Bulls Get Rug Gently Slipped Back with Cup of Tea and Hobnob
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Just when you think it’s time for the bears to party, the rug gets pulled – or perhaps the reverse in this case – gently slipped back under the bulls’ feet, with a nice cup of tea and a hobnob (the only biscuit for hardcore dunking enthusiasts)!
On SPX, we’ve seen this pattern before. I’ve conveniently circled a few areas of interest on the daily chart where similar action has unfolded. The big question remains: will this market rally from here, or have the bulls finally run out of steam?
Uncle Russell looks a little different, having recently broken out of the rising channel I had marked. I’m inclined to override things with the breakout, but the Income System has flipped to bullish, suggesting we could see a rally targeting the breakout point, Bollinger mid-point, and gap fill – which are all around the same or similar levels.
It’s Friday, and it’s been a rather good week again. Anyone for a long weekend?
Keep scrolling for the anchored VWAP pinch analysis…
SPX Market Briefing:
Today’s action perfectly demonstrates why systematic pattern recognition trumps emotional market calls every time.
Current Multi-Market Status:
- SPX: Familiar daily pattern playing out – rally potential vs bull exhaustion debate
- RUT: Broken rising channel with Income System bullish override consideration
- /ES Futures: Pinching between anchored VWAP lines suggesting narrow range Friday
- /CL Futures: Breakout confirmed targeting $67-67.50 range
- /GC Futures: Pinching between A.VWAP lines awaiting directional clarity
SPX Pattern Recognition:
The daily chart shows this familiar pattern where bears think it’s party time, only to see bulls get their footing back. Historical precedent suggests careful analysis rather than emotional positioning.
The circled areas on the daily timeframe show similar setups where market participants made premature directional assumptions. Systematic approach requires waiting for actual confirmation rather than anticipating outcomes.
Uncle Russell’s Channel Break:
Uncle Rus breaking out of the rising channel I had marked changes the tactical approach. The Income System flipping to bullish creates an interesting override situation.
This means I may need to take a discretionary bear position OR take profits at the confluence level (breakout point/Bollinger mid-point/gap fill) and assess what develops next. An upper Bollinger band tag isn’t happening anytime soon, and the bear PFZ level sits below recent lows around 2395.
Small bull profit target followed by waiting for bear PFZ trigger seems the optimal approach for capturing both scenarios whilst maintaining mechanical discipline.
ES Futures Anchored VWAP Analysis:
Over on /ES futures with the bigger picture in mind, prices are pinching between the anchored VWAP lines (something I’m experimenting with currently). Looking at historical price action, when we see huge rejection spikes, what normally follows is an inside or narrow ranging day.
I’d expect exactly that – a narrow ranging Friday – confirmed by current price action pinching between the A.VWAP boundaries.
Crude Oil Breakout Confirmation:
/CL crude oil’s breakout move is confirmed, and it’s game on with breakout targets between $67 and $67.50 expected. Yesterday’s Bollinger band breakout was indeed short-lived as suggested, and now we can hopefully see regular trending movements pushing toward target.
Should this breakout trade fail, I’ll assess the “break in” setup – a hybrid of breakout and range reversal strategies from my 6 Money Making Patterns.
Gold’s VWAP Pinch:
/GC gold futures are demonstrating the same behaviour as /ES, pinching between the A.VWAP lines. If price can reclaim the rising A.VWAP, we can consider that a breakout and look to add into the bear swing. Targets remain as previously mentioned.
Today’s Systematic Plan:
More of a wait-and-see situation considering all factors. It’s Friday after a rather good week – perfect timing for tactical patience over forced positioning.
SPX – S&P500
RUT – Russel 2000
/ES – S&P500 Futures
/CL – Crude Oil Futures
/GC – Gold Futures
In Other News…
PCE inflation data terrorises market participants
ES slumped -0.3% to 6,590 like Percy discovering the office ran out of his favourite tea bags permanently. Overnight range 6,585-6,610 tighter than Mac’s control over emergency whisky reserves during stressful market conditions. NQ dropped -0.4% whilst YM managed -0.2% because apparently even industrial dinosaurs can sense impending economic doom. VIX climbing to 14.2 from 13.8 suggests anxiety levels somewhere between “mild concern about weekend plans” and “genuinely worried about mortgage payments.”
Healthcare suffers pharmaceutical tariff trauma
Healthcare leading sector weakness following Trump’s 100% pharmaceutical tariff announcement because apparently making medicine more expensive solves healthcare problems. Oracle continuing AI trade scepticism decline down 3.8% for third session, proving even enterprise software can fall from grace. Technology mixed with semiconductor pressure whilst cloud names showing resilience like digital survivors in analogue apocalypse.
Consumer bifurcation reaches peak philosophical complexity
Costco shining with Q4 beat at $5.95 EPS versus $5.81 expected because warehouse shopping transcends economic uncertainty again. CarMax crashing 21% missing estimates badly with 64 cents versus $1.04 expected EPS, proving that selling used cars isn’t recession-proof after all. Consumer bifurcation continues with membership models outperforming traditional retail formats because paying annual fees apparently guarantees loyalty.
Treasury curve discovers steepening anxiety
Treasury curve steepening as ten-year yield hits 4.17% whilst two-year holds 4.19% because bond markets can smell inflation data approaching like bloodhounds. Gold maintaining near $2,685 records whilst dollar strength continues at 101.5, proving precious metals and currency can both be simultaneously pessimistic. Credit spreads widening marginally on valuation concerns because even corporate bonds have trust issues.
-Hazel
Rumour Has It…
Breaking from the Financial Nuts newsroom: Percy was discovered arranging his desk pigeons in “Tea and Hobnob Formation” whilst claiming they had “predicted the exact rug-slipping manoeuvre through advanced dunking biscuit analysis.”
Hazel was spotted updating her “Bull Rug Replacement Protocols” whilst simultaneously preparing “Friday Long Weekend Management” procedures for when systematic approaches need weekend monitoring.
Mac raised his afternoon whisky and declared, “My dear colleagues, when bears expect parties but bulls get tea service, only pattern recognition saves the day!”
Kash was livestreaming about “anchored VWAP being basically like DeFi liquidity pinching but with actual price action compression analysis,” whilst Wallie just grumbled, “In my day, we didn’t need fancy VWAP lines! Price went up or down, and that was enough information!”
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact:
Samsung’s $105 Billion Employee Bonus “Mistake”
In 2018, Samsung Securities accidentally gave employees shares worth $105 billion instead of cash dividends—and 16 employees actually tried to sell them before anyone noticed!
This is hands-down the greatest “my dog ate my homework” excuse in corporate history, except the dog was a keyboard and the homework was worth more than most countries’ annual budgets!
Meme of the Day:
When you expect bear party time but the market serves bulls tea and hobnobs instead
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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