Trump in Beijing. Huang in tow. Xi waits.

Stock Market Edge

Records hold. Crude burns. Inflation knocks. Tech ignores oil, Treasuries, and the Fed dot plot. Tech wins anyway.

1. Premarket snapshot: Futures point to a steady open after Wednesday’s twin records. S&P 500 +0.12%, Nasdaq 100 +0.34%, Dow +115 points or +0.23%. The cash S&P 500 cleared its prior high above 7,400. The cash Nasdaq did the same. The market, having considered the geopolitics, the PPI print, and the dot plot, decided to buy chips instead.
2. Sector rotation: Information Technology carried Wednesday on AI conviction, with Nvidia and Micron leading. Communication Services followed thanks to Cisco’s after-hours beat and a job-cut press release that the market read as bullish. Energy, Staples, and Defensives lagged, possibly out of embarrassment.
3. Earnings or guidance: Cisco beat at $1.06 versus $1.04, revenue $15.84B versus $15.56B, and announced fewer than 4,000 job cuts beginning today. Doximity guidance fell short, shares dropped 18%. Applied Materials reports after the bell. Wall Street is hoping for confirmation that the AI capex story remains, in technical terms, unstoppable.
4. Cross-asset nuance: The 10-year closed Wednesday at 4.46%, within sight of the year’s high. The dollar held. Brent grinded at $106 with Hormuz still closed. CME Fed-cut odds for 2026 now stand at 3%. Hike odds: 36%. The market noticed. It did not, however, react.

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Crypto Market Edge

Coins consolidate. Washington marches. Flows arrive. Bitcoin sits at $80K while Senators reach for a rulebook nobody asked them to write.

1. Price snapshot: Bitcoin holds around $80,000, resistance $82,000, support $78,100. Ethereum trades $2,272 to $2,404, still throwing itself at the $2,400 ceiling and bouncing off it. The CoinDesk 20 ticked higher overnight. Nothing about the price action suggests anyone is in a hurry to decide.
2. Flows and positioning: April produced $1.97 billion in net US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, the highest monthly total of 2026. Ethereum ETFs added $356 million, ending a five-month outflow streak. CoinShares logged four consecutive weeks of positive flows. The institutional bid, as advertised, did not require enthusiasm.
3. Leadership and rotation: Toncoin posted roughly 115% in the week to May 12 on Telegram-related catalysts, briefly making the rest of crypto look meditative. Solana and XRP added marginal gains. The TON move stood apart, which is generally not a phrase one wants attached to one’s coin. Open interest sits at record levels.
4. Catalysts and roadmap: The Senate Banking Committee marks up the CLARITY Act today, the first real legislative checkpoint of 2026 for institutional access. The SEC has approved a one million contract position limit on BlackRock’s IBIT options. Taiwan lawmakers proposed a Bitcoin strategic reserve, in case anyone was missing a dollar-dependency angle.

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TL;DR – The Bottom Line

• Futures hold green premarket. Wednesday delivered twin records on Nvidia, Micron, Cisco. The tape, looking at inflation and Hormuz, decided to look the other way.
• Brent at $106. Hormuz still closed. OPEC cut its 2026 demand growth forecast to 1.2 million barrels a day. The IEA warned of greater volatility, diplomatically.
• Bitcoin sits near $80,000 on ETF flows that haven’t stopped. The Senate Banking Committee marks up the CLARITY Act today, the first real legislative test of 2026.
• April PPI ran hot at 1.4% Wednesday. The 10-year yields 4.46%. CME odds put a 2026 Fed cut at 3% and hikes at 36%. Powell heard.
• Trump meets Xi in Beijing today with Huang riding along. AMAT reports after close. Two events decide whether Friday opens on records or on apologies.