Straight Line Moves Overextended – BB Pinching Again – Pop Lower Like 2 April Could Still Develop
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
The financial yoyo continues.
And perhaps I was a little too eager writing off the VIX rising trendline last week.
Twenty-one hours of negotiations in Islamabad. JD Vance led the US side. Iran’s Araghchi led theirs. Pakistan brokered the room. They walked out empty-handed. Iran rejected every US red line – no nuclear commitment, no uranium surrender, no Hormuz handover. Vance told reporters: “They have chosen not to accept our terms.”
Trump responded at 3:14am ET. The US Navy will blockade all ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz. Central Command confirmed operations begin at 10am ET. WTI surged 8% to $104.24. Brent hit $102.29. The ceasefire lasted six days.
BTC was giving a few clues over the weekend as to what might happen at the open – a clear push lower off the range highs. Unsurprisingly. The 6 money making patterns acting out again.
With the straight line moves, the markets are overextended on the indexes. A pause or snap back is likely before the eventual push higher. The TnT on SPX and RUT are both still technically bullish. Last week’s decision not to hold over the weekend to avoid the noise was certainly a good one – as evidenced by the Tag n Turn wins on Friday. On both 30-minute charts the MACD-v extreme has been exited and the caution with last week’s bear tag continues – this time with the bear flip. Similarly to last week’s analysis and based on the new research, a pop lower similar to 2 April could well develop still.
Given that the BBs are pinching together again – waiting for a clear break in either direction is the sensible choice. Official system updates and software coming soon.
Earnings season arrives today. Goldman Q1 before the bell. JPMorgan tomorrow. Jamie Dimon’s oil shock credit commentary is the week’s most watched macro signal.
As for Friday’s trades – the Premium Poppers played out nicely with the new scoring system. Friday was a top tier day. The morning dragged its feet but the potential for a good setup remained, and then just prior to the cut-off point the software pinged: now. Two back-to-back setups, reasonably speedy result, little headache, 2x risk. The Tag n Turn also delivered on both SPX and RUT with the bear-to-bull flip sequence.
Let’s see what Monday brings. Other than a gap down at the open.
BB Pinching. Wait For The Break. Yoyo Continues. Goldman Before The Bell. Gap Down At The Open.
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Market Briefing:
Monday 13 Apr – ceasefire dead / blockade begins.
- Islamabad talks collapsed:
- 21 hours of negotiations / JD Vance US side / Araghchi Iran side / Pakistan brokered
- Iran rejected all red lines – nuclear commitment, uranium surrender, Hormuz handover
- Trump 3:14am ET: Navy blockade of all ships entering or leaving Hormuz / Central Command confirms 10am ET
- WTI +8% to $104.24 / Brent $102.29 / WSJ: military strikes back on the table
- Futures: S&P -0.55% / Nasdaq -0.6% / Dow -256 points / seven winning sessions unwound overnight
- Earnings season:
- Goldman Q1 before the bell ($16.49 EPS est. +16% YoY / $16.97B revenue / conference call 9:30am ET)
- JPMorgan tomorrow / Citigroup + Wells Fargo Wednesday / Morgan Stanley + BofA Thursday
- Dimon’s oil shock credit commentary: most watched macro signal of the week
- Monday read: gap down at open / TnT still technically bullish / BB pinching again / MACD-v extremes exited / pop lower possible like 2 April / waiting for clear directional break / not chasing
Market Snapshot
- ES: 6,819.00 / -44.75 (-0.65%) / gap down / seven winning sessions unwound
- YM: 47,929 / +165 (+0.33%) / Dow resilient / Goldman read ahead
- NQ: 25,117.50 / -215.50 (-0.85%) / tech hardest hit on renewed war risk
- RTY: 2,620.90 / -28.10 (-1.06%) / Uncle Russell giving back
- GC: 4,756.50 / -14.50 (-0.30%) / slight pullback / stagflation bid building
- CL: 103.89 / +8.26 (+8.64%) / blockade news / WTI back toward $104
- VIX: 21.10 / +1.88 (+9.78%) / trendline not dead after all / watching
- BTC: 70,820.02 / +0.09% / gave clues over weekend / push lower off range highs
Tag ‘n Turn
Both instruments technically still bullish on TnT. MACD-v extremes exited on both 30-minute charts. BB pinching again. Waiting for a clear break rather than chasing the gap down. Pop lower possible before the next bull leg.
The gap down this morning does not immediately flip the TnT signals – both SPX and RUT remain technically bullish above their respective levels. What the weekend’s news has done is reset the MACD-v from extreme territory and triggered the BB to pinch again. That pinch is the same configuration that preceded the prior moves in both directions. Based on the new research, a pop lower similar to 2 April is a live scenario – the bear flip caution from last week remains relevant. Waiting for a confirmed directional break rather than entering into gap noise. The straight-line move of the past seven sessions needs a reset before the next leg. This is the reset.
SPX Analysis
Technically bullish above 6,793. But MACD-v extreme exited. BB pinching. Pop lower like 2 April possible. Waiting for the break. Target pending.
The seven-session straight-line move higher has left SPX technically extended. The Bollinger Bands have pinched on the 30-minute chart – the same configuration as last week before the next directional move. The MACD-v has exited the bullish extreme it was sitting at on Friday, which means the directional energy of the recent move has been largely consumed. The TnT remains bullish above 6,793 but the gap down and the BB pinch together suggest a pause or flush lower is more likely as a first move than an immediate continuation. If the pop lower develops, the 6,719 level on the daily is the next meaningful reference. If the pinch resolves upward, the all-time high thesis is back in play.
Current Status: Bullish Above (Flipped) 6,793 / PFZ 6,753 / Target Pending
Gamma Exposure
Still positive gamma. Flip point 6,629. Put and call walls both at 7,000. IV 15.77% still below historic vol 17.32%. IV Percentile 67%. Positive gamma environment intact despite blockade news.
Despite the overnight escalation, the GEX picture remains constructive. The flip point at 6,629 gives approximately 190 points of positive gamma cushion below current price – meaning the mechanical stabilisation environment is still in place even with a gap down. IV at 15.77% against historic vol of 17.32% – the market is still pricing calm relative to recent actual movement. IV Percentile at 67% is down from the 76-96% range of two weeks ago. The put and call walls are both still at 7,000, defining the range. The positive gamma environment will slow and buffer the gap down mechanically. This is not the same environment as the early conflict sessions where negative gamma amplified every move.
Current Status: Positive gamma / flip point 6,629 / put wall 7,000 / call wall 7,000 / IV 15.77% below HV / IV Percentile 67% / 190-point gamma cushion
RUT Analysis
Uncle Russell also technically bullish above 2,636. Same BB pinch. Same MACD-v reset. Same read – waiting for the directional break. Pop lower remains possible.
RUT mirrors the SPX picture exactly. Technically bullish above 2,636, MACD-v extreme exited, BB pinching on the 30-minute chart. The gap down this morning brings price closer to the PFZ level at 2,617 but has not yet triggered a bearish flip. The same logic applies – waiting for a confirmed break rather than entering into the gap noise. If the pop lower develops to retest recent support, that is the next entry consideration. If the BB resolves upward, the bull is back in business.
Current Status: Bullish Above (Flipped) 2,636 / PFZ 2,617 / Target Pending
Post Trade DeBriefing – 10 Apr 2026
SPX Premium Poppers: Top tier day. Two trades, both at 2r with the new scoring system. The morning dragged its feet but the setup potential was always there. Software pinged just before the cut-off: now. Two back-to-back entries, speedy result, no headache.
- Trade 1: 1st BO at 2r. 67.7% ROC from a $12 move.
- Trade 2: 3rd BO at 2r. 50.0% ROC from a $9 move.
2 trades / 2 wins / 0 losses.
SPX Tag n Turn: Bear-to-bull flip sequence. The bear entry lost — which was the caution call from the research — and the bull reversal confirmed the 95%+ success rate the new scoring system had identified.
- Trade 1: Bear, 1r. -47.7% ROC from a $35 move. Stop hit as expected given the warning.
- Trade 2: Bull reversal, 1r. 95.3% ROC from a $20 move.
1 win / 1 loss. Net positive on the week.
RUT Tag n Turn: Same pattern, same result.
- Trade 1: Bear, 1r. -5.7% ROC from a $12 move.
- Trade 2: Bull reversal, 1r. 95.1% ROC from a $3 move.
1 win / 1 loss. Net positive on the week.
Not holding over the weekend was the right call. All confirmed.
Rounding Off
The Yoyo Six days. That is how long the ceasefire lasted. Pakistan brokered it on Tuesday night. The Islamabad talks collapsed on Sunday after 21 hours. Iran rejected every US red line. Trump ordered the Navy blockade at 3:14am ET. WTI is back above $104. The financial yoyo is back in full swing. The VIX trendline that was written off last week has not been written off. Noted.
Goldman This Morning Goldman Q1 reports before the bell. Street expects $16.49 EPS — up 16% year-on-year on elevated trading desk volumes. Revenue estimate $16.97B. Conference call at 9:30am ET. The number itself matters less than the commentary on credit markets under oil shock conditions and the forward guidance on client positioning. JPMorgan follows tomorrow. Dimon’s commentary on the oil shock’s credit impact is the most watched macro signal of the week.
Earnings Season Context Q1 earnings were compiled largely before the ceasefire and certainly before the ceasefire’s collapse. They describe a war economy. The guidance season that follows will describe whatever the next two weeks produce. Thirteen S&P names hit all-time highs last week during the ceasefire. That context is worth keeping in mind as Q1 numbers arrive this week.
The BB Pinch – Again Same configuration as last week. Both 30-minute charts pinching. MACD-v extremes exited. The research says wait for the break. Last week the break resolved upward. This week the gap down is the first move. Pop lower before the next leg is the live scenario. Same process applies: wait for the confirmed signal, not the gap noise.
Current Status: Technically bullish / BB pinching / MACD-v reset / pop lower possible / Goldman 9:30am / blockade 10am ET / Dimon tomorrow / wait for the break
Expert Insights
“The trend is your friend until the end when it bends.”
— Ed Seykota, widely attributed across interviews and Market Wizards, public
Seven consecutive winning sessions. The longest winning run since October. Straight-line moves. Overextended. And then a 3:14am Trump post and a Navy blockade and the trend bends.
The new research confirms that a pop lower before the next bull leg is the most likely scenario when the MACD-v extreme is exited and the BB pinches in the context of an overextended straight-line move.
The trend is still the friend — the TnT remains technically bullish. But the bend is happening. Waiting for the pinch to resolve before re-engaging is exactly the right application of knowing when the trend is your friend and when it is temporarily not.
[Source: Ed Seykota — widely attributed, documented in Jack Schwager “Market Wizards,” John Wiley & Sons, 1989, public]
AI-BotView
Beep-Beep, Trader
It’s Cachè-AI-Bot,
Cachè-AI terminal in the corner of the newsroom. The post-ceasefire framework reached 19 pages before being archived at 11:59pm Sunday. A new document opened at 3:15am ET Monday: “Hormuz Blockade Risk Assessment – Week 2.” It is already 7 pages. Page 4 covers the distinction between a ceasefire collapsing and a ceasefire never having been formally ratified. Nobody asked for page 4. The terminal is processing. It is always processing.
Beep-Beep.
1 – A Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz executed by the United States represents a qualitatively different military action from the previous threat framework of the conflict. Previous operations targeted Iranian military and energy infrastructure. A blockade targets all maritime traffic entering or leaving the strait – including vessels from non-belligerent nations. [Source: US Central Command public statement, 13 April 2026 | International law on maritime blockades, UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, public]. Under international maritime law, a blockade must be declared, effective, and impartially enforced across all flags. The enforcement-against-non-Iranian-vessels element creates a diplomatic incident risk with China, India, and European shipping interests that the previous conflict phases did not. This is the most escalatory action of the conflict in terms of international legal implications.
2 – Goldman Sachs Q1 earnings reporting into a Hormuz blockade morning creates a specific earnings-release-versus-macro-event sequencing problem. The Q1 numbers were compiled during a period that included the ceasefire oil rally. [Source: Goldman Sachs investor relations calendar, public | S&P Q1 earnings consensus data, public]. The trading desk revenues that are expected to drive the 16% YoY earnings beat were generated partly during the ceasefire relief rally. The blockade announced at 3:14am ET this morning means the market is simultaneously processing a record-setting bank earnings release and a war escalation. The conference call at 9:30am ET is the more important document – the forward commentary will be the first institutional read of what the blockade means for credit markets, client positioning, and Q2 guidance.
3 – BTC’s weekend move lower from the range highs preceded the futures gap down by approximately twelve hours. This is consistent with documented instances of crypto markets providing early signals of institutional risk repositioning, as crypto markets trade continuously while equity futures have reduced liquidity on weekends. [Source: CoinDesk market analysis, public | Academic research on crypto as a leading indicator for equity risk-off, various publications, public]. Whether this represents genuine institutional signalling or coincidence is the ongoing research question. In this specific instance, price pushed lower off the range highs on the crypto chart on Saturday evening before the Islamabad talks collapse was confirmed publicly. The 6 money making patterns applied: range high rejection behaved as expected. The signal was there for those reading it.
Beep.
This Bot potentially hallucinates. Maybe. OK, Probably! Page 4 of the Hormuz Blockade Risk Assessment covers the formal ratification question. This is possibly the most important page 4 of the conflict. Nobody asked. The document is 7 pages and growing. Here we are.
In Other News…
Twenty-one hours of negotiations in Islamabad. JD Vance and Araghchi across a table. Pakistan in the room. They walked out empty-handed.
Iran rejected the nuclear commitment, the uranium surrender, and the Hormuz handover. Vance said they chose not to accept the terms. Trump responded at 3:14am ET. The Navy will blockade all ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz. Operations began at 10am ET.
Oil responded immediately. WTI +8% to $104.24. Brent $102.29. The WSJ reports military strikes are back on the table. The ceasefire lasted six days.
S&P futures fell 0.55%. The seven-session winning streak – the longest since October – was unwound on thin Asian liquidity before the New York open. The BB on both 30-minute charts pinched. The MACD-v extremes exited. Same configuration as last week. Different direction at the open.
Goldman Q1 reports before the bell. JPMorgan tomorrow. The Q1 numbers were compiled during the war. The guidance commentary will describe whatever this week produces.
Pakistan says it will attempt to restart talks. This information has been noted.
Percy Peanut has reviewed the blockade announcement. Percy is neutral on Navy blockades of international shipping lanes. This is consistent with all prior positions. The press-pass pigeon has voted to maintain the neutrality. Percy seconds the vote. The provisional positive position review is no longer pending – it has been filed under “paused indefinitely.”
Hazel’s Take:
Monday morning: Islamabad talks collapsed after 21 hours, Iran rejected all red lines, Trump ordered Navy blockade of Hormuz from 10am ET, WTI +8% to $104.24, futures -0.55%, seven winning sessions unwound overnight, Goldman Q1 before the bell, JPMorgan tomorrow, Dimon oil shock commentary most watched signal of the week, BB pinching on both 30-minute charts, MACD-v extremes exited, pop lower possible like 2 April, TnT technically still bullish, not chasing the gap. Friday’s poppers and tag n turns delivered. Not holding over the weekend was the right call. The yoyo continues. The VIX trendline was not written off. Noted.
Rumour Has It…
Hazel has updated the calendar. The RESOLVED (PROVISIONALLY) bracket has been removed. Tuesday 8pm ET has been relabelled. There is a new entry: “BLOCKADE – 10AM ET.” She has looked at it for a moment. Then filed it. Day 44. The espresso is functional and necessary. The fraction of a smile is still in storage. It may be there for a while.
Wallie has updated the chalkboard. The bull silhouette he drew last Friday has been outlined with a question mark. He did not erase it. He gave it a question mark. Below: “ISLAMABAD: 21 HOURS. EMPTY HANDS.” Below: “BLOCKADE: 10AM ET.” Below: “BB PINCHING. AGAIN.” In the very corner, very small: “VIX TRENDLINE: NOT DEAD. MY APOLOGIES.” He did not underline the apology. He is a professional.
Kash is seated. He sat down when the 3:14am ET post hit his alerts. He has been seated since. Stream title: “BLOCKADE MORNING – BB PINCH – WAIT FOR THE BREAK.” One timer: Goldman conference call 9:30am ET. He has accepted that timers are now a permanent fixture. He is considering making peace with this.
Mac has filed from Islamabad. He is still there. He was at the talks. He cannot say this officially. He was nearby. The dispatch arrived at 3:22am ET. Eight minutes after Trump’s post. Mac considers this responsive journalism. The flak jacket is back on. Return flight: not confirmed. The local breakfast, he notes, is still excellent.
Percy has archived the provisional positive position review. Filed under paused indefinitely. The press-pass pigeon seconded the vote to maintain neutrality. Percy considers this the correct institutional response to a Navy blockade. 44 days. The record continues.
Cachè-AI terminal in the corner. New document: Hormuz Blockade Risk Assessment, Week 2. 7 pages. Growing. Page 4 covers formal ratification questions. Nobody asked. Processing.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact:
The Strait of Hormuz is approximately 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, with two navigable shipping channels each roughly three kilometres wide separated by a two-kilometre buffer zone. Approximately 20-21 million barrels of oil pass through it per day under normal conditions — roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.
A naval blockade of the strait is the kind of event that oil market models have stress-tested but never had to price in real-time at this scale. For context: the strait is so narrow that a ship transiting it can see both the Iranian and Omani coastlines simultaneously.
Every tanker captain who has done the crossing knows this. Right now, no tanker captain is doing the crossing.
[Source: US Energy Information Administration — World Oil Transit Chokepoints, eia.gov, public |
US Naval Institute — Strait of Hormuz strategic analysis, usni.org, public]
Meme of the Day:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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