Brent fell 1.84% on a press release. Hormuz stayed shut.

Stock Market Edge

Tech bleeds while bonds shout, and the market chooses ‘noise’ Memory chips, finally, are subject to time. So, it turns out, are equities.

1. Premarket snapshot: Futures lower into the open. ES -0.23%. NQ-100 -0.46%. YM -58 points. Monday: S&P 7,403.05 (-0.07%), Nasdaq 26,090.73 (-0.51%), Dow 49,686.12 (+0.32%). VIX 17.82 (-3.31%). Russell 2000 -0.65% at 2,775.
2. Sector rotation: Tech finished worst, having decided twice that long-end yields might be a problem. The Tech sector closed -1.1%, intraday -2.3%. Seagate -7%, Micron -6% on the rare admission that semiconductor fabs are physical. Energy, staples, financials lifted the Dow. Dow diverged from Nasdaq two sessions running.
3. Earnings or guidance: Home Depot reports before open: $3.41 EPS on $41.6B revenue, shares down 21% past year. Toll Brothers and Keysight also print. Tesla -2.9% Monday after SpaceX IPO chatter reminded shareholders Musk has other interests. Nvidia, the print that matters, lands Wednesday after close.
4. Cross-asset nuance: 10Y 4.599%. 30Y 5.135%, highest since June 2007. Brent $110.26 after Trump’s postponement. Gold $4,570.55. Dollar 98.99. Crypto sub-$77K. Bonds led equities for ten weeks. Equities, after two sessions of catch-up, have conceded.

---

📊 There’s a level on SPX I’m watching closely this morning. My full analysis briefing has it – plus what happens if we hold it, and what happens if we don’t. [Read it here →]

---

Crypto Market Edge

Bitcoin returns May’s gains and asks no questions Six weeks of crypto fund inflows, neatly, end.

1. Price snapshot: BTC at $76,952 (07:15 ET), down 5.10% on the week. ETH $2,115. SOL $84.83. XRP $1.38. BNB $642.84. ZEC up 8.74%, HYPE up 3.71%. The Nasdaq’s bond-led slide arrived at crypto on cue. Bitcoin, the celebrated inflation hedge, did inflation-hedge things until it didn’t.
2. Flows & positioning: Crypto products bled $1.07B last week (CoinShares), ending six straight weeks of inflows. Bitcoin ETFs took the bulk. Altcoin funds held firmer. April’s $1.97B BTC ETF inflow narrative now has a footnote. Six weeks of structural demand, undone by one week of geopolitics and rates.
3. Leadership & rotation: Strategy added 24,869 BTC for $2B last week, total holdings 843,738 BTC, over 4% of supply. The $80K level was briefly defended. Goldman’s Q1 13F: out of XRP and Solana ETFs entirely, Ethereum exposure cut 70%, $700M retained in Bitcoin ETFs. The bank’s altcoin opinion, in disclosure form.
4. Catalysts & roadmap: Wednesday delivers Powell’s final FOMC minutes and Nvidia’s print. Citi flagged quantum-computing risk to Bitcoin’s cryptography, a long-tail story now on a tier-one bank desk. Bitcoin Depot, North America’s largest BTC ATM operator, filed for bankruptcy. The loss, denominated in dollars.

---

TL;DR – The Bottom Line

• Futures slip a second day. S&P -0.23%, Nasdaq -0.46% premarket. Memory chips, having priced AI capacity as infinite, briefly remembered that fabs are physical objects.
• Home Depot prints 9am ET. Consensus $3.41 EPS on $41.6B revenue. First proper US consumer read of the week, against shares already down 21% past year.
• Trump postponed Tuesday’s Iran strike. Brent fell 1.84% to $110.26. Hormuz, somewhat awkwardly, remains shut. Aramco CEO sees 2027 normalisation if blocked past mid-June.
• Bitcoin trades sub-$77K, having returned every gain of May. Crypto ETFs bled $1.07B last week. Strategy bought $2B more. Goldman exited XRP and Solana entirely.
• Wednesday brings Powell’s final FOMC minutes plus Nvidia after close. The market gets to find out whether two losing days were a glitch or a leading indicator.

---

📌 Fun Fact

The 2007 echo nobody is mentioning The 30-year yield’s last visit to 5.13% came in a very different macro era.

The current 30-year Treasury yield is the highest since June 2007. That summer, the S&P 500 was within weeks of its all-time high before the global financial crisis began to unwind. The yield is the same. The context is, gently, not.