Just like that, the bear scare is off the table – sideways movement, tumbleweed, and fine – let’s be bullish
This is 2007/08 all over again – reality being ignored while the market grinds – until one day it isn’t
Triple Witching today – volume surges, swings get violent, every move gets amplified – sloppy and fun
SPX and RUT both bullish again on TnT with ADD at extreme lows and MACDv at extremes – the setup for a push higher is there
FOMC held, dot plot raised inflation to 2.7%, one cut pencilled, seven members see zero cuts – markets threw the teddy out the pram
South Pars struck overnight – world’s largest natural gas reserve – Brent spiked to $109, up 80% since February 28
Both SPX and RUT tagged bullish briefly on Wednesday then flipped back bearish in under an hour – the PFZ flip was the entry signal
1 and done on both instruments – not aggressively hunting entries on FOMC day was the right call – the setup is the setup
FOMC today – hold 95%+ priced – dot plot drops simultaneously at 2pm – Powell 2:30pm – June cut odds collapsed from 56% to 23% – every word matters
Price attempting to push higher off those lows – VIX back inside its channel – fear calming – still inside the larger range though
TnT bear signals on both SPX and RUT could flip with a push above the PFZ levels – overnight futures showing rallies but cash flagging a bear setup – direction confirmed at the open
PPI drops at 8:30am ET before all of this – any upside hardens the stagflation case and complicates Powell immediately
Monday’s broad recovery across all 11 sectors is already gone – Iran struck a UAE gas field overnight and Brent reloaded back above $100
SPX and RUT both cleaner on 30-period BBs – declining VWAP holding as ceiling on both – RUT fired a fresh bear setup and skipped the bull entirely
The late session spike yesterday was a fake tariff pause rumour – White House called it “fake news” – markets gave back everything and then some
FOMC today and Wednesday – hold is 95% priced – dot plot and Powell’s every word on Wednesday are the actual trade
Overnight futures up slightly – bulls and bears can battle this one out – anyone’s game at the open
GEX all negative with key levels at 6,700 and 6,600 – gap up to 6,650 and trade down to 6,600 fits the current read
Nvidia GTC today, Jensen Huang keynotes at 2pm ET – markets need a tech catalyst and today delivers one
FOMC Wednesday is the real pivot – dot plot revision matters more than the hold itself
Friday the 13th delivered early – Brent above $100, 2026 lows hit Thursday, bears back in full control of both SPX and RUT
VIX held the range highs all week – that was the signal that the mid-week recovery wasn’t going to stick
PCE drops at 08:30 ET today – headline 2.7% expected, core near 3%, Fed meets March 17-18, Goldman now says September for the first cut
BTC breaking out of its range on the hourly – 6MMPs pattern #5 in play, targets marked, grinding sideways overall but the setup is there