VIX won’t retreat below 16, the Dow and the Russell won’t join the bull party, and with no big news this week it’s a coin toss. Here’s the S&P’s over under line for the bull bear moves, crude’s breakout target, and a nail-biting butterfly that paid by the final bell.

The Black Monday call never showed, the S&P went a big boof higher overnight, and VIXen is flirting again. Here’s why I suspect the bear moves aren’t quite over, and the line VIX has to cross for them to get serious.

Bull shakeout, bear shakeout, false breaks morning, noon and close. The last time price behaved like this was the 2 months before 2008. Here’s how the data keeps me sane, plus the swing reads on SPX, RUT and crude.

The AI trade got a swift kick, Uncle Russ slipped into correction territory, and Don Bear collected on the S&P and NazQuack. My opinion said bull, the data said bear, and the data got paid. Plus crude heading for its range high target, Bitcoin pushing off the channel low, and the Premium Poppers popping on SPX and RUT.

The bear is packed away and the bull cycle is in effect, so naturally the Dow ran bull premarket, then gave a fuck you bear move right at the open, retreating 100%. Here’s where that leaves SPX, Crude Oil and Bitcoin, plus the Premium Poppers the team banked.

The bear séance is over. Midterm October has historically been the best month of the year for the Dow and S&P 500, Uncle Dow is already leading the charge, and breadth sits at the lower extremes that marked this year’s turns. Plus the SPX, Crude Oil and Bitcoin reads.