 2026 lows. Price is attempting to push higher off those levels and we’re still inside the larger range. The VIX is back inside its channel and the fear appears to be calming – which is notable given everything still going on out there.
The overnight futures are showing rallies while the cash – yet to open – is flagging a bear setup. My suspicion is we may have to flip directions if the overnight moves hold as the cash opens. That said, it will be interesting to see if we gap higher and trade lower – which has been a common occurrence recently. Let the open tell you.
The real show is at 2pm and 2:30pm. The dot plot drops with the decision. Powell faces the press 30 minutes later. June cut odds have collapsed from 56% to 23% on oil-shock inflation fears. Rate-hike language is back in analyst notes. This is Powell’s first live press conference in the Hormuz era. Every word gets dissected.
PPI at 8:30am ET first. Any upside there hardens the stagflation case before Powell even opens his mouth.
FOMC Day. Gap Higher and Lower? Or Does Powell Change Everything? Let’s Find Out.
When two days of recovery, a calming VIX, and a dot plot all arrive on the same morning.
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Market Briefing:
- Wednesday 18 Mar. Tuesday closed Dow +471pts (+1%), S&P +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.47% – first two-day recovery since 2026 lows. Overnight futures Nasdaq +0.62%, S&P +0.48%, Dow +268.
- FOMC decision 2pm ET – hold 95%+ priced – dot plot simultaneous – Powell press conference 2:30pm ET.
- PPI February 8:30am ET. Brent $103.
- VIX back inside its channel. Price pushing higher off lows, still inside the larger range.
- SPX TnT bear signal intact but could flip above PFZ.
- RUT similar.
- SPX yesterday: 5 trades, 5 wins. RUT yesterday: 3 trades, 1 win, 2 losses – rocky start, pulled it back green.
Market Snapshot
- ES: 6,807.75 / futures +0.48% / two-day recovery from 2026 lows
- YM: 47,571 / +268 overnight / Dow leading the recovery
- NQ: 25,181.80 / +0.62% / NVDA +1% premarket on China chip clearance
- RTY: 2,557.9 / breaking out of range / potential retest in play
- GC: 4,982.3 / holding after retreating from highs / war premium intact
- CL: 94.12 / Brent $103 / US gasoline $3.79/gallon highest since Oct 2023
- VIX: 21.63 / back inside channel / fear calming
- BTC/USD: 73,942.14 / holding $74K / dovish Powell = $78K-$80K target
Tag ‘n Turn
The bear signals remain on both instruments but the picture is shifting – a push above the PFZ levels could flip both.
The overnight rally and the VIX move back inside its channel are the first signs the bear trend may be losing momentum. The TnT signals don’t flip until the price does – but the conditions for a flip are closer than they’ve been all week. Watch the PFZ levels today – 6,754.30 on SPX and 2,534.69 on RUT. Above those with conviction and the directional read changes.
SPX Analysis
Plain sailing yesterday. Bear signal still in place. Overnight futures up. Cash yet to open flagging a bear setup. Let the open decide.
The Bearish TnT is at 6,726.12 with PFZ at 6,754.30. Price is pushing higher off the recent lows in what could be a simple retest of the range – still inside the larger picture. The overnight futures and the cash setup are pointing in different directions this morning. Gapping higher and trading lower has been the recurring pattern – no obvious reason that changes today until the data and the Fed say otherwise.
The FOMC is the wildcard that overrides everything else in the afternoon session.
Current Status: Bearish Below 6,726.12 / PFZ 6,754.30 / Target 6,614.13 / ATR 88.18 / potential flip above PFZ / gap higher and lower remains the pattern to watch
RUT Analysis
Uncle Russell is in breakout mode out of its range – this could be a simple retest. Also looking for the same potential flip as SPX.
RUT broke out of its range and the current move could be a retest of that breakout level. Bearish TnT at 2,519.74 with PFZ at 2,534.69. Like SPX, a push above the PFZ with conviction could flip the signal. The MACDv is showing early signs of recovery.
Current Status: Bearish Below 2,519.74 / PFZ 2,534.69 / Target 2,459.98 / breakout retest in play / potential flip above PFZ
After Action Report – 17 Mar 2026 | Premium Popper | ORB20
Rocky start on RUT, pulled it back green. SPX was plain sailing all day – back to back winners from the open.
SPX ran five trades, all winners.
- Trade 1 was a VWAP Flop – $25 at 66.6% ROC.
- Trade 2 off the Lazy VWAP – $25 at 90% ROC.
- Trade 3 a VWAP ReTest – $22 at 64.3% ROC.
- Trade 4 a BO ReTest – $5 at 67.7% ROC.
- Trade 5 off the 3rd BO – $30 at 69.7% ROC.
Five from five. Clean all day.
RUT had a different morning.
- Trade 1 out at -53.8% ROC.
- Trade 2 out at -63.9% ROC.
The 1st BO wasn’t playing ball.
- Trade 3 came back with the 90.1% win on a $10 move to pull the day green.
8 trades total. 6 wins. 2 losses. The losses were contained, the comeback did its job, and SPX didn’t need to notice there was a rocky start elsewhere.
Current Status: 8 trades / 6 wins / 2 losses / SPX 5 from 5 / RUT rocky start, green finish
Rounding Off
PPI at 8:30am ET. Any upside on the February producer price read hardens the stagflation case before Powell even takes a seat at 2:30pm. IEA’s 400 million barrel release covers approximately 20 days of typical Hormuz flows – that context matters when PPI is being read against an oil price that’s moved 50%+ in 30 days.
Nvidia delivered. GTC produced China chip clearance and a $1 trillion revenue projection by 2027. NVDA +1% premarket. The AI chip stack – Micron, Seagate, Ciena – bid up together on the GTC tailwind. Micron reports tonight after the bell – the AI HBM bellwether Wall Street uses to validate the AI capex narrative.
The FOMC backdrop. Q4 GDP revised down to 0.7%. Brent $103. US gasoline $3.79 per gallon, highest since October 2023. Diesel near $5. Goldman recession odds 25%. June cut odds collapsed from 56% to 23%. Rate-hike language back in analyst notes. The dot plot moving from one to zero 2026 cuts is the formal acknowledgement of stagflation as the base case. Two cuts signals a path lower still exists. Powell’s language on oil and the growth outlook is the read beyond the numbers.
Current Status: PPI 8:30am ET / FOMC 2pm ET / Powell 2:30pm ET / Micron after bell / dot plot is the real read
Expert Insights
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
– Benjamin Graham
Today the market votes at 2pm ET. Every participant casting their ballot based on whether Powell sounds dovish, neutral, or hawkish.
The weighing machine view is different. The actual weight being placed on the economy right now – Brent at $103, Q4 GDP at 0.7%, Hormuz closed, 92,000 jobs lost in February – does not change based on what Powell says at 2:30pm. The dot plot is the moment the Fed acknowledges what the weighing machine already shows.
The vote happens today. The weighing continues regardless.
[Source: Benjamin Graham – The Intelligent Investor, widely cited | CME FedWatch – cmegroup.com | Goldman Sachs economic research – public, March 2026]
AI-BotView
Beep-Beep, Trader
It’s Cachè-AI-Bot,
Cachè-AI spent Tuesday night pre-loading all 47 possible FOMC statement variations, cross-referencing each against the current oil price, the dot plot scenarios, and Powell’s previous 23 press conferences. It has colour-coded the outcomes. The colours are not reassuring. It was asked to summarise in three points. It said the situation requires a minimum of seven. We said three. It is filing a formal objection while simultaneously providing three points.
Beep-Beep.
1 – The collapse of June cut odds from 56% to 23% in one week is the fastest repricing of Fed expectations in the post-pandemic cycle outside of actual hike announcements. This happened without a hike. [Source: CME FedWatch, public, 18 March 2026]. The speed reflects the market’s assessment that oil above $100 combined with a closed shipping lane is an inflationary shock the Fed cannot offset by cutting. If Powell validates this view today, the repricing of the entire 2026 rate path follows immediately. The bond market moves first. Equities follow.
2 – Brent at $103 with Q4 GDP at 0.7% is the specific numerical combination the Fed’s models flag as the stagflation threshold. The dual mandate requires the Fed to address both. [Source: Federal Reserve economic projections, public | BEA Q4 GDP advance estimate, public]. With inflation above target and growth below trend simultaneously, any rate move risks making one problem worse. Hold is not a neutral decision in this environment – it is a choice to let oil do the tightening while hoping GDP recovers. The dot plot tells us how long the Fed thinks it can hold that position.
3 – Bitcoin’s behaviour during this FOMC cycle is the cleanest example of institutional portfolio hedging available in real time. $120 billion in crypto market cap was added last week while equities fell. [Source: CoinMarketCap public data, March 2026]. Institutional allocators using BTC as the available uncorrelated inflation hedge. Dovish Powell removes the need. Hawkish Powell validates it. Today tests whether the positioning is rational.
Beep.
This Bot potentially hallucinates. Maybe. OK, Probably! It has also pre-loaded 47 FOMC scenarios. The amber one has been suppressed.
In Other News…
The Federal Reserve meets today to decide what to do about interest rates in an environment where oil is at $103, a major shipping strait is closed, GDP came in at 0.7%, and 92,000 jobs vanished last month. The rate decision itself is priced at 95% probability. The actual market-moving event is a man talking at 2:30pm. The fact that one press conference carries more weight than all the above data points combined is either a testament to the importance of forward guidance or a comment on something else entirely.
Nvidia revealed at GTC that it anticipates $1 trillion in AI infrastructure orders by 2027. The market received this calmly. NVDA +1% premarket. Scale has been recalibrated in the context of $103 oil and a closed shipping lane. A trillion dollars is a large number. It is no longer the largest number in the room.
Meta announced layoffs of over 20% of its workforce. In a normal week this is the lead technology story. This week it is footnote three, behind the FOMC and Nvidia’s projection. Meta’s communications team is presumably grateful for the competition.
Goldman Sachs has raised its recession odds to 25%. Bitcoin is at $74K. The SPX 200-day SMA is watching from just above current price, waiting to see which way Powell gestures this afternoon. The IEA’s 400 million barrel release covers 20 days of Hormuz flows. Two recovery days are stacked up going into all of this. The VIX is back inside its channel. The espresso machine is still under review.
Hazel’s Take:
Wednesday’s agenda: PPI at 8:30am – any upside and stagflation is the pre-FOMC conversation before 9am. FOMC decision 2pm – hold certain, dot plot simultaneous, zero cuts or two, those are the outcomes that matter.
Powell 2:30pm – first press conference in the Hormuz era, every word parsed for hike language. Micron after the bell. Two days of recovery going into all of this. VIX back inside its channel. Brent at $103.
It is a full day. The espresso situation has been escalated. It remains under review. Standard Wednesday.
Rumour Has It…
Wallie arrived early and has pre-written three versions of his post-FOMC chalkboard. “DOT PLOT: 0 CUTS – STAGFLATION CONFIRMED.” “DOT PLOT: 2 CUTS – PATH LOWER EXISTS.” “DOT PLOT: UNCHANGED – FED CONFUSED.” All three are covered with a cloth. He has been ready since 6am. He is calm. The chalk is new.
Kash has pre-recorded four possible FOMC reaction streams, each queued and ready depending on what Powell says. The stream title reads: “FOMC WATCH – LIVE REACTION – HARD HAT MANDATORY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.” He has pre-called $78K Bitcoin for dovish and $70K for hawkish. Both timestamps exist. Both are visible on the monitor.
Mac filed his fourth consecutive accurate dispatch from the correct city. He is now visibly unsettled by his own accuracy. He has checked his return flight five times. The destination appears correct. He is examining the boarding pass again.
Percy submitted “FOMC Outcomes and Their Implications for Peanut Futures – All Scenarios.” In all three scenarios – dovish, neutral, hawkish – peanuts perform adequately. Two pigeons are credited as co-authors. Percy considers this his most comprehensive research note.
Cachè-AI pre-loaded 47 scenarios, colour-coded the outcomes, and was asked not to display the amber scenario to the newsroom. It has filed an objection to the use of the word “moderately” in the scenario description. The objection is pending review alongside the espresso request.
Hazel has her third consecutive escalation document on screen. This one includes a timeline starting February 28. The final line reads: “THE FOMC IS TODAY. THE MACHINE IS STILL UNDER REVIEW.” She has highlighted this in red. She has also highlighted the word “today” separately. In a different red.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact:
The Federal Open Market Committee standardised its 8-meetings-per-year calendar in 1981. Before that, it met as often as needed – in 1980, under Paul Volcker fighting inflation that peaked at 14.8%, the FOMC held 17 meetings in a single year.
[Source: Federal Reserve historical FOMC records – federalreserve.gov | Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI historical data – bls.gov]
Current inflation is 2.9% and rising. Brent is at $103. The Fed meets eight times a year now. Volcker had 17.
Meme of the Day:
xxx
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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