I Packed Away the Bear Kit. Then a Bear Walked Past the Window, Juggling.

The bear was packed away yesterday, and the bull cycle is in effect.

Well, I think I’d gone done and jinxed that Dow move premarket yesterday, as it all but ricocheted off the descending VWAP.

The funny thing was the Dow did a bull premarket run, which we commented on, then a fuck you bear move right at the open, retreating 100%.

Harry Hindsight is now keeping office hours and they start at the closing bell, and in 25 years he has never once been wrong.

This is definitely one of those Harry Hindsight moments, as I’d already mentally checked out of the bear.

FOR SALE: 1 bear summoning kit. Chalk, half used. 3 candles, guttered. 1 wooden talking board, planchette does not take requests. One careful owner, who has given up. No time wasters, no bears.

Police are appealing for witnesses. Shortly after the open on Tuesday, a bear was seen near the descending VWAP on the Dow. It is described as brief. Members of the public should not approach it without a stop loss.

As an overall directional viewpoint, and literally as I’d packed up the last of my bear summoning kit (suitable for all levels of market wizard), didn’t a bear walk past the window while no one was watching, doing a little juggling act before buggering off before being seen.

Scroll down for where that leaves SPX, Crude Oil and Bitcoin, and how the room got paid while the bear was busy juggling.

Market Snapshot

Yesterday’s cash closes: SPX 7,805.45 (-0.02%), RUT 2,783.37 (-0.40%). Overnight futures:

• S&P 500 (ES): 7,864.75 (+0.12%), under the NATHs line at 7,897.50.
• Uncle Dow (YM): 52,025 (+0.20%), back under the descending VWAP it ricocheted off.
• NazQuack (NQ): 30,791, under the NATHs line at 31,616.50.
• Uncle Russ (RTY): 2,807.3 (+0.23%), a long way under the NATHs at 3,079.9.
• Gold: 4,168.0 (-0.39%).
• VIX: 15.20 (-0.52%), under the 16 line and above the year low at 13.38.

SPX – Pretty much did what we thought it would do.

SPX swings pretty much did what we thought it would do, and continues to meander sideways.

The day itself was not that impressive intraday.

Crude Oil – Switching sides again.

Crude has completed a free transfer back to the bull side, its 4th move of the season, and says it has always been a bull fan.

Crude oil is switching sides again, and did push down a little bit, but not enough to lock any profits in, and not quite the middle of the range at the $91 level before turning around.

Interestingly, we did suspect a push lower then a move higher as one scenario, and that’s what happened. It’s just a bugger when the profit on the bear side wasn’t locked in as we’d have liked.

The bull is back in force and looking for a move towards $96.50.

Bitcoin – Doing little other than grinding.

Bitcoin’s assembly instructions run to 14 pages. Step 1 is “bust 85k”. The Allen key is not included.

BTC is doing little other than grinding harder than a stripped screw in a DIY disaster.

Still looking for 85k to be busted, and then we can hopefully start assessing the breakout.

Premium Poppers – A fast locked in profit with a transformer trade.

Despite that, the intraday Premium Poppers on SPX and RUT worked out well enough, a fast locked in profit with a transformer trade on RUT before I was needed to do other things.

The RUT transformer trade starts off as a credit spread and locks in profit with adding the debit spread to make a risk free butterfly.

RUT (see the Popper chart) was a solid trending morning with its usual fast explosive movement.

We are seeing a lot of moves this year that go one way in the morning and after lunch go the other way, retreating 50-100% of the earlier moves.

And of course the team is banking the Premium Poppers wins for the intraday trading:

• James D.: “Bear wins at 45-50% on RUT and SPX PP!”
• Richard H.: “A bit late in reporting, but yesterday’s SPX bear PP at SS7805 eventually transformed for $0.5 and landed in the tent at close.”
• Don E.: “Closed RUT BO1 for 45%”, then “Sold RUT LP 2775/2780 Call; transformed into butterfly and locked in $.80”
• Steve R.: “doncha just love Q4?”, with a P/L Day of 3,358.00 on his screenshot.
• James D., this morning: “Loss on SPX LP & RUT Pulse – if I’d waited and taken the RUT LP could have been a win”

Well done, or should I say sell done, team. Badum tsch. Keep it up.

PS, I’m working on a new 0 to 1 day trading variation of this, which should also help with those intraday turnings we are seeing a lot of this year. More soon.

Meme of the Day: