Everyone Has an Opinion. Mine Just Got the Death Knell (again!).

The funny thing about opinions is that, like belly buttons, everyone has one. Mine’s full of fluff and the occasional exploratory finger.

My view or expectation yesterday was that the inside day* high would get taken out, briefly, then retreat back inside and run for the other side of the inside day. This is more common than not to see. Intraday, we saw the breakout of the inside day and never came back inside.

So the great thing about rule based trading is that while my opinion was there, the rules of the intraday system said get bullish.

So will the indexes hold? Scroll down for the SPX pattern I’m watching from last week, crude breaking its neckline, Bitcoin in limbo and 2 new Double Dippers.

*An inside day: a day that stays in, then does an Irish exit.**

**Irish exit: leaving the party without saying goodbye. Monday’s never came back for its coat.

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Market Snapshot – Or is the recovery about to ‘git goin’?

Prices across the board on the main indexes have pushed right into prior levels.

• S&P 500 futures: 7,590.75 (+0.14%), right into prior support.
• NazQuack: 28,011.50, also right into prior support.
• Uncle Dow: 52,763 (+0.46%), pushing into prior range highs.
• Uncle Russ: 2,859.3 (+0.45%), pushing into prior range highs.
• VIX: 19.69 (-1.20%), the premium has deflated.
• Gold: 4,126.3 (-0.56%), a bounce off the lows, still under the falling line.
• Crude Oil: 84.37 (-2.33%), breaking the range lows. More below.
• Bitcoin: 74,535, in limbo. More below.

So will they hold? Is this going to be a bear market rally? The first of many? Or is the recovery about to ‘git goin’?

The VIX premium has deflated and another fast mean reversion payout should be seen. Cash settled European options are now traded almost 24/5, so there are lots of opportunities no matter your time zone right now.

SPX – We are at point 3, the same as last week’s 1.

Looking at SPX daily in a little more detail again, while my immediate opinion of an inside day fake break and fast turn didn’t come true on the same day, we could well see the same pattern unfold over 1-3 days.

We saw this literally last week (1 on the chart), inside day break and then pushed higher, followed by 2, the Thursday market collapse.

We are at point 3, the same as last week’s 1, so will we see a move lower like last week? I think, should it come to pass, it would be as fast and shocking as last week, but anything is possible in these markets.

That prior support acting as resistance is a good jumping off point, so it will be interesting to see what develops. The 30 min Tag n Turn (not shown) has developed a bear setup.

So we’ll see.

Crude Oil – No range reversal this time.

Crude oil, no range reversal this time, breaking the range lows now, which is the larger double top type pattern neckline we saw on the daily and point and figure charts.

The 60 min range breakout target is at $80.06 and the larger pattern target at $73.18.

Bitcoin – In limbo for me.

The bar is at 73,500. Shots have been ordered to pass the time.

BTC is in limbo for me and waiting for my bull/bear triggers. The bear seems most likely at this point and a break below 73,500 could send us down to the 63,000 level.

Double Dippers – Trade on at next open.

New on today’s Double Dippers, XLB, the basic materials sector, and SCHD, the US dividend ETF, both of which are providing nice mechanical bull shallow dip setups.

The widget has no opinions, no hunches and no byline.

And this is the downside to rules trading as a writer, the little widget popped up to let me know my rules have been met, trade on at next open. LOL.

Less brain, more gain…

Premium Poppers and Wall of Wins – Relying on the data and not my observations.

Yesterday’s Popper produced results with a nice clear and clean bullish breakout. See the SPX 9 Nov slide below for the Premium Popper setup(s). The rules said get bullish, so we got bullish. I took a later than usual trade as I was talking through the Double Dippers updates with my insiders group.

I’m also tinkering with an updated Premium Popper setup(s), which would have provided 2-3 more setups throughout the day, so there were lots of opportunities to profit. Members will see the software updates as they are confirmed and formalised. Of course, I’ve now got to redo the training I’ve just done, lol.

OBITUARY. Phil’s Opinion. 9 Nov, at the open. Survived by the rules. No flowers.

Looking at the SnapView we can see the huge “…bounce…” moves higher, which give my opinion the death knell. But relying on the data and not my observations and expectations of what was happening in real time, the move is undeniable.

To wit, the community pulled out premiums:

• Don E.: “Closed SPX BO1 for 50%” and “Closed SPX LP for 50%”
• James D.: “Took the RUT and SPX BO1 and closed them out at 1.20 🙂”

Boomski.