The Break In You Will Never Find Written In A TA Book

Market Snapshot

Prices falling off, and the cluster of fucks may finally be ending.

The other indexes have now joined Uncle Dow. No apology has been issued, and the Dow is not expected to accept one.

The snap overview, we can see prices are indeed falling off but we really do need to skip through the cluster of fucks we’ve been meandering in for the last few days.

The exception has been Uncle Dow which has been leading the bear charge all along. VIX clues from yesterday held well too, with elevation in VIX before the SnP moves really started.

• ES 7,723.00, -0.55%. Falling away from the NATHs.
• YM 53,408, -0.19%. The one that started it.
• NQ 29,741.25. Rolling over with the rest of them.
• RTY 3,051.6, -0.42%. Joined the party.
• VIX 16.01, +5.47%. The clue, and it held.
• GC 4,443.3, -0.67%. Easing back.
• CL 84.51, -0.52%. Quiet again.
• BTC/USD 64,153.44. Ticking along.

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The Break In

The opposite of a breakout, and no book will tell you about it.

There is no chapter on the break in, because the people who write the books have never had to explain why support stopped working halfway through a Tuesday.

One of the several things we looked at in the group calls was the premarket trade based off the 60 minute premarket rejection of the prior highs level from the 5th Aug. Similar to a breakout, prices pushed back in. The trade called around 8am EST, time stamp on my screenshot is UK hours, as I’m 5 hours ahead of EST.

Anyways, just the opposite to a breakout is a break in. We often talk about this setup and you will never see it written about in those TA books. Another way to think about it is a flip of support back to resistance.

And if you look on the other stock indexes you will see the prior swing in NazQuack’s case and the prior NATHs on the other 3 get reclaimed.

Support flips to resistance, and the books stay quiet about it.

Sentiment

63% broken, back below the August and July peaks, 45% next?

To top things off, the sentiment, in the form of the number of stocks pushing past the 63% down below 60%, happened yesterday. Interestingly, back below the Aug 5th peak and the July 6th peak.

Just looking at history, could we expect the numbers of stocks above the 20 period moving average push to around the 45% level? This will give me at least the start of my bear move.

But will it lead to a catalysis move, and that most elusive but almost annual occurrence of 10% in 10 to 15 days?

Hopefully the fun has just started and I don’t have a safe word!!!

63% gone, 60% gone, and 45% is the one I’m watching.

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Premium Poppers  – Premarket rejection, two BOs at one level, targets hit before the film.

Yesterday’s Premium Poppers once again pulled some premiums.

My first trade was taken from the premarket rally and the futures rejecting, the break in above. Got to love that new almost 24 hour trading on the cash options now, just select global trading and boop.

The next trades were 1st and 3rd BOs at the same level, so same strikes can be seen on the profit and loss curve.

After that, and again I’m in the UK so 5 hours ahead, off for some sushi and a movie. Spider Man, while excellent, was not worth waiting through the final credits for the piss poor tease of what’s coming. C minus Marvel, must try harder.

Anyway, bingly bongs, targets reached as we head into the movie, early afternoon EST time.

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And of course the community smashed it again, well done team AntiVestor.

• Chris T. “SPX popper took its sweet time. Finally hit target. The interesting one with this one is the spot price at target was only $1 lower than my entry price. So time decay worked for me rather than a price move.”
• Richard H. “Same for me, I had to walk away, it was so frustrating. BO1 ATM SS7700 for $2.50cr and converted to a butterfly for a $0.6c win. Please come back SPX after all that wait!”
• James D. “Bear RUT TnT closed for a tiny profit, Bear SPX TnT closed for a profit and a Bear LP XSP at 50%…. I think tomorrow will be better, is this the start of the sell-off? Today the price action is still sketchy…”

Targets reached, and I was already ordering.

Fun Fact

Home Depot reports before the open today.

Home Depot once faked its own inventory. The shelves were full. The boxes were not.

When the first two Home Depot stores opened in Atlanta on 22 June 1979, the founders could not afford enough stock, so merchandiser Pat Farrah persuaded suppliers to hand over empty boxes carrying their labels, and the team stacked them high to make the aisles look full. The company went public in September 1981, raising $4.093m.