Monday’s quiet split tape resolved overnight into a broad risk-off, every US index red, gold and bitcoin falling with stocks, only crude left standing. We look at why everything sold off at once, and what Thursday’s PCE settles.
...The bond market declared inflation beaten on Thursday, breakevens at a 2026 low. Then Iran re-closed Hormuz, crude clawed back toward $80, and Thursday’s PCE is still coming.
...Nine of 18 Fed officials now pencil a 2026 hike, the committee that promised a cut in March. Stocks bought the dip back in a day. The only market open Friday did not.
...Wednesday the Fed turned a 2026 cut into a hike and knocked every asset down together. This morning only stocks bounced back, while gold, oil and bitcoin stayed on the floor. Why the split?
...The one number that mattered didn’t move: the 2-year, above the policy rate, pricing a hike into the debut of the chair hired to cut. The rest was noise.
Tuesday split in half. The Dow set a record at 51,999.67, the Nasdaq fell 1.15%, and duration, not fear, decided who got sold and who got bought.
The 10-year slid to a three-week low 4.44% on cheaper oil while the front end ignored the whole peace story. The curve flattened on principle.
Bitcoin gave back its peace rally to near $65,586 while ETFs bled roughly $4.2 billion over three weeks. Price up, money out, decision pending.
Oil near $75 prices a peace that signs Friday, a day markets are closed. The dots print at 2pm, and the 2-year finally gets its grade.
Monday handed us a clean, happy story: a peace deal, cheaper oil, a record Dow. So why did the 2-year spend the day pricing a rate hike into Warsh’s first meeting? Let’s work out what the front end knows that the party didn’t.
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