Futures soften after Wednesday’s 1.08% S&P rip on US-Iran de-escalation hopes. Russell ripped 2.3%, yields dropped 10bps, and Hormuz, somewhat awkwardly, stayed shut.
Nvidia beat with $81.62B revenue and $1.87 EPS. Hyperscalers committed $725B in 2026 capex, up 77%. The AI thesis remains, structurally, immune to the news cycle.
Walmart prints before the open at $174.95B and $0.66 EPS consensus. The retailer warned last week tariffs would force price hikes. Today the math arrives in plain English.
BTC holds $77,841 while US spot ETFs shed $1B last week, largest outflow since February. The mechanical floor thinned. Resistance $82,850 still politely declining visitors.
Hormuz closed week 13, Brent $106, Warsh six days into the chair. The gap between Wednesday’s hope and Thursday’s invoice is today’s only real story.
Futures sit where Tuesday left them. The 30-year at 5.19%, a yield that used to trigger Hollywood recession montages and now triggers a shrug. The bond rout is steady.
Nvidia reports fiscal Q1 after the close. Consensus $79 billion revenue, 78% growth, 90% implied beat. Tonight Wall Street sacrifices its chicken to one chip vendor.
Powell’s final FOMC minutes drop at 14:00 ET. Powell left May 15. Warsh chaired five days. We are reading the diary of a man who has left the building.
Bitcoin held $77,000 overnight after its worst week since February. Saylor stands $1,300 above the iceberg. Diamond hands, very quietly and ceremoniously, opened.
Trump’s Iran strike sits postponed, optional, ready for any moment. Brent holds $110.73. Hormuz stays closed. Schrödinger’s war: simultaneously on, off, and irrelevant to the chart.
Futures slip a second day. S&P -0.23%, Nasdaq -0.46% premarket. Memory chips, having priced AI capacity as infinite, briefly remembered that fabs are physical objects.
Home Depot prints 9am ET. Consensus $3.41 EPS on $41.6B revenue. First proper US consumer read of the week, against shares already down 21% past year.
Trump postponed Tuesday’s Iran strike. Brent fell 1.84% to $110.26. Hormuz, somewhat awkwardly, remains shut. Aramco CEO sees 2027 normalisation if blocked past mid-June.
Bitcoin trades sub-$77K, having returned every gain of May. Crypto ETFs bled $1.07B last week. Strategy bought $2B more. Goldman exited XRP and Solana entirely.
Wednesday brings Powell’s final FOMC minutes plus Nvidia after close. The market gets to find out whether two losing days were a glitch or a leading indicator.
Equities: S&P closed Friday -1.24% at 7,408.50 after PPI hit 6%. Monday futures down another 0.68%. VIX jumped 6.78%. The tape caught up.
SPX cue: Premarket bid sits near 7,380. Hold and Nvidia Wednesday becomes the bounce trigger. Fail it and the 50-day comes into view fast.
Crypto: Bitcoin under $77K, testing the $75K-$78K battleground. ETH at $2,272, ten days of ETF inflows and yet no price confirmation through resistance.
Macro: Warsh inherits a 6% PPI, a 30-year above 5.12%, and a Hormuz closure on day one. FOMC minutes Wednesday read the Powell-era dissent map for him.
Forward look: Nvidia after close Wednesday is now the week’s hero or the week’s accelerant. Walmart Tuesday sets the consumer tone. Brent at $111 will not stop reminding.
Wall Street threw a record-closing party. Futures sobered up by morning. S&P -0.53%, Nasdaq -0.76%, Dow -0.33%. The records held for one session.
Powell exits. Warsh inherits the hottest CPI in three years. April print at 3.8% y/y. Energy 17.9%. Gasoline 28.4%. The dovish nominee, boxed in by data.
Hormuz stays shut. OPEC at a 20-year low. Silver fell 6.65% anyway. The supply crisis is two months old. The market has stopped finding it interesting.
Nvidia sold H200 chips to China during a state visit and an active war. Stock +4.4%, +15% on the month. Sanctions are flexible when AI is involved.
Bitcoin held $80,900 whilst equities wavered. ETH stuck under $2,400. ETF inflows ran a fourth straight positive week. The Clarity Act passed committee on a noisy news day.
Futures hold green premarket. Wednesday delivered twin records on Nvidia, Micron, Cisco. The tape, looking at inflation and Hormuz, decided to look the other way.
Brent at $106. Hormuz still closed. OPEC cut its 2026 demand growth forecast to 1.2 million barrels a day. The IEA warned of greater volatility, diplomatically.
Bitcoin sits near $80,000 on ETF flows that haven’t stopped. The Senate Banking Committee marks up the CLARITY Act today, the first real legislative test of 2026.
April PPI ran hot at 1.4% Wednesday. The 10-year yields 4.46%. CME odds put a 2026 Fed cut at 3% and hikes at 36%. Powell heard.
Trump meets Xi in Beijing today with Huang riding along. AMAT reports after close. Two events decide whether Friday opens on records or on apologies.