NFP Day… Let’s Stay Mechanical | SPX Analysis 02 May 2025

Eight Days Up. Still Bullish. Still Waiting.

Ahoy there, Trader! ‍‍⚓️

It’s Phil…

It’s the first Friday of the month, which means one thing:

It’s NFP Day.
The data probably dropped just before you opened this – and hopefully, it didn’t drop you in the process.

As I write this, we’re still pre-release.
Futures are ticking higher – up ~35 points  – but we’re still tucked under yesterday’s high.
Which means: no breakout, no rejection, no drama… yet.

And honestly?
That’s just fine.

Because the Tag n Turn system remains bullish.
The chart is clean.
The bias is clear.
The only missing piece is the pulse bar – the Turn or continuation trigger.

With eight straight up days, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t eyeing a pullback.
But until the system tells me otherwise, I’m not flipping bearish on a hunch.

I’m keeping the charts stripped back.
Reset. Mechanical. Ready.

We’ve tagged the upper Bollinger Band.
Now we wait for the market to choose:
Do we turn and reverse?
Or break and accelerate?

Either way – I won’t guess.
I’ll trade it when I see it.

Calm trader waiting for Turn setup while chaos unfolds post-NFP.


⬇️⬇️⬇️ – keep scrolling for more in-depth analysis – ⬇️⬇️⬇️


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SPX Market View

If you’re holding your breath waiting for the NFP fallout – breathe out.

Because while the number might hit like a hammer or a feather…
our system was already set.

As of this morning, we’re still sitting just beneath Thursday’s highs, with overnight futures up around 35 points.
That’s strength… but not breakout strength.
Not yet.

The Tag n Turn system remains bullish – and that’s the signal that matters.

We’re in the classic waiting zone:

  • Upper Bollinger Band = Tagged

  • Pulse bar = Pending

And sure – with eight straight green days behind us, a retrace wouldn’t surprise me.
But guess what?

The system doesn’t care about streaks.
It doesn’t care about nerves, stats, or “surely we’re due” logic.
It just waits for price to move and confirms with a pulse bar.

So for now, I’m doing the same:

  • No trades based on gut.

  • No fades based on emotion.

  • Just clarity. Clean charts. Mechanical edge.

If we get a bullish continuation signal today post-NFP, I’ll trade it.
If we reverse and the pulse bar flips us short, I’ll switch.

But nothing triggers until price confirms.
Not news.
Not feeling.
Only the setup.

Because the real headline isn’t “NFP Moves Market” –
It’s “Traders Who Wait Win More.”

SPX 2 May 2025


GEX Analysis Update

  • 5600/5650 Call Walls
  • there doesnt look to be much negative gamma to suggest a huge down move is possible, doesnt mean it cant happen, it just wont be MM fuelled.

GEX 2 May 2025


Expert Insights:

Mistake #1: Front-running news releases.
“Surely this NFP will tank the market…”
Fix: Let price confirm your bias. Don’t gamble on data.

Mistake #2: Fighting the structure.
“We’ve gone up 8 days, it must reverse.”
Fix: Structure overrides streaks. Don’t fade a clean trend until it turns.

Mistake #3: Cluttered charts in volatile zones.
More lines ≠ more clarity.
Fix: Keep it stripped. If your system’s mechanical, your chart should reflect it.

Vintage chart showing clean trade structure above noisy data headlines.


Rumour Has It…

In a shocking twist, the NFP report has been delayed due to powdered sugar clogging the fax machine at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Insiders say a rogue trader bribed the janitor with a dozen donuts to stall the release until he could finish repositioning his butterfly spread.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg accidentally aired last month’s data but replaced all the job numbers with cricket emoji.
Traders on X are still debating whether = bullish or bearish.

The only confirmed takeaway?
Don’t trade the news. Trade the setup.

This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!

Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?

Satirical newsroom chaos showing NFP delay over donut bribery.


Fun Fact – Did You Know?

The term “Non-Farm Payroll” exists because back in the day, farm work was too seasonal and volatile to include in economic employment measures.

So the government just… left it out.

Which means every month, we get a market-moving number that intentionally ignores an entire sector of labour.
Seems legit.

What’s more ironic?
Even though it’s famously unreliable and regularly revised, traders still gamble their accounts on it.

Better idea?
Let the market react.
Then trade the pulse bar that forms after.

Satirical blueprint showing how NFP excludes key sectors.

Meme of the Day

“When you’re waiting for the NFP to wreck everyone else’s plan first.”

Comic showing structured trader calmly acting while others panic over news.


Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece

p.s. There are 3 ways I can help you…

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