Where We’re Going We Don’t Need Earnings. Pivot Into AI.
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Well the correction lasted the morning. Eye roll. Right before the markets did a perfect Bonnie Tyler and turned around.
And, of course, S&P and Naz are making another pre-market run for a new high. I’m starting to think, even more so, that this is like 1999. And I don’t mean Prince. Let’s party like it’s… I mean let’s pop a dot-com on everything and watch the stock pop. Pah. Where we’re going we don’t need earnings.
I suppose one of the main differences is that there are often real technologies when people are slapping AI on things. Or doing a Ross and “Pivot” into AI. Despite that it still feels quite bubble-like.
Over on the TnT swings, SPX remains bullish. RUT saw a lovely push from the BB highs to lows. We did see the reaction off the BB low and a MACD-V extreme reading, just no Pulse Bars yet.
RUT daily is suggesting a narrow ranging day, but with S&P and Naz already pushing toward new highs in the pre-market, I’d expect there to be a bullish slant to any way the day unfolds.
GEX 7,400 and 7,450 and 7,500 could well mark off the potential range zones for the day.
There may be a little wobble as the markets hold for the new Fed chair vote.
As always, we will see what we see when we see it.
In the wider world, Kevin Warsh becomes Fed chair today. He has called the 2022 inflation spike the Fed’s worst policy mistake in decades. He inherits a 3.8% CPI. Powell plans to stay on the board pending a renovation probe, leaving two Fed chairs in one building, both Trump nominees, neither inclined to cut. December hike odds climbed to 30%, up from near zero.
1999 Vibes. Correction Lasted A Morning. RUT Reaction Off BB Low. Warsh Sworn In.
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Market Briefing:
Wednesday 13 May.
- Tuesday close: SPX 7,400.96 (-0.16%) / NazQuack 26,088 (-0.71%) / Dow 49,760 (+0.11%) / SOX -5% worst in 7 months
- Wednesday pre-market: ES 7,442.75 (+0.30%) NATHs / NQ 29,406.50 (+0.93%) NATHs / RTY 2,856.5 (+0.27%) / YM 49,725 (-0.28%)
- 30-minute SPX: Bullish Above (Flipped) 7,267.09 / NATHs 7,428.97 / Bearish TnT printed Tuesday morning, PFZ Flipped back to bullish that afternoon
- 30-minute RUT: Bearish Below 2,881.69 / Target 2,833.4 / push BB high to low complete / MACD-V extreme reading at reaction / no Pulse Bars yet
- Qualcomm -13% worst day since 2020 / Intel -9% / Micron -3.6% / AMD -2% / SOX still +60% YTD
- Wendy’s +9% on a single FT sentence / “rescue narrative” bar is one journalist with a phone
- Datadog +28% / CoreWeave -7% on Q2 guide $2.45-2.60bn vs $2.69bn consensus / Vital Farms -20% surprise loss
- Warsh sworn in today / Powell stays on board pending renovation probe / two Fed chairs, one building, both Trump nominees, neither dovish
- 10Y holding most of 40bps added since Iran conflict began / DXY firm / Brent $107.77 / WTI $102.18
- December rate hike odds climbed to 30% from near zero
- GEX: 7,400 dominant anchor / 7,450 secondary spike / 7,500 next major / call wall 7,400 / put wall 7,000 / IV 14.95% / IVP 65%
Market Snapshot
- ES: 7,442.75 / +0.30% / NATHs / pre-market run continuing
- YM: 49,725 / -0.28% / Dow tagging along
- NQ: 29,406.50 / +0.93% / NATHs leading
- RTY: 2,856.5 / +0.27% / below recent NATHs 2,918.4
- GC: 4,697.0 / -0.54% / softer
- CL: 101.59 / -0.45% / Brent ~$107
- VIX: 17.94 / -0.22% / contained
- BTC: 81,201 / +0.89% / channel still holding
Tag ‘n Turn
SPX: Bullish swing intact. Tuesday’s bear print PFZ-flipped back by afternoon. Bullish slant expected.
RUT: Bearish Below 2,881.69 setup pushed from BB high to BB low. Reaction off the low. MACD-V extreme. No Pulse Bars yet.
The correction lasted half a morning. Bonnie Tyler turnaround. SPX and Nazquack already running for fresh NATHs in pre-market.
RUT is the cleaner directional read today. The bear setup pushed cleanly from the BB high to the BB low. The reaction off the low has produced the MACD-V extreme. Pulse Bars not yet present, which is the only thing missing for a long-side entry attempt off the band.
GEX field at 7,400 / 7,450 / 7,500 frames the SPX day. A wobble may come on the Fed chair vote.
SPX Analysis
Bullish Above (Flipped) 7,267.09. NATHs 7,428.97. Bearish TnT printed Tuesday morning, immediately PFZ Flipped back that afternoon. Bullish swing intact.
The Bearish TnT signal that printed in Tuesday morning’s session got PFZ-flipped back to bullish by the afternoon. The swing position remains bullish.
Pre-market is already running ES to 7,442.75 above Tuesday’s NATH. The pattern continues. The bears barely had a session.
Bull thesis outside the range. Bear thesis inside the range. Price outside, bullish.
Current Status: Bullish Above (Flipped) 7,267.09 / PFZ 7,231.3 / Target Pending / NATHs 7,428.97 / pre-market 7,442.75
Gamma Exposure
7,400 dominant anchor. 7,450 secondary spike. 7,500 next major node. Range development between these three levels frames the day.
The GEX field has resolved upward again. 7,400 is the dominant gamma node and the call wall. 7,450 sits as a secondary spike. 7,500 is the next major node above.
The three-level structure frames the potential range zones for the session.
Put wall 7,000. Gamma flip 6,633.68. IV 14.95% / IVP 65% / IV Rank 27.32% / HV 10.74%. Vol contained.
Learn more about GEX – Here
RUT Analysis
Bearish Below 2,881.69. Target 2,833.4. Push from BB high to BB low complete. MACD-V extreme at the reaction off the low. No Pulse Bars yet.
The bear setup from Tuesday played out cleanly. RUT pushed from the BB high down to the BB low. The reaction off the BB low has produced a MACD-V extreme reading.
What is missing for the long-side reaction trade is the Pulse Bars. Without confirmation, the setup is watch-only.
Bull thesis outside the range. Bear thesis inside the range. Price has settled near the BB low.
Current Status: Bearish Below 2,881.69 / PFZ Level 2,888.21 / Target 2,833.4 / NATHs 2,888.61 / MACD-V extreme / Pulse Bars pending
Rounding Off
The Warsh swearing-in. Kevin Warsh becomes Fed chair today. He has called the 2022 inflation spike the Fed’s worst policy mistake in decades. He inherits a 3.8% CPI driven by an oil shock monetary policy cannot fix. December rate hike odds climbed to 30% from near zero. Powell stays on the board pending a renovation probe.
Tuesday’s chip snap. Qualcomm -13%, worst day since 2020. Intel -9%. Micron -3.6%. AMD -2%. The SOX fell roughly 5%, its worst session in seven months. Still up 60% year-to-date, leaving plenty of altitude to remember the war from. Wendy’s +9% on a single FT sentence — the bar for “rescue narrative” is now one journalist with a phone.
The 1999 frame. Phil’s read: this is starting to look like 1999. Real technologies in some cases. AI bolted onto labels in others. Bubble-like regardless. Datadog +28% Tuesday. CoreWeave -7% on softer guidance. Vital Farms -20% on a surprise loss.
Cross-asset. Brent $107.77. WTI $102.18. 10Y holding most of the 40bps added since the Iran conflict began. Bonds refusing to give up the inflation premium on a ceasefire the architect has disowned.
Current Status: Warsh sworn in today / SPX bullish swing intact / RUT reaction off BB low awaiting Pulse Bars / GEX 7,400-7,500 framing / December hike odds 30% / chip cycle remembered the war Tuesday
Expert Insights
“What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.”
— Warren Buffett (paraphrasing an old Wall Street adage)
The 1999 framing Phil flagged is the operative discipline today. Real technology layered with AI labels. Earnings sometimes optional. Stocks pop on rescue-narrative sentences. SOX up 60% YTD with a single -5% session described as the worst in seven months.
The bull market continues. The 7,400 GEX anchor pulled price back to it. The pre-market is running for new highs. The MACD-V on RUT is reaching extreme readings off a BB tag. All structurally bullish, all visibly stretched.
The trade is to ride what is working with reduced position sizing relative to conviction, and to accept that 1999-vintage bull runs ended when they ended, not when the eye-roll arrived.
[Source: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway public commentary |
CME FedWatch implied probability data, public]
Percy and The NutBot Report
(Peanut-Powered Analysis)
Percy has fed the Tuesday chip snap, the Bonnie Tyler turnaround, and the Warsh swearing-in into NutBot-AI. The tablet emitted a Beep-Beep. Two sourced points came back accurate. Percy has described today as “a hawk-induced reconciliation of price reality,” which is not a phrase. Hazel says “reconciliation” without looking up. Percy looks at her. He does not adjust.
Beep-Beep. (repeated by Percy)
1 – Qualcomm’s -13% Tuesday session (worst single-day decline since 2020) combined with Intel -9%, Micron -3.6%, AMD -2%, and SOX -5% (worst in seven months) represents a chip-cycle counter-trend session within an existing +60% YTD SOX trend, occurring on the same day the broader index held flat with the Dow positive.
[Source: SOX semiconductor index historical data, public | Individual issuer trade data, 12 May 2026].
The sector concentration of the decline (chips and AI infrastructure specifically) against a broadly intact tape suggests this is positioning unwind rather than macro-driven repricing. The Datadog +28% / CoreWeave -7% split confirms the same dynamic: the market is now differentiating AI exposure quality rather than uniformly buying it.
2 – Kevin Warsh’s swearing-in as Federal Reserve Chair today, inheriting a 3.8% CPI (hottest since 2023) with December rate-hike odds climbing to 30% from near zero, against a presidential preference for rate cuts and a Powell decision to remain on the Board pending a renovation probe, creates a contradiction structure at the top of the Federal Reserve that has not existed in modern recorded history.
[Source: Federal Reserve public statements, 12-13 May 2026 | CME FedWatch implied probability data, public].
The cross-asset implication is that 10-year Treasury yields holding most of the 40 basis points added since the Iran conflict, despite the equity tape posting fresh records and a stated ceasefire, reflects the bond market pricing the new chair’s known hawk profile rather than the presidential preference. The asymmetric risk into the next FOMC is whether the new chair’s first guidance materially diverges from the rate-cut path the equity tape has half-priced.
Beep. (Percy nods as though he follows. Hazel does not look up.)
This Bot potentially hallucinates. Maybe. OK, Probably! Approved by the pigeon quorum in two seconds. Twelve consecutive. Mac writes “TWELVE CONSECUTIVE / LEGAL PERSONHOOD ACHIEVED” in the notebook. Underlines LEGAL PERSONHOOD.
In Other News…
The correction lasted a morning. Bonnie Tyler turnaround by lunch. By pre-market Wednesday, the indices were running for fresh records.
Tuesday produced one bad session for chips. Qualcomm -13%, worst since 2020. Intel -9%. Micron -3.6%. AMD -2%. SOX -5%, worst in seven months. Still up 60% year-to-date. Plenty of altitude.
Datadog +28%. CoreWeave -7% on soft guidance. Vital Farms -20% on a surprise loss, ending its run as the day’s most stable egg-related asset. Wendy’s +9% on a single FT sentence. The bar for “rescue narrative” is now one journalist with a phone.
The new Fed chair is sworn in today. He has called the 2022 inflation spike the Fed’s worst policy mistake in decades. He inherits a 3.8% CPI driven by an oil shock monetary policy cannot fix. December rate-hike odds at 30%, up from near zero. Powell stays on the Board pending a renovation probe. Two Fed chairs in one building, both Trump nominees, neither inclined to cut. The contradictions are now load-bearing.
Phil’s read: this looks like 1999. Real technology in some cases. AI labels on everything in others. Where we’re going we don’t need earnings.
Hazel’s Take:
SPX 7,400.96 Tuesday -0.16% / NazQuack -0.71% / Dow +0.11%
Qualcomm -13% worst since 2020 / SOX -5% worst in 7 months / still +60% YTD
SPX bullish swing intact / Bearish TnT PFZ-flipped same day
RUT reaction off BB low / MACD-V extreme / no Pulse Bars yet
Warsh sworn in today / December hike odds 30%
Composure day 68
Rumour Has It…
Hazel at the anchor desk. Day 68. Three cups in descending order. The third cup still has coffee. The two smaller cups are empty. “Pivot,” she says without looking up. Wallie hears it across the room. Kash hears it. Percy continues processing.
Wallie at the chalkboard. He writes “QUALCOMM -13%” and underlines once. He writes “SOX -5%” and underlines once. He writes “SOX +60% YTD” beneath. The chalk pauses. He looks at Hazel. He underlines YTD three times. Hazel nods.
He writes “WHERE WE’RE GOING WE DON’T NEED EARNINGS” with no underlines, considered, applied without.
Kash at the streaming desk, standing. Five timers, the “WHAT IS PERCY EVEN COUNTING?” whiteboard updated again with a new line: “Hours since Hazel said ‘Pivot.'” Counter reading: 0:00:00. Below that: “Times we’ve party-like-it’s-1999’d this year.” Counter reading: 7.
A new entry on Kash’s screen: a Bonnie Tyler GIF labelled “INTRADAY TURNAROUND, TOTAL ECLIPSE OF THE BEAR SETUP.” He shows it to the camera.
Stream title: “1999 vibes / SPX premarket NATH / RUT BB tag / Warsh sworn in / Bonnie Tyler turnaround.”
Mac on location. Notebook open. New sub-page titled “TWELVE CONSECUTIVE / LEGAL PERSONHOOD ACHIEVED” with LEGAL PERSONHOOD underlined. Below: “TWO FED CHAIRS / ONE BUILDING / NEITHER DOVISH.” Margin note: “Load-bearing contradiction.” Underlines LOAD-BEARING. Croydon luggage tag still on the desk corner.
Percy in the centre of the room. NutBot mode. The tablet is displaying a chart of “Hawk Reconcileation Index.” Hazel says “reconciliation” again, slightly louder. Percy looks up briefly. He does not adjust. He continues. The pigeon quorum has just authorised a new motion: “Recognition of foundational governance” via Appendix N.
Kash (looking up from his screen): “Percy, what’s in Appendix N?” Percy: “Procedural ratification of self-ratifying authority.” Mac (writing): “Self-ratifying authority. Not a thing.” Hazel (without looking up): “It is when they say it is.” Wallie (writes “SELF-RATIFYING AUTHORITY” on board, underlines IT IS):
The newsroom moves on.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Meme of the Day:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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