Powell delivers a 100 percent priced hold Wednesday. Twelve voting members, two days, one statement, all to confirm what the curve filled in by Friday. The eulogy is the trade.
Five Mag 7 land Wednesday night. The names that dragged MAGS to minus 11 percent year to date now tell the rest of the year what AI capex actually buys.
SPX 7,173.91, record made by thirteen. Of 500 names, 188 climbed last week, against 406 the first week of April. The S&P 500 is increasingly an S&P 13.
Brent $108. Iran offered Hormuz back. Trump declined. Goldman raised oil forecasts Sunday morning. Investment banks now charging for the war they couldn’t price the first time.
BTC $77,500. Eight days, $2.1 billion in, BlackRock 75 percent. Bitcoin moved from $68K to $77K, then stopped exactly where $80,000 told it to stop.

TL;DR – The Bottom Line
Wall Street pre-paid for a peace that didn’t arrive Friday. Records held. Iran’s foreign minister spent the weekend in Oman and Russia. Oil moved on what the headlines wouldn’t.
FOMC Wednesday 2 p.m., hold at 3.50 to 3.75% expected despite PCE forecast 3.5% versus 2.8% prior. Powell at 2:30, same evening four mega-caps report.
Q1 GDP advance Thursday morning after Q4 2025 was revised to a sluggish 0.5%. PCE same release window. Apple Thursday close. Exxon and Chevron Friday.
Bitcoin near $78,500 after fourth straight week of $824 million ETF inflows. BlackRock IBIT took $733 million. One fund did roughly 89% of the bid.
Magnificent Seven down 11% year-to-date whilst the S&P prints fresh records. The 493 carries the load. Wednesday’s mega-cap capex commentary tests whether the rotation holds.

TL;DR – The Bottom Line

Records Friday: S&P 7,165, Nasdaq 24,836, Intel up 23.65% on a blockbuster Q1. Hope priced in. Saturday took it back out before futures could even open.
Trump cancelled the Pakistan trip mid-flight on Truth Social. Iran refused direct US contact. Pezeshkian: no talks until the blockade lifts entirely. Stalemate just hardened.
US Navy redirected its 37th ship Saturday with the Sevan tanker intercepted. Hormuz risk premium back on. Crude at $94.40 will not stay there into Sunday futures open.
FOMC lands Wednesday 2pm with Powell at 2:30. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon all report after the close same day. Apple Thursday alongside Q1 GDP and core PCE.
Bitcoin held $78K through the diplomatic collapse, up 5.8% weekly. Ethereum lagged at $2,330. Fear and Greed stuck at 39 despite the bid. Disbelief rally signature.