The Market’s Not Crashing… It’s Rebooting (Poorly)
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Remember when April meant earnings beats, BBQ season, and a smooth S&P melt-up? Not this year. This April, the SPX is doing its best impression of a teenager slamming their bedroom door and yelling, “YOU DON’T UNDERSTAND ME!”
The MAG7, once the invincible Avengers of the market, have turned into the DULL7. Tesla’s crashing harder than a Windows Vista update. Apple looks allergic to innovation. Nvidia just ate a 7% loss in a single day… and that was before earnings.
Meanwhile, the only stocks going up are toothpaste and toilet paper makers. You know… the essentials for when everything else hits the fan.
This ain’t just a little pullback. It’s a regime change. Trump 2.0 has arrived and markets are reacting like it’s a sequel no one asked for. Tariffs. Trade wars. Tantrums. All wrapped in a nice little inflation bow.
So what’s a systematic trader to do? Stick to the system. Follow the pulse bars. And profit from the panic.
Let’s dive into what the market’s really telling us…
SPX 2025: The Post-Election Hangover
YTD Performance (Price): -10% YTD Performance (Total Return): ~-9%
Compare that to last year, when SPX was +10% by April. That’s a 20% swing in sentiment.
2024 Q1 was the strongest since 2019 2025 Q1 is one of the worst post-election starts ever
- Inflation’s sticky
- Fed’s still hawkish
- Trump’s reinstated tariffs spooked global markets
- MAG7 stocks, the giants that carried 2023-24, are dragging the index underwater
What’s Working?
- Staples (+3% YTD)
- Utilities (+1%)
- Everything else? Burned toast
SPX Doesn’t Need You To Be Right. Just Consistent.
Pulse bar tells you when. Credit spreads handle the rest.
MAG7: The Not-So-Magnificent Seven
The tech titans who made the bull market are now breaking it.
| Stock | YTD Performance |
|---|---|
| TSLA | -35% |
| AAPL | -15% |
| NVDA | -15% |
| MSFT | -11% |
| GOOGL | -12% |
| AMZN | -10% |
| META | -2% |
The SPX would’ve posted a small gain if you removed these seven stocks. Let that sink in.
Tesla’s in a spiral. Nvidia got clipped by China export bans. Apple’s innovation engine has stalled. And Meta? Barely hanging on.
Meanwhile, the SPX Income System doesn’t need a bull market to get paid. While the MAG7 flail, we’ve been clocking credit spreads off clean pulse bar setups like it’s just another Tuesday.
Sector Breakdown: From Boom to Bleh
Let’s talk sector carnage. Out of the 11 S&P sectors…
Only Staples and Utilities are positive YTD. That’s not leadership — that’s survival.
| Sector | YTD (Price) |
| Staples | +3% |
| Utilities | +1% |
| Health Care | -2% |
| Financials | -4% |
| Materials | -5% |
| Real Estate | -5% |
| Industrials | -6% |
| Energy | -9% |
| Communication Svcs | -9% |
| Tech | -15% |
| Discretionary | -17% |
Tech and discretionary? Annihilated.
Which ironically means the average boomer portfolio might be outperforming that hot-shot FAANG-heavy millennial strategy right now.
Why? Investors are rotating into safety. But rotation doesn’t mean opportunity is gone. It just means different rules apply. And this is exactly where the SPX Income System shines.
Credit spreads. Pulse bars. Pre-defined risk. While others panic, we run the system.
Expert Insights: Seasonality & SPX Setup Odds
Historically, May through August is weaker.
- ‘Sell in May and go away’ isn’t just a saying – it’s backed by 75 years of data
- SPX gains from May-Oct average ~+2% vs. +6.7% from Nov-Apr
- Staples and Health Care tend to outperform in this period
- Tech usually takes a breather (already did in April… might overshoot to the downside)
This all aligns with what we’re seeing:
- A rotation out of growth into defensives
- SPX stalling near the 5400/5425 zone – and reversing hard
- Pulse bar triggers delivering clean, bearish setups
So while others are watching their accounts melt down… We’re harvesting premium.
Fun Market Fact
The Worst 100 Days? You’re Living in One
Trump’s first 100 days in 2017 saw a calm, low-volatility grind higher (+5%).
In 2025? We’re down over 15% from January’s highs.
According to Dow Jones Market Data, this is one of the worst 100-day stretches for any president since WWII – and the worst post-election reaction since Nixon.
Historically, when the first 100 days are this bad, markets tend to finish the year weak or flat – unless the Fed steps in with rate cuts. (Don’t hold your breath.)
So yeah… this ain’t normal. But for systematic traders, it’s prime hunting season.
Happy trading,
Phil “Captain Chaos” Newton
Professional pulse bar whisperer
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
p.s. There are 3 ways I can help you…
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