BTC Bear. Range Highs To Lows.
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Rabbits… is that supposed to be something you say at the start of every month, or just May, or March, or something? I seem to remember growing up that it was a once-per-year thing – but when I asked an expert (ahem, Google), it seems some areas of the world have the superstition to say it on the first of every month and not just March (or May – my brain is a little hazy on this, I’ve had a lot of whiskies since waking up – erp, I mean growing up, lol).
Anyway. The bulls are at it like rabbits again, bonking away to another new all-time high on 3 of the 4 stock indexes. The VIX, this time, is heading down the rabbit hole and effectively confirming the complacency, and we nudge towards the year’s volatility lows. All the fear is gone.
The “sell in May and go away” phenomenon has again been bucked, with May being a stellar month and one for the record books in this “crash upwards for no reason” economy.
Anyway, we start a new month, and as usual the first week is full of red-flag news items to kick-start the monthly news cycle off.
SPX swings keep swinging higher. The aforementioned new all-time high might take prices 20 or so points higher on the open, assuming the overnight move higher holds. %R is continuing to hold an extreme high, and this can be mapped on price with a rising channel. With the continued flip-and-flops we are seeing here, I think it is wise to wait for the breakdown before considering a bear move. MACD-v sadly has been no help on this extreme and straight-line move higher, unlike it has been on RUT.
RUT swings, as usual, are easy to read. The MACD-v extreme doing its job last week to keep me on the sidelines. Today we are out of the danger zone, and the expected move higher is not currently following through either on cash or on the overnight futures. We do have a clear range well established, and as mentioned last week I’ll be looking for a breakout of this before committing to a new swing trade.
BTC has been a darling too – a clear bear signal on the 4hr charts from the daily range highs all the way down towards the daily range lows. Multiple continuation setups along the way on the 4hr charts. Simples.
Three indexes at the records. One signature still pending. A whole news week ahead asking what colour the flags are.
Get The Complete Premium Popper System – Automation Included
Your entry ticket to consistent SPX income. Inside: the exact setup, rules, and checklists I trade daily – for less than the cost of lunch. Easily actionable.
Get The Premium Popper System – Click Here
Market Briefing:
Monday 1 June – the first of the month, when British folklore requires the saying of “rabbits” before any other word to summon a month of good fortune. The bulls have, between them, said it on every available timeframe. Three of four indexes opened June at fresh all-time highs without comment.
- Friday closed records: SPX 7,580.06 +0.22% / Nasdaq 30,502.50 / Dow 51,198 / Nasdaq Composite +8% on May / S&P +5% on May / Dow +3% on May
- The catalyst, cited by no-one in particular: a 60-day US-Iran ceasefire memorandum that Trump has not yet signed, with a Situation Room meeting pending and “no hurry” stated
- Brent fell 19% on May (worst month since the pandemic) / Brent now near $92.56 / cheaper energy eased the inflation worry
- Premarket snap: ES +0.31% / NQ +0.37% / RTY +0.12% / VIX 15.85 holding tight (year low 13.38 nearby)
- Red-flag news week: ISM Manufacturing PMI Mon 10:00 ET (53.3 vs 52.7) / ADP NFP Wed 08:15 + ISM Services Wed 10:00 / Average Hourly Earnings, NFP and Unemployment Fri 08:30
- BTC at $72,872, spot ETFs shed $2.3bn in May / Warsh’s first FOMC June 16-17 with PCE at 3.8% as the backdrop
Market Snapshot
- ES: 7,614.00 / +23.25 (+0.31%) / NATHs 7,620.50 / approaching the print
- YM: 51,198 / +145 (+0.28%) / NATHs 51,209 / Uncle Dow at the doorstep again
- NQ: 30,502.50 / +113.00 (+0.37%) / NATHs 30,536.00 / Nazquack on the rabbit run
- RTY: 2,923.00 / +3.40 (+0.12%) / NATHs 2,952.00 / Uncle Russ alone outside the records
- GC: 4,528.60 / -41.30 (-0.90%) / haven bid trimmed
- CL: 90.91 / +3.15 (+3.59%) / oil firmer
- VIX: 15.85 / +0.54 (+3.53%) / year low 13.38 in view
- BTC: 72,872.67 / -702.50 (-0.95%) / range lows continue
Tag ‘n Turn
SPX swings keep swinging higher with %R at extreme high and rising channel intact – wait for the breakdown before considering a bear. RUT out of the MACD-v danger zone but the expected move higher not following through – wait for the range breakout. BTC clear bear signal from range highs to range lows with multiple 4hr continuation setups.
Three different waits on three different charts. One wait for the breakdown the rising channel hasn’t given. One wait for the range break the cash market hasn’t decided. One trade running cleanly to target while the talking heads continue describing crypto as a hedge.
SPX Analysis
SPX swings keep swinging higher. New all-time high might take prices 20 or so points higher on the open, assuming the overnight move higher holds. %R continuing to hold an extreme high – this can be mapped on price with a rising channel. With the continued flip-and-flops, wait for the breakdown before considering a bear move. MACD-v has been no help on this extreme straight-line move higher, unlike on RUT. Bearish Below 7,569.66, PFZ 7,599.38, Target 7,505.9.
SPX swings keep swinging higher. The aforementioned new all-time high might take prices 20 or so points higher on the open, assuming the overnight move higher holds.
%R is continuing to hold an extreme high, and this can be mapped on price with a rising channel.
With the continued flip-and-flops we are seeing here, I think it is wise to wait for the breakdown before considering a bear move.
MACD-v sadly has been no help on this extreme and straight-line move higher, unlike it has been on RUT.
Current Status: Bearish Below 7,569.66 / PFZ 7,599.38 / Target 7,505.9
Gamma Exposure
Gamma flip 6,838.38, well below cash. Put wall 7,400, call wall 7,600. Big call gamma node at 7,600 with a secondary node at 7,650. IV 13.00%, IV Percentile 28%.
The flip sits well below cash, deep in positive gamma. The put wall is at 7,400 and the call wall at 7,600, with the largest call gamma nodes on the board at 7,600 and 7,650.
IV at 13.00% against historic 10.06%, with IV Rank 14.97% and IV Percentile 28%.
Current Status: Flip 6,838.38 / Put Wall 7,400 / Call Wall 7,600 / IV 13.00% / HV 10.06% / IVR 14.97% / IVP 28%
RUT Analysis
RUT swings as usual are easy to read. MACD-v extreme doing its job last week to keep me on the sidelines. Today we are out of the danger zone, and the expected move higher is not currently following through on cash or overnight futures. Clear range well established – looking for the breakout before committing to a new swing trade. Bullish Above 2,914.93, PFZ 2,898.83, Target 2,948.09.
RUT swings as usual are easy to read – the MACD-v extreme doing its job last week to keep me on the sidelines.
Today we are out of the danger zone, and the expected move higher is not currently following through either on cash or on the overnight futures.
We do have a clear range well established, and as mentioned last week I’ll be looking for a breakout of this before committing to a new swing trade.
Current Status: Bullish Above 2,914.93 / PFZ 2,898.83 / Target 2,948.09 / clear range / waiting for breakout
BTC Analysis
BTC has been a darling too. Clear bear signal on the 4hr from the daily range highs all the way down towards the daily range lows. Multiple continuation setups along the way on the 4hr charts. Simples.
BTC has been a darling too – a clear bear signal on the 4hr charts from the daily range highs all the way down towards the daily range lows.
Multiple continuation setups along the way on the 4hr charts.
Simples.
The Bear Entry annotation sits at 76,385 with the Stop Loss at 77,834.55. Price now at 72,843.
Current Status: Bear signal active / daily range highs to range lows / multiple 4hr continuation setups / Bear Entry 76,385 / Stop 77,834.55
Rounding Off
Records Built On A Deal Trump Hasn’t Decided To Sign. Wall Street closed May at fresh records on the strength of a 60-day US-Iran ceasefire memorandum that the President has not yet approved. He has confirmed he will meet in the Situation Room to make a final determination, and has added that he is in no hurry. The deal that lifted stocks is not yet a deal. The Nasdaq Composite gained more than 8% on the month regardless. The S&P added around 5%, the Dow nearly 3%. The “sell in May and go away” phenomenon has been bucked. The “wait for an actual signature” phenomenon continues to be bucked alongside it.
A New Month And A Red-Flag Week. The first week of June carries ISM Manufacturing today, ADP and ISM Services on Wednesday, and Non-Farm Payrolls with Average Hourly Earnings on Friday morning. April PCE printed at 3.8%, the hottest since May 2023, and Warsh’s first FOMC sits two weeks away. The VIX has eased to 15.85 and the year low at 13.38 is in view. The market is sure. The page is blank. The trade, as always, is to wait for the system to print rather than to insist on a thesis – trade small, keep consistent to the process, and let the cycle do what cycles do.
Expert Insights
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”
– Sir John Templeton, public
Friday closed at fresh records. The VIX is heading for the year low at 13.38. Three indexes are at all-time highs. May was, depending on the index, +3% to +8%. The talking heads are describing the proceedings as entirely calm. The memorandum that the rally is built on has not yet been signed by the President said to favour it.
Templeton’s line does not require a top-call. It requires reading the temperature honestly. The mechanic Phil is applying – waiting for the breakdown rather than insisting on a bear, waiting for a range break rather than guessing a direction, trading the BTC bear signal because it printed cleanly – is the same discipline in chart form. Read what the system prints. Trade small. The cycle takes care of the rest.
[Source: Sir John Templeton, widely attributed across investment literature including the Templeton Foundation, public]
Fun Fact:
The “rabbits” superstition Phil referenced is a real and well-documented piece of British folklore. The earliest recorded mention dates to a 1909 article in Notes and Queries, a long-running British folklore journal, which describes the practice of saying “rabbits” or “white rabbits” as the first word spoken on the morning of the first day of each month to bring good luck for the month ahead.
By the 1920s the custom had spread across Britain and into the United States, where it picked up its most famous practitioner: President Franklin D. Roosevelt is widely reported to have practised the ritual throughout his presidency.
Variants exist – some say “rabbit” once, some say it three times, some hold out for “white rabbits.” The form is regional. The intent is identical: good fortune for the month, granted only if the word is spoken before any other.
Phil’s hazy memory is correct that it is sometimes attached to specific months – in some traditions only the first of May, in others the first of March – but the most widely-documented version is, indeed, monthly.
[Source: Notes and Queries (1909), Oxford Dictionary of Superstitions, public folklore record]
Meme of the Day:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
p.s. There are 3 ways I can help you…
- Option 1: The SPX Income System Book (Just $12)
A complete guide to the system.
Written to be clear, concise, and immediately actionable.
>> Get the Book Here
- Option 2: Full Course + Software Access – 50% off for Regular Readers – Save $998.50
Includes the video walkthroughs, tools for TradeStation & TradingView, and everything I use daily. Plus 7 additional strategies
>> Get DIY Training & Software
- Option 3: Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – 50% off for Regular Readers – Save $3,000
>> Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – trade live, twice a week, with me and the crew. PLUS Monthly on-demand 1-2-1’s
No fluff. Just profits, pulse bars, and patterns that actually work.
