$80K cleared. Funding says short. One of them is lying.
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Records hold whilst Hormuz still bleeds The tape priced peace. Iran kept shooting. AMD walked the room.
Wall Street decided Tuesday that peace is priced in before peace exists. The S&P closed at 7,259.22, a fresh record. ES traded +0.25% to 7,305.25 by 06:30 ET. VIX collapsed 4.98% to 17.38. Iran spent Monday firing drones at the UAE’s Fujairah fuelling hub. The tape, having considered the facts, ignored them.
Defence Secretary Hegseth said the ceasefire holds. Oil obliged. WTI fell 3.9% to $102.27. Brent dropped 4% to $109.87. Kalshi gives 56% odds the strait normalises by August. Markets, naturally, picked the more bullish version.
AMD reported. Q1 EPS $1.37 versus $1.25 consensus. Revenue $10.25B, up 38%. Data centre $5.8B, up 57%. Q2 guide $11.2B at 56% margin. Stock jumped 15% in extended trade. The shares were already up 66% year-to-date entering the print, which under normal circumstances would qualify as priced in. These are not normal circumstances.
Bitcoin cleared $80,000 on May 1’s $629M ETF inflow. Funding rates print -5% on a 30-day average, which would suggest bears, except institutions are running carry trades. The signal is structural, not directional.
Today brings Disney, Uber, Arm pre-market. Friday brings April payrolls. Consensus 49,000 jobs. Twelve months ago that number meant recession. Today it means the soft landing. Same number. Different theology.
Get The Complete Premium Popper System – Automation Included
Your entry ticket to consistent SPX income. Inside: the exact setup, rules, and checklists I trade daily – for less than the cost of lunch. Easily actionable.
Get The Premium Popper System – Click Here
Stock Market Edge
AMD’s beat carries the AI tape into Disney morning Up 66% before the print. Up 15% more after. The bar moved with it.
- Premarket snapshot: ES +0.25% to 7,305.25 by 06:30 ET, off Tuesday’s 7,259.22 cash record. NQ +0.52% to 28,282 on the AMD halo. YM +0.24%, RTY +0.19%. VIX -4.98% to 17.38, signalling the volatility crowd has accepted the truce trade as gospel for now.
- Sector rotation: Tech leads on AMD, with semis and AI-adjacent names extending Tuesday’s strength. Energy gives back as WTI sits at $102.27, dragging integrated oil and refiners. Defence and shipping watch the Hormuz tape, where insurance premiums remain stubbornly elevated despite the ceasefire holding. Communication Services awaits Disney’s 08:30 ET webcast.
- Earnings or guidance: AMD posted Q1 EPS $1.37 versus $1.25 consensus, revenue $10.25B versus $9.89B, with data centre revenue at $5.8B, up 57% year-on-year. Q2 guide $11.2B at 56% gross margin. Stock +15% in extended hours, on top of the 66% it had already added year-to-date. Disney, Uber, Arm Holdings, Novo Nordisk, AppLovin, CVS, and Marriott also report this morning.
- Cross-asset nuance: Brent settled $109.87, WTI $102.27, both off 4% on Hegseth. Gold $4,633.60, +1.42%, holding the safe-haven bid despite the equity rally. Treasuries quiet ahead of Friday’s NFP at consensus 49,000.
📊 There’s a level on SPX I’m watching closely this morning. My full analysis briefing has it – plus what happens if we hold it, and what happens if we don’t. [Read it here →]
Crypto Market Edge
Bitcoin breaks $80K whilst funding screams short ETF longs. Futures shorts. One trade. Wall Street calls this innovation.
- Price snapshot: BTC +1.25% to $81,353 by 06:30 ET, having cleared the 200-day EMA at $82,228 zone overnight. ETH at $2,372 holds the $2,361 moving-average resistance cluster but goes nowhere fast. Total crypto market cap $2.64T. BTC dominance 58.2%. The altcoin-season index sits at 22 of 100, indicating not much.
- Flows & positioning: April spot Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $2.44B, the strongest month since October. Cumulative since launch reaches $58.72B, still $2.5B shy of October’s $61.19B peak. May 1 alone delivered $629M. ETH ETFs added $101M the same day. Fear and Greed at 40, signalling the residual nerves of people who watched November.
- Leadership & rotation: BlackRock’s IBIT now holds ~812,000 BTC, roughly 62% of total spot ETF market share, which is either consolidation or institutional capture depending on the day. ETH on a nine-day inflow streak before May 1, with whale wallets adding 140K ETH inside 96 hours. The price chart, however, declined to participate.
- Catalysts & roadmap: SEC approved a 1-million-contract position limit for IBIT options on May 1, removing a constraint on large delta-hedged positioning. Taiwan lawmaker proposed a Bitcoin strategic reserve. ETH Glamsterdam upgrade pending. Funding rates at -5% on the 30-day average reflect institutional carry trades, not directional shorts.
TL;DR – The Bottom Line
- S&P closed Tuesday at 7,259.22, a fresh record, whilst Iran was still hitting UAE infrastructure on Monday. The tape decided peace was good enough. VIX agreed.
- AMD beat by 9.6% on EPS and guided Q2 to $11.2B at 56% margin. Stock added 15% on top of the 66% year-to-date it already had.
- Oil shed 4% Tuesday on Hegseth’s ceasefire confirmation. WTI $102.27, Brent $109.87. Kalshi still says 56% odds Hormuz normalises by August. Both can be true.
- Bitcoin cleared $80,000 on May 1’s $629M ETF inflow. Funding rate -5% on 30-day average, which is the carry trade, not a signal. Look beneath.
- Disney, Uber, Arm Holdings report pre-market today, alongside Novo Nordisk and CVS. NFP Friday, consensus 49,000 jobs, the new soft-landing baseline. Twelve months ago it was the recession alarm.
📌 Fun Fact
The first chip ever called a “data centre processor” was Intel’s 4004, in 1971. It ran at 740 kHz and could fit on a fingertip. Today’s AMD Instinct MI350 accelerator pulls more power per second than that 4004 used in its entire production lifetime, and Wall Street still wants more of them.
Meme of the Day:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
p.s. There are 3 ways I can help you…
- Option 1: The SPX Income System Book (Just $12)
A complete guide to the system.
Written to be clear, concise, and immediately actionable.
>> Get the Book Here
- Option 2: Full Course + Software Access – 50% off for Regular Readers – Save $998.50
Includes the video walkthroughs, tools for TradeStation & TradingView, and everything I use daily. Plus 7 additional strategies
>> Get DIY Training & Software
- Option 3: Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – 50% off for Regular Readers – Save $3,000
>> Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – trade live, twice a week, with me and the crew. PLUS Monthly on-demand 1-2-1’s
No fluff. Just profits, pulse bars, and patterns that actually work.
