SPX Tag ‘n Turn Trending Out Of Consolidation, 7,600 In Sight
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
The market ripped higher overnight yesterday and continued to push higher slightly in the main session. Today’s pre/overnight moves are a little teeny by comparison to Monday’s start of the week. That said, Tuesday is pushing higher, and I would imagine that momentum will continue.
A real SPX target to talk about, an EA SKIP on RUT, a Premium Popper split decision across the two charts, and three instruments all giving us clear lines in the sand.
Right then, let’s get into the charts.
Market Snapshot
The overnight tape, in one shot:
- ES (SPX): 7,507.75 / +0.82% / bullish push, Tag ‘n Turn read below
- YM (Uncle Dow): 52,671 / +0.27% / green with the indexes
- NQ (NazQuack): 30,091.00 / +0.32% / tagging green with the rest
- RTY (Uncle Russ): 3,033.9 / +0.26% / sitting at its last NATH, EA read below
- VIX: 17.57 / -0.51% / softer, no resistance to the push
- GC (Gold): 4,032.7 / +0.05% / sideways with the others, full read below
- CL (Crude): 70.88 / +0.65% / grinding a range, VWAP kiss next
- BTC: 59,283.91 / -1.46% / bears hibernating, bulls snoozing, full read below
SPX: Trending Out Of Consolidation, 7,600 In Sight
Keep swinging.
Looking at the daily chart, this could change the potential range low we looked at a week or two ago. Pattern evolution. The setup is morphing into something with more upside reach than the box we had been working in.
So in true form, we should see price swing from the range lows to the range highs. That is the working hypothesis from here.
The currently unofficial usage of %R is showing a bullish extreme. Which is trending behaviour, out of the small consolidation area from the tail end of last week. The Tag ‘n Turn EA’s PLUS (+3) call from Friday is sitting nicely on top of this, with size still at 1.5x and the Add-In Fired.
7,600 seems a reasonable target zone. It is just whether we see price move in a straight line or not towards that area that I will need to keep in mind.
Trending out of the box. 7,600 is the zone.
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Uncle Russ: EA Calls SKIP, BB Pinch Is The Alternative
RUT is sitting at its last NATH.
Also grinding out a range, with the ceiling potentially putting in, and a normal setup forming from the range lows.
The new all-singing all-dancing system has recognised this as a low-confidence setup, and suggested a skip. Quality SKIP at minus 2. Position 0x. Add-In Armed (in window) but not triggered.
Which is what I normally do in such instances. Wait for the breakout.
Alternatively, dropping down to the 10-min in the Bollinger Band pinch will give me 1-DTE setups quite nicely. That is the other angle on the same chart, and the one I will be watching while the cash sits on its hands.
Skip the cash. 10-min BB pinch is the alternative.
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Crude Oil: Surprise Surprise, Also Grinding A Range
Surprise, surprise. Crude oil is also grinding out a range.
My read: I would expect price to attempt to kiss the VWAP before we see a push lower back to the newly marked range lows. A small bounce first to test the line, then the leg lower.
That keeps the bear thesis on track and gives a cleaner entry on the way down rather than chasing here.
VWAP kiss first. Range lows next.
Gold: Similar Story To Crude And BTC
Gold is looking similar to crude as well as BTC.
Case in point: I got those charts mixed up on yesterday’s video. Three sideways grinds will do that to you.
The good news: it is now giving me clear lines in the sand again. That is exactly what I want to see for a reassessment of new entry points. The early bull swing and the early bull derisked notes from last week are sitting on the chart as reference, and the price action since has built a cleaner picture.
For the moment, the job is to reassess and rebuild the entries.
Lines in the sand. Reassessing entries.
Bitcoin: Bears Hibernating, Spelunking To 50K Likely
No real update here.
The bears are hibernating. But the bulls have not woken up either. That is the standoff, and it’s been the standoff for a few sessions now.
Likely just a quick snooze before spelunking to 50K and lower.
Bears hibernating. 50K next.
Premium Popper: Split Decision On The Day
Two poppers on the dance card from Monday. Two very different grades.
SPX gave a low scoring on the new and improved software. Quality HALF (-2). Position 0.5x. So the call was simple: skip it, or take reduced size and keep it on a tight leash.
What played out was a fast pop lower, pushing right into a gap close and the 2-day VWAP, before retreating back inside the range. Worked, but not a confidence-builder. The opening range was also in the red zone, which doesn’t make the potential for any breakout a great setup. The ATR Ratio at 43.2% added a penalty, ORB60 was opposing, and the stack rate sat at ~35%. The system flagged it correctly.
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RUT on the other hand was right in the green zone for a clean confident setup. Quality NORMAL (+2). Position 1x. ATR Ratio at 23.8% adding the +1. Stack rate at ~72%. Win rate at ~89% on the Lazy Popper layer.
Pop and drop. Pain-free trade and setup. ORB30 CONFIRMED, ORB60 WATCHING, Stack Status CONFIRMED 30. The system did its job and the trade did the rest.
The Student Wins chat in Slack is full of the results for the day’s Popper traders. That is what the green zone looks like in practice.
Skip the SPX bear. Take the RUT pop and drop.
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Meme of the Day:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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