What the SPX pinch does next depends entirely on the break.
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Morning traders. Firstly, I am sick as a dog, perhaps even a dead dog warmed up. So today’s analysis will be a little shorter than normal.
Nothing weird or funky happened over the weekend. VIX has returned to normal, almost, with a rather violent mean reversion from last Thursday with the S&P pushing slightly higher. I’m still concerned overall about these moves, and as the first third of the month gets X’ed off the calendar are we still setting up for the markets to meet the grim reaper in September? Or is this my fever dream paranoia kicking in?
Let’s get into what little there is.
Market Snapshot
Nothing weird or funky over the weekend, the VIX has returned to normal and the S&P is pushing slightly higher.
- ES (SPX): 7,790.25 / +0.17% / in a Bollinger pinch, full read below
- YM (Uncle Dow): 54,131 / 0.00% / flat, holding near its highs
- NQ (NazQuack): 29,939.50 / +0.13% / grinding back up its range
- RTY (Uncle Russ): 3,039.80 / -0.01% / holding inside its channel
- VIX: 15.42 / +3.56% / returned to normal, violent mean reversion
- GC (Gold): 4,413.40 / +0.27% / holding up after the breakout
- CL (Crude): 78.35 / +1.65% / no read today
- BTC: 65,242.65 / +0.56% / range compressed, full read below
SPX: Patience In The Pinch
The SPX swings continue to be in a Bollinger band pinch point, price has moved from the range lows and pushing towards the marked range highs, id be more inclined to wait for a breakout in either direction, the PnF chart bottom left is also showing compressed prices.
Should there be a bear break this could be the daily v-entry pattern exhausting the big bull NATH break, for a move lower. The bull argument is that this could turn into a bull flag for the continuation, and despite my views and opinions I can not discount the possibility that price can move in any direction, and the sideways argument is already covered with the range in play.
Patience is my play for the swings.
Patience is my play for the swings.
BTC: Compressed, And The Swings Are Short Lived
BTC, the range compressions and therefore the swings are very short lived. I know Sean has been talking about scalps on the crypto a little more than normal, so that potentially is also highlighting to pick your spots.
The 4 hours for me is in a grind, still, as are most other main coin pairs. Slipping over to something a little more exotic might find you a little more pump and movement.
A grind on the majors. Get exotic for the pump.
Meme of the Day:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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