Compression continues across the indexes, but the Dow may be stepping forward to lead the bear charge with a clear 123 pattern. SPX ran the range highs again and ground lower all day, and a push below 7700 hands over the breakout attempt. Inside: the RUT coil, the ETH/BTC flip, and how the profit got locked without a butterfly.

The 3 day ATR is around 40 points and the Bollinger Bands are pinched at their tightest contraction in 120 bars. Price is wound tight across every stock index, SPX is dinging off the upper edge of the range, and RUT is ping ponging until something gives. Inside: the swings, the crypto read, and why sideways still hits target.

Nothing weird or funky happened over the weekend. The VIX has returned to normal, almost violently, and the S&P pushed slightly higher. I’m still concerned overall, and as the first third of the month gets X’ed off the calendar, are we still setting up to meet the grim reaper in September? Or is that my fever dream paranoia kicking in? A shorter one today, because I am sick as a dog.

The markets go up and the markets go down. It is when they do it to extremes with nothing fundamentally changing that you get price extremes, and then a course correction post news. Buy the rumour, sell the news. So is this recent rally hot wind and thin air, a Fugazi? We find out in a few hours, and no doubt you already have.

The VIX pushed higher then spiked higher, despite the overnight and morning moves up. Gold is breaking out like it means it. Then the turn came. Is this the top? A blow off top? I remain a nervous bull, I am staying sidelined on the swings, and I am taking the day trades instead. Plus crude’s sell the rally and a Popper day that started with a loss.

The BOFF BOOM move might reach Mars before Elon does. But the VIX is staying elevated and pumping a little higher on the same days SPX is printing new highs, and that is not how it is supposed to go. Bull trap, blow off top thingy, or just a stubborn tape? Plus a simpler transformer that landed both profit tents.