Islamabad talks collapsed after 21 hours – Iran rejected nuclear commitment, uranium surrender, and Hormuz handover – Trump ordered a Navy blockade of all ships entering or leaving Hormuz from 10am ET – ceasefire dead
WTI +8% to $104.24, Brent $102.29, futures -0.55% – seven consecutive winning sessions unwound overnight on thin Asian liquidity – VIX trendline maybe a little too eager to write off last week
Straight line moves have left the indexes overextended – BB pinching again on both 30-minute charts – pop lower similar to 2 April could still develop – waiting for a clear break in either direction
TnT still technically bullish on both instruments – not holding over the weekend was the right call – confirmed by the Tag n Turn wins on Friday
Goldman Q1 before the bell today – JPMorgan tomorrow – Dimon’s commentary on the oil shock credit picture is the week’s most important macro signal

March CPI printed 2.8% headline, core 3.1% – sticky, stubborn – June cut odds collapsed from 55% to 35% in under an hour – Fed stays frozen at 3.50-3.75%
Hormuz is effectively still closed – only two tankers crossed since the ceasefire – 230 stranded in the Gulf – Pakistan hosts formal US-Iran talks in Islamabad today
VIX reclaimed the rising trendline overnight – voided for now – common infrequent short term pattern – markets keeping the bull alive despite the macro noise
Bear swings from yesterday got flipped – cost around 15-20% loss on the flip – back bullish with a Friday expiry swing – should be paying out nicely today
Premium Poppers: 1 win 1 loss but new progressive scoring turned it net positive – bear at 1.5r, reversal bull at 2r – the system is doing its job

Iran’s parliament flagged three ceasefire clause breaches overnight – IRGC confirmed Hormuz tanker traffic halted again after Israel struck Lebanon – the deal is looking shaky already
Futures -0.22% after yesterday’s best session since April 2025 – S&P +2.51%, Dow +2.85%, Nasdaq +2.80%, WTI -16% – the euphoria is fading fast
Price stalled right at the anchored bearish VWAP from the year high on both instruments – that is an interesting and very deliberate-looking place to stop
New bearish TnT on SPX and RUT – warning grade – MACD-v at bullish extreme so a snap back is possible like 2 April – 2-DTE Friday expiry trades taken on tight leash
No premium popper trade yesterday – new scoring system flagged low confidence – chose to leave it – right call given the subsequent sideways grind

Eight PM ET – Pakistan brokered a two-week ceasefire – Hormuz conditionally reopening – carpet bombing threat was another idle TACO – markets loved it instantly
S&P futures +2.5%, Nasdaq +3.3%, Dow +1,000 points, VIX -20% to 20.63 – war premium unwinding – oil -16% to WTI $94
The bullish bias from last week has come to fruition – VIX through 22 – may well have seen the market bottom – short term is bullish
SPX broke out of the tight range yesterday – should be popping 150 points or so higher assuming the overnight holds – RUT flat awaiting fresh setup
Operation Battery Recharge complete – back at the desk – deep OTM SPX butterflies looking spectacular at the open – woot woot

Trump’s deadline is tonight at 8pm ET – reopen Hormuz or face strikes – Iran said permanent end or nothing – deadline five, same pattern as four previous
Monday was flat as a pancake – bullish engulfing on the futures daily but the cash session was an exceptionally narrow range – action mostly premarket
Very little has changed from Monday’s view – range behaving like a range – expect a bull move on the breakout – 6,600 now looking like support, 6,690 overhead resistance
Full data gauntlet this week – FOMC minutes Wednesday, PCE Thursday, March CPI Friday – first CPI to capture Iran’s energy surge – JPM projects headline jumps to 3.4%
Day four of Operation Battery Recharge – zoo spotting today – giant otters had twin pups – this is a priority

Trump’s April 6 deadline expired – Iran’s response was full compensation first then maybe – Trump’s counter is Tuesday 8pm ET with threats on power plants and bridges – Brent at $109
NFP dropped +178K on Good Friday into closed markets – first reaction today – strong jobs, cooling wages, Fed stays frozen – Core PCE still 3%
Overnight futures opened 20 points down, now 40 up, still grinding sideways – ranges within ranges within ranges – eye roll, tut
BB pinch on both SPX and RUT says price is resting – 84% continuation signal from 30-year data study completed last week – wait for the setup
UK bank holiday today – extending the long weekend into Tuesday – the market can wait