SPX closed 7,041.28 Thursday — new ATH confirmed — Nasdaq logged its 12th consecutive up session, longest winning streak since 2009 — Dow still below its NATH at 50,611, the hill remains
The 30-minute chart is showing a small consolidation at the highs — BB exceptionally tight — MACD-v at bullish extreme still points to continuation over reversal — bear TnT expected to be short-lived
GEX: 7,050 is the dominant level for today and the week — little gamma support below 7,000 — base case is a grind and consolidate into the Friday close
Both Premium Poppers hit their stop losses Thursday — classic setups, both failed — sloppy setups at NATHs are worth noting — defined loss, filed, move on — ceasefire expires Tuesday

SPX closed 7,022.96 – three points from the ATH at 7,026.24 – NATHs on ES and NQ this session – Russell is queuing up – Dow has further to travel
GEX 7,000 has flipped from the dominant resistance ceiling to the dominant positive gamma support node – nearly 9 billion sitting there – next ceiling is 7,050 then 7,100
VIX at 18.00 and declining – April 21 is five days away – the market has treated this as background noise and lit a cigarette
Yesterday’s Premium Poppers: two trades, 1st and 3rd BO, $9 and $7 index moves, 64.3% and 60.0% ROC – standard Wednesday, minimal stress

Crashing upwards — the vertical moves and runaway gaps on the daily SPX and RUT are making the chart nervous — nearly at the all-time high, 45 days down from the peak, ten days away from peeking at it
CPI 3.3% — gasoline +12% — Iran oil shock doing exactly what Goldman warned — PCE forecast to peak 3.6% April — Fed frozen at zero cuts — stagflation not a soft landing
MACD-v at bullish extreme is a continuation signal not a reversal according to 21 years of 30-minute data research — interesting and important distinction
GEX ceiling smashed to 7,000 — both walls converged there — peekaboo to a new all-time high is possible if price keeps travelling
Yesterday two poppers at 1.5r — 1st BO 67.7% ROC, 3rd BO 65.1% ROC — moderate scoring day — both green — as always waiting for the opening bell to pop some more

JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and BlackRock all report before the open today – Dimon’s language on oil shock credit costs is the session’s most watched signal
Goldman set the Q1 template Monday – profit +19%, record equities trading, shares still -2% – Solomon warned on Q2-Q3 inflation headwinds if the war drags
The expected pop lower happened — briefly, in the premarket futures — price then firmly broke up and out, which is the continuation the research was pointing toward
GEX showing massive exposure at 6,900 — that level will draw price like a magnet — flip point at 6,667, both walls at 7,000
Yesterday: one premium popper, one lazy day trade — data tools cobbled together, two lines drawn manually, the horror — the poppers popped regardless

Islamabad talks collapsed after 21 hours – Iran rejected nuclear commitment, uranium surrender, and Hormuz handover – Trump ordered a Navy blockade of all ships entering or leaving Hormuz from 10am ET – ceasefire dead
WTI +8% to $104.24, Brent $102.29, futures -0.55% – seven consecutive winning sessions unwound overnight on thin Asian liquidity – VIX trendline maybe a little too eager to write off last week
Straight line moves have left the indexes overextended – BB pinching again on both 30-minute charts – pop lower similar to 2 April could still develop – waiting for a clear break in either direction
TnT still technically bullish on both instruments – not holding over the weekend was the right call – confirmed by the Tag n Turn wins on Friday
Goldman Q1 before the bell today – JPMorgan tomorrow – Dimon’s commentary on the oil shock credit picture is the week’s most important macro signal

March CPI printed 2.8% headline, core 3.1% – sticky, stubborn – June cut odds collapsed from 55% to 35% in under an hour – Fed stays frozen at 3.50-3.75%
Hormuz is effectively still closed – only two tankers crossed since the ceasefire – 230 stranded in the Gulf – Pakistan hosts formal US-Iran talks in Islamabad today
VIX reclaimed the rising trendline overnight – voided for now – common infrequent short term pattern – markets keeping the bull alive despite the macro noise
Bear swings from yesterday got flipped – cost around 15-20% loss on the flip – back bullish with a Friday expiry swing – should be paying out nicely today
Premium Poppers: 1 win 1 loss but new progressive scoring turned it net positive – bear at 1.5r, reversal bull at 2r – the system is doing its job