23 Trades. 17 Wins. FOMC Day. Triple Witching. The Poppers Didn’t Notice. | Weekly Debrief | 16-20 Mar 2026

6 losses from 23 trades. Most of them landed early in the session before the direction established itself. Every single day closed profitable.

 

 

Monday 16 Mar – The Overnight Relief That Lasted Less Than a Day

The week opened on a small overnight recovery following the previous week’s 2026 lows. It didn’t last.

SPX ran four trades. The first two were early bear reads that didn’t work – -$20 at -50% and -$17 at -31%. Once the session established its direction the poppers got paid: Trade 3 came back at 77.8% ROC, Trade 4 at 70.6% ROC. Comeback from the hole before lunch.

 

RUT ran three trades. Trade 1 was the loss – -$10. Trades 2 and 3 paid cleanly: $12 at 90% ROC and $12 at 67.7% ROC.

Seven trades. Four wins. Three losses. All early losses. All recovered.

SPX ROC: -50% / -31% / 77.8% / 70.6% RUT ROC: -49.8% / 90% / 67.7%

The pattern on Monday was the same one that repeated through the week: the early directional read was choppy, the session eventually committed, the later trades cleaned up.

 

 

Tuesday 17 Mar – Plain Sailing on SPX, Rocky Start on RUT

FOMC day minus one. The market was directional and SPX gave clean setups all session.

SPX ran five trades and won all five. VWAP Flop, Lazy VWAP, VWAP ReTest, BO ReTest, and the 3rd BO. Each one did its job. 66.6%, 90%, 64.3%, 67.7%, 69.7%. Five from five.

RUT had the rocky start. Trades 1 and 2 both hit the stop – -$5 at -53.8% and -$5 at -63.9%. Trade 3 came back and paid 90.1% ROC on a $10 move. The day ended green.

Eight trades. Six wins. Two losses. The two losses were RUT’s early reads – both contained, both covered by Trade 3’s 90%+ ROC.

SPX ROC: 66.6% / 90% / 64.3% / 67.7% / 69.7% RUT ROC: -53.8% / -63.9% / 90.1%

The RUT comeback is the story here. Two losses at the open then a 90% recovery. That is the system working as designed – the stop loss does its job on trades 1 and 2, trade 3 waits for the right setup, and the day ends in profit.

 

 

Wednesday 18 Mar – FOMC Day. 1 and Done. Both Paid.

J-PowPow had his pow wow. Markets were volatile, meandering, and genuinely unpredictable around the announcement. Not aggressively hunting entries was the right call.

SPX ran one trade before the session got messy. 1st BO off the open, $15 at 66.7% ROC. Done.

RUT ran one trade. Same approach – early 1st BO, $5 at 68.9% ROC. Done.

Two trades. Two wins. Zero losses. On FOMC day. The discipline of stepping back when conditions don’t favour multiple entries is as important as taking the entries when they do.

SPX ROC: 66.7% RUT ROC: 68.9%

 

 

Thursday 19 Mar – Bead ‘n Breakfast. Before Breakfast.

Powered down Thursday. Let the BnB that opened Wednesday do its thing.

SPX BnB: Opened Wednesday after the FOMC setup was visible. Closed Thursday morning. $85 on the index. 89.7% ROC.

One trade. One win. Zero losses. Done before breakfast while the South Pars headlines were landing.

SPX BnB ROC: 89.7%

 

 

Friday 20 Mar – Triple Witching. Yoyo Prices. Yeehaw.

Triple Witching Friday with the S&P sitting on its 200-day MA. Volume surged, prices moved violently in both directions. The system took what the session offered and didn’t chase the rest.

SPX ran three trades. Trade 1 paid 69.7% ROC on a $30 move. Trade 2 got stopped at -48.9% ROC, -$15. Trade 3 came back at 65.2% ROC, $15. Two from three.

RUT ran two trades off the 1st BOs. Both paid cleanly: $25 at 64.3% ROC and $10 at 62.9% ROC. Clean despite the Triple Witching mechanics.

Five trades. Four wins. One loss. On the most mechanically chaotic expiry day of the quarter.

SPX ROC: 69.7% / -48.9% / 65.2% RUT ROC: 64.3% / 62.9%

 

 

The Week’s Key Observation

The winning ROC band held between 62.9% and 90.1% across five sessions that had nothing in common with each other.

Monday was an overnight recovery that turned into a selloff. Tuesday was directional with clean setups on SPX and a rocky RUT open. Wednesday was FOMC day – one of the most volatile and unpredictable sessions of the year. Thursday was powered down. Friday was Triple Witching with the 200-day MA as the battleground.

Five completely different market environments. One consistent ROC range on the winning trades.

The losses on Monday, Tuesday, and Friday all followed the same pattern: early reads in choppy conditions before the session established direction. All contained. All covered by the wins that followed. None of them changed the day’s outcome.

The week produced 17 wins from 23 trades in a week that had a hawkish Fed dot plot, South Pars strikes, Brent at $109, a 2007/08-style grind, and Triple Witching Friday. The system processed all of it the same way: find the setup, take the trade, follow the process.

The broker statement doesn’t know what kind of week it was. It just sees the exit fills.

 

Week ROC Summary

• Winning trades ROC range: 62.9% – 90.1%
• Losing trades ROC range: -31% to -63.9%
• Win rate: 17 from 23 / 73.9%
• Profitable days: 5 from 5

Proof as always is on the charts with the broker statements.