4,409 Stocks Fell, 8 of 11 Sectors Rose, and the S&P Called It 0.06%

8 of 11 Sectors Rose and the Index Still Went Down The heaviest one fell 1.22% and took the whole average with it

Columbus Day: equities open, bond market shut. NYSE volume was 1,035,418,770 shares, the lowest of the 18 sessions we hold. The Dow rose 195.60 points, the Nasdaq-100 fell 0.707347%, and they finished 1.086014 percentage points apart. The index between them moved 0.055047%.

Breadth agreed with neither: 3,202 issues rose, 4,409 fell, a margin of 1,207. Eight of eleven sector proxies rose and the index fell, because technology, down 1.217426%, outvotes eight sectors on its own.

Then the part nobody headlined. On the NYSE, up volume beat down volume 1.184875 to 1 whilst advancing issues lost 0.885017 to 1. Money was not deployed. It was concentrated.

Our own ledger is having a worse week than the index. On 9 October we filed a shot that the two exchanges’ advance-decline ratios would straddle 1.000 on at least 3 of ten enumerated sessions, naming a broad uniform move as its killer. One session has scored and it went against us: 9 October printed 1.243108 and 1.411386, both above 1.000. Nil of ten. Monday sits outside the window and does not score, and it did the same thing from the other side anyway. The killer was ours, and it arrived on the only session we may count.

The One That Mattered

The one number is 0.055047%, and its distinction is that it describes nothing. Underneath it sit a 1.086014 percentage-point index spread, 1,207 more fallers than risers, the thinnest tape of the window, and an NYSE where the risers took more of the volume whilst losing on count. The index said nothing in particular had happened. The volume said the biggest names were the only ones being bought. The second one usually turns out to have been the message. Why did more volume go into the stocks that rose on a session when more stocks fell? We went down the rabbit hole in today’s Macro Edge. [https://antivestor.com/macro-edge]

Stock Market Edge

The Heaviest Sector Outvoted Eight Others and a Small-Cap Index Energy led at 1.43%, technology finished last at 1.22% lower, and materials decided the count

Premarket snapshot:

At the 07:30 UK capture, which is 02:30 ET, December ES held 7,848.25 on the bar opening 06:30 UTC, lower by 0.124077% against Monday’s settlement proxy of 7,858.00. December NQ was lower by 0.730624%, YM higher by 0.314719%, RTY higher by 0.256027%.

Sector rotation:

Energy led the eleven proxies at 1.429010% higher, staples next at 1.174637%. Technology was last at 1.217426% lower. Materials rose 0.020231%, one cent of movement, and the whole eight-up count rests on it. Treat it as fragile.

Earnings or guidance:

Four of the six largest lenders report today on two corroborated routes. No fiscal period appears here: no company release exists yet, and an aggregator’s label is not the company’s own word. Retail has decided Bank of America is the interesting one, ranking it sixth whilst it reports tomorrow.

Cross-asset nuance:

No Monday curve exists. The bond market was shut and Treasury published nothing, so every rates figure in this letter is Friday’s: the 2-year 4.80%, the 20-year 5.65% and the strict high point of all fourteen tenors for a 22nd published session. The dollar rose 0.3176 percentage points on a six-leg rebuild, the euro leg alone 68.8% of that. The VIX closed 15.21.

Crypto Market Edge

10 Sessions of Outflows, and 1 Issuer Doing Almost All of It Bitcoin fell 2.31% on Monday, then took 3.4231% back whilst Asia sold

Price snapshot:

Bitcoin closed 81,759.90 on the UTC mark, lower by 2.307533%. It then found a low of 80,953.41 in the hour beginning 00:00 UTC and was 83,724.51 by 07:00, up 3.4231% off that low, whilst Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Taiwan all traded lower on syndicated reports. Ether closed 2,444.46, lower by 3.5545%.

Flows and positioning:

Spot ether funds took out 85.4 million dollars, a tenth consecutive negative session from 29 September, the boundary fixed by a positive 17.1 million on 28 September. The BlackRock vehicle supplied 75.1 million of that and Grayscale 10.3 million. Nine issuers printed nothing. Bitcoin funds took out 65.4 million, one vehicle again supplying all of it.

Leadership and rotation:

Gold spot fell 0.568946% and December gold futures 0.609539%, which is the kind of 4-hundredths divergence that only matters when somebody quotes one and means the other. December silver fell 0.8764%, December copper rose 0.8219%.

Catalysts and roadmap:

Three bills price today. September consumer prices land tomorrow at 08:30 ET on three agreeing routes, which is the first genuine data event in a week that so far has consisted of a closed bond market and a holiday.

TL;DR

• The index moved 0.055047% and closed at 7,807.24, which is the only figure from Monday not describing anything that actually occurred.
• Combined, 3,202 stocks rose and 4,409 fell, a margin of 1,207, whilst eight of eleven sector proxies closed higher. All three are true.
• NYSE up volume beat down volume 1.184875 to 1 whilst advancing issues lost 0.885017 to 1. Money concentrated rather than deployed.
• Spot ether funds posted a tenth consecutive outflow, 85.4 million dollars, with one issuer supplying 75.1 million and nine printing nothing at all.
• Four of the six largest lenders report today, the morning after the lightest volume of the window. September consumer prices land tomorrow morning.

Fun Fact

The Curve’s High Point Did Not Exist for 34 Years The tenor now yielding most was discontinued in 1986 and brought back in 2020

The 20-year Treasury closed Friday at 5.65%, five basis points above the 30-year and the highest of all fourteen published tenors. It is also the newest of the coupon tenors. Treasury stopped issuing a 20-year in 1986 and did not sell another until May 2020. The most expensive money on the curve is being lent to the government for a maturity it spent 34 years refusing to offer.