One ruling, one rally, one billion-and-a-quarter authorisation. Bitcoin took none of them.
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Tesla ripped 8.45%. Saylor authorised $1.25 billion in sales. Both can’t be the same story. Equities cheered Fed independence. The franchise’s loudest Bitcoin bull cleared the way to sell.
The Supreme Court preserved Lisa Cook on Monday in a 5-4 ruling. Roberts and Kavanaugh crossed. Stocks closed up 1.18% on the S&P, 2.25% on the Nasdaq-100. Tesla led the Mag7 with an 8.45% snap. Alphabet rose 4.96% on its Dow promotion as Verizon paid the index-exit tax at -5.24%. Retail heard “Fed independence preserved”; institutions reframed it as “the hike path is finally stable”, and the tape rewarded both.
Six hours earlier, the franchise’s largest publicly traded Bitcoin treasury had announced a $1.25 billion authorisation to sell Bitcoin into its operating reserve. Strategy’s board formalised what Saylor’s June 1 tax-optimisation sale opened: a written sell program, a $2 billion buyback split across the common and the preferred, and a 12% coupon hike on a preferred that has refused to hold the $100 par for weeks. The 2-year held 4.10% through both. It has now held through PCE, the weekend strikes, and the Supreme Court ruling.
Bitcoin slipped to $59,175. Stocks ate. The franchise that needs cuts most refused the meal.
What does the corporate Bitcoin treasury do next when Thursday’s NFP arrives?
The One That Mattered
The number under the noise is not the +1.18% on the S&P. It is $1.25 billion. That is the Bitcoin sell authorisation Strategy’s board just handed Saylor, alongside a $2 billion buyback and a 12% coupon hike on a preferred that has spent weeks below par. “Never sell” is now a budgeted sell program.
The same Monday SPX closed +1.18% on a Supreme Court ruling that preserved a hawkish Fed. Equities bought “Fed independence”. Bitcoin sat the relief out.
How does the same Fed independence ruling that ripped equities by 1.18 percent leave Strategy authorising 1.25 billion of Bitcoin sales and the rest of crypto refusing to bid? Today’s Macro Edge walks the dots. [Read it here →]
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Stock Market Edge
Roberts joined Kavanaugh joined the liberals, and the tape called it a buy. The Supreme Court protected the Fed, and the Fed it protected hikes in October.
Premarket snapshot:
ES 7,501.00 +0.01%, NQ 30,044.50 -0.03% Tuesday morning. Monday’s cash printed SPX 7,440.44 (+1.18%) and Nasdaq-100 +2.25%. VIX 17.64, gold 4,029.30 (-0.24%), DXY 101.111 (-0.25%). The premarket is the polite version of “no view yet”.
Sector rotation:
Tesla led the Mag7 +8.45% Monday, dragging Alphabet +4.96% on its Dow add, Amazon +3.18%, Meta +2.2%. Verizon lost 5.24% on the index exit. Iridium +25.4% and Rocket Lab +15.9% on the $8B deal. Comcast +9.8% on the NBCU spin.
Earnings or guidance:
Nike reports fiscal Q4 after Tuesday’s close. Consensus: revenue down 2.1%, EPS down 5.7% YoY. The stock is down 24% on the quarter. Chipflation pass-through to consumer mega-caps gets its first sticker test the moment Nike opens the books on trainers. The Mag7 July guides are the next leg.
Cross-asset nuance:
The 2-year held 4.10% through Friday’s softer PCE, through the weekend US-Iran strikes, and through the SCOTUS-Cook ruling. CME FedWatch reads roughly 80% December hike odds. DXY softened 0.25%, gold fell 0.24% to $4,029, and WTI added eight cents to $70.81. The hawkish lock-in is a feature, not a forecast.
📊 There’s a level on SPX I’m watching closely this morning. My full analysis briefing has it – plus what happens if we hold it, and what happens if we don’t. [Read it here →]
Crypto Market Edge
Saylor approved the sales he swore he would never make. Twice was an event; a budget is a posture. $1.25 billion authorised, a 12% coupon, and Bitcoin still under $60K.
Price snapshot:
Bitcoin traded $59,175.47 Tuesday morning, down 1.64% from Monday’s $60,104 recovery off a $58,801 low. Fear and Greed at 24. The 50-day EMA at $66,913 and the 200-day at $76,517 sit overhead like ceiling fans on the wrong setting.
Flows & positioning:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs tracking roughly $4 billion of June outflows; BlackRock IBIT shed $3.3B since the May 14 peak; Fidelity FBTC -$456M. Open interest down 18.72% to $45.62B, 83% of recent liquidations were longs. The bid that washed out has not returned.
Leadership & rotation:
Strategy holds 847,362 BTC and now an authorised $1.25 billion sell program. STRC lifted 9.48% premarket to $81.64 on the 12% dividend bump, the size of hike a fixed-income manager runs to fix something. Never sell, sold once, bought the dip, bought another, and now the board has signed off on a $1.25 billion sell budget.
Catalysts & roadmap:
The US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve blueprint is due before 22 July under the standing executive order. BNY enabled institutional USDC mint and redeem Monday, the boring on-chain rail that keeps working while Bitcoin contracts. Strategy’s next 8-K is the live variable for whether the $1.25 billion gets used in part, in full, or at all.
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TL;DR – The Bottom Line
- SCOTUS preserved Cook 5-4. The hawkish Warsh Fed is now court-protected. SPX closed +1.18% reading hawkish-locked-in as risk-on, which is the same Fed the rally still needs cuts from.
- Tesla snapped +8.45%, GOOGL +4.96% on its Dow add, Verizon -5.24% on the exit. Comcast +9.8% on the NBCU spin, Rocket Lab and Iridium spiked on their $8B deal.
- Strategy’s board authorised up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales plus $2 billion in buybacks. Sale count was one. The next sales now have a budget and a stamped form.
- Bitcoin slipped to $59,175 overnight, refusing the relief stocks took. Fear and Greed at 24, June ETF outflows roughly $4 billion. The bounce did not break.
- Doha talks Tuesday. Nike after the close. NFP Thursday. Bond market closed Friday July 3 for Independence Day. The 2-year held 4.10% through all of yesterday’s headlines.
📌 Fun Fact
The 11-month rule. Bitcoin has now logged back-to-back quarterly losses for the first time since the 2022 bear market drawdown.
Meme of the Day:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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