Earnings Took 27% Off ServiceNow and 20% Off Fortinet, and Nasdaq Futures Were 3.5% Lower After 2 Nights

Earnings Took 27% Off ServiceNow and 20% Off Fortinet, and Nasdaq Futures Were 3.5% Lower After 2 Nights Alphabet, ServiceNow and Fortinet reported before Thursday’s open, Amazon, Intel and Reddit before Friday’s, and 9 of 11 sector proxies rose in between

Earnings season reached some very familiar names this week and they did not enjoy it. Alphabet reported at 20:02 UTC on Wednesday, ServiceNow and Fortinet that evening; the first carrier this book holds for those two is stamped 01:59 UTC Thursday. On Thursday Alphabet closed 12.64% lower, Fortinet 20.09% lower and ServiceNow 26.95% lower. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.38% to 29,402.51 and 95.45% of that was the opening gap; the cash session added 4.55%. The S&P 500 gapped 44.37 points lower, won back 20.78 by the close and finished 0.30% down at 7,720.39.

Then the second shift clocked in. Amazon and Intel reported at 20:01 UTC Thursday, Reddit at 20:07 UTC, and the wires marked them 7.3%, 23.03% and 18.21% lower by 04:35 UTC. December Nasdaq futures read 28,925.25 on the 07:45 UTC capture, 2.15% under Thursday’s settle and 3.52% under Wednesday’s. Two nights, two rounds of results, and both index falls arrived while the cash market was shut. Each stamp precedes the move it is set against; the results are named as the cause, scoped to each name, and no index weights are held, so no name’s share of either index fall is weighed. Marvell fell 13.24% too, on a reported deal for Lumentum rather than a report card, so it is not in the count.

Memo. To: six companies. From: the rest of the market. Re: Thursday. We were fine, thanks.

On Thursday 9 of the 11 sector proxies rose, NYSE advancers beat decliners 2.34 to 1 and the Russell 2000 rose 1.01%. The damage is real and narrow: six names that reported fell hard and the indices fell after them; this book holds no weights to say how much of each fall is theirs.

One receipt, this book’s own. Yesterday it printed relays with Microsoft 2 to 5% higher and Alphabet 8 to 11% lower after their results, labelled them relays, and said the cash session would mark them. Microsoft closed 0.16% lower, Alphabet 12.64% lower, both outside their bands. Relays are labelled for a reason, and on Thursday the reason turned up twice.

The bond market spent Thursday on something else. At 12:30 UTC September PCE printed 3.6% on the year, core 3.1%, in line with the wires, and the quarter’s PCE price index 2.1% annualised, from 5.0%. The 2-year closed 4.61%, down 6 basis points, its lowest close of October; twelve of fourteen tenors fell. It rose into the release with Wednesday night’s results already public, fell in the release bar, and fell again in the bar the Nasdaq opened. The release precedes the fall and carries its sign, so it is published as the cause, share unweighed. A 17:01 UTC wrap about December hike talk arrived four and a half hours after the fall began: a coincidence, published as such. The 7-year auction cleared at 4.89% on cover of 2.46, mid-run. Then the evening started.

The One That Mattered

The one number is a pair: Nasdaq futures 3.52% below Wednesday’s settle at the capture, against six results-driven falls of more than 7% in the same two nights: three cash falls of 12.64% to 26.95% and three wire marks of 7.3% to 23.03%. Both index legs landed at the open or overnight, after the stamps; Thursday’s cash session added 4.55% of the Nasdaq’s fall while most stocks rose. This book names the results as the cause, scoped to each name, and cannot weigh their share of the index. The reader who usually turns out right here reads the breadth before the headline index.

Why did the 2-year fall 6 basis points on the day the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4% after earnings? We went down the rabbit hole in today’s Macro Edge. https://antivestor.com/macro-edge

Overnight Excitement

Nasdaq Futures 2.2% Lower, and the Second Night of Results Queued Up Before the Contract Opened Amazon and Intel at 20:01 UTC, Reddit at 20:07 UTC, and a reopen at 22:00 UTC already 1.3% under the settle

Three companies reported inside seven minutes of the bell, two hours before the Nasdaq contract reopened. Amazon: net sales $201.9bn against a $202.31bn consensus, earnings $1.89 against $1.97, AWS up 39%, Q4 guided $240bn to $247bn against $244.2bn, about $220bn of 2026 capex reaffirmed; marked 8.7% lower at 20:13 UTC and 7.3% lower by 04:35 UTC on wires. Intel guided Q4 to $15bn to $16bn against $17.05bn; Reddit guided below consensus. Starring Amazon as a capex line with a cloud attached, Intel as a guide a billion or two light, and Reddit.

The Nasdaq contract reopened 1.29% under Thursday’s 29,562 settle, printed its overnight low of 28,821.50 before 02:00 UTC, 2.50% under, and read 28,925.25 on the 07:45 UTC capture, down 2.15%; 28,977.50 by 09:00 UTC, down 1.98%. S&P futures: down 0.99% at the capture, 0.84% by 09:00 UTC. Every stamp above precedes every read this book holds: for a second night the overnight leg has causes, and their share cannot be weighed, no index weights held.

Tokyo and Seoul fell hard on syndicated reports, Seoul hard enough to trip a halt; the futures made their low during the Asian morning and the only stamps held are 05:22 UTC wraps, after it, so nothing is attributed. Bitcoin marked 77,903.65, down 4.10%, after a transfer out of Binance at 20:24 UTC that wires value between $2bn and $6.3bn, wide even for crypto. December WTI printed 104.99 at 01:45 UTC with tanker and strike-options reports on the wires, retrievable here only through a 05:49 UTC wrap; sequence not established, no cause named.

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Stock Market Edge

9 of 11 Sectors Rose, 2.34 NYSE Stocks Rose for Every 1 That Fell, and the Index Called It a Down Day A 4.27 point sector spread, a 35th session of the 20-year on top, and a premarket 2.15% outside the band with its causes stamped

Premarket snapshot:

On the 07:45 to 07:50 UTC capture bar, read twice on all four contracts, S&P futures were 7,677.75, 0.99% below Thursday’s 7,754.25 settlement; Nasdaq futures 28,925.25, down 2.15%; Dow futures 52,477, down 0.07%; Russell futures 2,854.60, down 0.44%. Re-quoted on the 08:15 UTC bar, S&P futures 7,673.50, down 1.04%, and Nasdaq futures 28,898, down 2.25%; on the 09:00 UTC bar 7,688.75, down 0.84%, and 28,977.50, down 1.98%. The VIX’s global-hours bar read 18.55 at 08:10 UTC and 18.08 at 08:55 UTC against Thursday’s 17.20 close.

Sector rotation:

Nine of eleven sector proxies rose on a day the S&P 500 fell 0.30% to 7,720.39. Health care 2.40%, real estate 2.21%, staples 1.54%, utilities 1.53%, financials 1.44%, materials 1.29%, industrials 0.97%, discretionary 0.75%, energy 0.38%; technology 1.18% and communication services 1.87% lower. Spread 4.27 points. New York counted 1,873 risers to 801 fallers, a 2.34 ratio; Nasdaq 2,379 to 2,539. The semiconductor funds fell 1.55% and 1.06%, 0.49 points apart: the seventh session scored on the 21 October divergence shot, none against it; with three sessions left and four needed, it cannot fail. Marked secured.

Earnings or guidance:

Alphabet 12.64% lower on Wednesday’s results; ServiceNow 26.95% and Fortinet 20.09% lower on results the same evening, wires citing a slower subscription guide at one and a services miss at the other. Marvell 13.24% lower on reported Lumentum talks, not results. Microsoft 0.16% lower, Meta 1.96% higher, Apple 1.48% higher. Amazon closed 4.25% lower before it reported, then the block above. Strategy reported too; its bitcoin count moves here only when the 8-K is read. Apple reports Monday; Exxon and Chevron before today’s open.

Cross-asset nuance:

One of fourteen Treasury tenors rose, twelve fell, one held. The 2-year 4.61%, down 6 basis points; the 10-year 4.98%, down 7; the 20-year 5.35%, down 6 and the top of the curve for a 35th consecutive session; the 30-year 5.32%, down 5. 2s10s 37 basis points from 38, 2s30s 71 from 70: twelve of fourteen tenors came down together, a change of character after Wednesday’s split. The VIX closed 17.20, up 1.71%; the three-month VIX 19.37, a ratio of 0.89, contango. The dollar closed 101.85, down 0.29%. December WTI settled 102.00, down 0.76%, and read 103.53 by 08:20 UTC; January Brent 110.80, the front by volume. Gold spot 4,020.88, down 1.13%, and 3,988.40 by 08:20 UTC; December silver 52.38, down 2.40%, and 50.88 by the re-quote.

Crypto Market Edge

Bitcoin Fell 4.1% on a Breach Nobody Can Size, and the Flow Page Failed a 5th Read 77,903.65 on the midnight mark, a loss estimate from $2bn to $6.3bn, and an ether shot closed on failure of measurement

Price snapshot:

Bitcoin marked 77,903.65 at 00:00 UTC, down 4.10% on Thursday’s 81,237.85, and read 77,976.35 on the 08:20 UTC bar; Coinbase marked 77,780.33, 0.16% apart. Ether marked 2,251.06, down 4.48%. The first on-chain transfer out of Binance is stamped 20:24 UTC, the earliest wire 21:02 UTC; bitcoin was lower by 20:35 UTC on the wire’s own account. The loss is $2bn on one wire and $6.3bn on another; this book publishes the disagreement, not a number.

Flows and positioning:

Farside’s bitcoin page returned a client error on a fifth cache-busted read and the ether page served a launch-era table for a fourth edition. Relays put Thursday’s bitcoin flow at about $17m in and ether’s at $105m out; not carried as figures. Cumulatives stay frozen at 57,361 million and 12,748 million. The ether issuer shot filed on 20 October closes on failure of measurement under yesterday’s stated condition, and reopens if the page renders 26 to 30 October in full before 10 November. The ether table is still in July. It has been told about August.

Leadership and rotation:

On the crypto-only board at 07:32 UTC PEPE ranked first, bitcoin second at a canonical sentiment score of 34 from 29, ether 11th. On the all-asset board bitcoin ranked 14th, behind Intel, Amazon and Reddit: where a 4% fall in the largest coin ranks when three companies did worse.

Catalysts and roadmap:

Today: employment cost index 12:30 UTC; Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC; Musalem listed for 16:30 UTC on a calendar relay; December Brent’s last trading day. Monday: ISM manufacturing, Apple’s results. Tuesday: the midterms and JOLTS. Friday 6 November: October payrolls at 13:30 UTC, an hour later on the clock because US clocks change on Sunday.

TL;DR

• Nasdaq futures were 3.52% below Wednesday’s settle at the 07:45 UTC capture and S&P futures 1.36%, after two nights of results and six falls of more than 7%.
• ServiceNow fell 26.95%, Fortinet 20.09% and Alphabet 12.64% on Thursday after overnight results, and 95.45% of the Nasdaq 100’s 1.38% fall was the opening gap.
• Amazon, Intel and Reddit reported between 20:01 and 20:07 UTC on Thursday and were marked 7.3%, 23.03% and 18.21% lower on wires by 04:35 UTC.
• Beneath it nine of eleven sector proxies rose, NYSE advancers beat decliners 2.34 to 1 and the Russell 2000 rose 1.01%. The scoreboard fell; the team mostly won.
• The 2-year fell 6 basis points to 4.61%, its lowest October close, on a morning the year said 3.6% and the quarter 2.1%; it fell in the release bar.

Fun Fact

The Fed Changed Its Favourite Thermometer in 2000 The index that printed 3.6% on Thursday has been the preferred gauge for 26 years

The Federal Open Market Committee switched its preferred inflation measure from the consumer price index to the PCE price index in its February 2000 Monetary Policy Report, citing broader coverage and an allowance for consumers changing what they buy.