The one number that mattered didn’t move: the 2-year, above the policy rate, pricing a hike into the debut of the chair hired to cut. The rest was noise.
Tuesday split in half. The Dow set a record at 51,999.67, the Nasdaq fell 1.15%, and duration, not fear, decided who got sold and who got bought.
The 10-year slid to a three-week low 4.44% on cheaper oil while the front end ignored the whole peace story. The curve flattened on principle.
Bitcoin gave back its peace rally to near $65,586 while ETFs bled roughly $4.2 billion over three weeks. Price up, money out, decision pending.
Oil near $75 prices a peace that signs Friday, a day markets are closed. The dots print at 2pm, and the 2-year finally gets its grade.

Monday handed us a clean, happy story: a peace deal, cheaper oil, a record Dow. So why did the 2-year spend the day pricing a rate hike into Warsh’s first meeting? Let’s work out what the front end knows that the party didn’t.

Stocks booked the Iran peace deal Monday, S&P up 1.49%, Nasdaq up 2.38%, Dow at a record. Oil paid the bill, down 5% to near $80.
The one number that mattered stayed unimpressed: the 2-year above 4%, above the policy rate, hike odds near 80%. The front end isn’t buying the relief.
Warsh gavels his first FOMC this week. A hold is 97% priced, so the dot plot and his debut tone, not the rate, are Wednesday’s actual event.
Fox sank nearly 18% to buy Roku for $22 billion. SpaceX held above $2 trillion on day two. Semiconductors clawed back part of Friday’s brutal rout.
Bitcoin reclaimed $65,500 even as roughly $3.4 billion left bitcoin ETFs over 11 days. Price went up, the money went out, and one of them is lying.

Wall Street ended a war and priced it like a tax cut. NQ futures +1.9%, oil off 5% to $80, the VIX crushed to 17.68. Peace, payable next-day.
The number that mattered was the small one. The 2-year moved five basis points to 4.035%, taking the relief and keeping its powder for Warsh on Wednesday.
Bitcoin borrowed a 2.3% bounce off the stock market to about $65,800. The record $3.4B weekly ETF outflow declined to celebrate alongside it.
Defence sold the war it spent three months buying, Lockheed off 1.5% and AeroVironment down 7%, while Asia chips threw a 12% SoftBank-sized party.
The signing lands Friday in Switzerland, when US markets are shut for Juneteenth. The only thing that trades this week is the Fed, and the Fed has read the CPI.

Wall Street rallied 1.75% on a peace deal nobody has signed and inflation it chose not to notice, two separate acts of faith before most of us had breakfast.
Futures sit near flat into the open as SpaceX prepares to become the largest IPO ever, the same week chip stocks logged their worst single day since April 2025.
Bitcoin bounced above $63,700 on borrowed optimism, while four weeks of record ETF outflows and Strategy’s broken never-sell vow quietly disagree with the mood.
May inflation hit 4%, the hottest in three years, which leaves Warsh hired to cut rates and walking into a meeting on Tuesday where he plainly can’t.
A $1.78 trillion rocket debuts today and the peace remains unsigned, so Tuesday’s Fed gets to decide which of Thursday’s happy stories were actually true.

Futures left early as US strikes on Iran hit day two and Tehran answered at Gulf bases, because pricing peace works right up until the peace files for a second war.
May CPI hit a three-year high of 4.2%, burying the 2026 rate cut and handing Warsh a hike debate at the first meeting he was hired to spend cutting.
Oracle asked for $20 billion to build AI and the market docked it 10% for the audacity, having decided capex on faith is last season’s look.
Bitcoin round-tripped to 2024 at $62,200 as a record 13-day ETF exit and a quietly broken never-sell vow drained whatever bull case was left.
Oil rallied on the bombs and dipped on the rumour they had stopped; today asks whether dip-buyers have the stomach for a third surprise.