Wall Street bombed Iran, remembered by lunchtime.

Stock Market Edge

The room bought defensives on Tuesday and forgot the war by dawn ES -0.25% waiting on a document Warsh didn’t write. Chips at a fourth down session on a record profit.

Premarket snapshot:
ES 7,532.75 -0.25%, NQ 29,284 -0.46%, YM 52,995 -0.38%, RTY 2,982.8 -0.50% at 03:30 ET. VIX 16.57 +2.66%, still sub-17. Tuesday cash: SPX -0.45% to 7,503.85, NDX -1.8%, Dow 52,925.15 off an intraday all-time high. Defensives caught what the chips gave back: J&J +3%, PG +2.5%.

Sector rotation:
Info Tech and semis pressured a fourth session; SMH -3%, Micron -4.7%, Western Digital -6.3%, Sandisk -4.6%. Applied Materials nearly -10% intraday, Lam Research -8%. Financials watch 10yr 4.50%; energy weighs Brent’s round-trip against Tuesday’s license revocation.

Earnings or guidance:
Samsung Q2 $58.4B, 19x year over year, priced as a miss anyway; KOSPI -4.9%. PepsiCo reports Thursday premarket, Delta Friday. Vertex-Crinetics $10B endocrine deal closes the Tuesday deal wire. Mag7 guides open Jul 22 with Tesla. That is when the chipflation bill lands or doesn’t.

Cross-asset nuance:
10yr 4.50%, a two-week high on the oil bid; 2yr 4.14%; 30yr 5.01%. DXY 100.87 flat eight sessions vs sterling. Gold $4,127 +0.26%. WTI $72.48, Brent unwound from $76. September hike odds 50 to 58%. The minutes read the one voice Warsh recused: himself.

📊 There’s a level on SPX I’m watching closely this morning. My full analysis briefing has it – plus what happens if we hold it, and what happens if we don’t. [Read it here →]

Crypto Market Edge

Michael Saylor tweeted “hodl” the same day his 8-K said he sold BTC $62,632. The company designed to never sell filed the largest sale in its history to pay a preferred coupon.

Price snapshot:
BTC $62,632 -1.09% at 03:30 ET, off a Sunday $63,590 high and a late-June $58,000 low. ETH $1,747 up ~10% weekly on Buterin’s “Executor” proposal. XRP $1.14; SOL above $80. BTC dominance ~63%. Realised vol 35.71 down from 43.74.

Flows and positioning:
BTC ETF flows flipped +$221.7M Jul 2, largest daily haul in two months, then +$46.6M Jul 3, ending a 10-day outflow streak. June still -$4.06B, worst month on record. Fear and Greed 24. Open interest $21.6B, down 18.7% in 30 days. Two positive days versus seven negative weeks.

Leadership and rotation:
ETH outperformed on the Buterin draft and BlackRock’s staked-ETH $100M day-one; SOL steady; BTC lagging altcoin momentum despite dominance holding. IBIT led the Jul 2 flip. Chart says relief; the flow tape says provisional.

Catalysts and roadmap:
Strategy 8-K Jul 6 disclosed 3,588 BTC sold Jun 29 to Jul 5 for $216M, largest ever, July tranche at $60,773 vs $75,476 cost basis. Sale count now two. Proceeds fund STRF, STRE, STRK, STRD, and STRC preferreds. STRC coupon locked Jul 15, preferred trades $89 off par. CLARITY Act Jul 17.

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TL;DR – The Bottom Line

• The one number that mattered was WTI $72.48; six hours after US strikes on Iran the war premium had round-tripped and the tape moved 28 cents.
• ES -0.25%, NQ -0.46%, VIX 16.57 +2.66%; Fed minutes 2pm, first Warsh-era document, nine dots for a hike and one recused chair.
• 10-year 4.50%, a two-week high on Tuesday’s oil bid, not on this morning’s kinetic reply; 2-year 4.14%, unmoved through cycle seven and a soft payroll print.
• Strategy sold 3,588 BTC at $60,773 versus $75,476 cost to fund preferred coupons, its largest sale ever, filed the same day Saylor tweeted “hodl”.
• Chips at a fourth down session on Samsung’s 19-fold “miss” and a DeepSeek chip report; Mag7 guides open Jul 22, and the customer margin gets a vote then.

📌 Fun Fact

Hormuz is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, and moves more oil than any waterway on Earth. Roughly a fifth of the world’s crude and its liquefied natural gas crosses that channel every day, more than 20 million barrels of oil. Malacca, the next largest chokepoint by volume, moves about 16.