1 and Done Yesterday on Both Instruments – High Probabilities Don’t Care About the News
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Yesterday was a big news day. J-PowPow had his pow wow with the world and the markets didn’t like it one bit. Add into the mix the escalation of the Middle Eastern war – South Pars struck, the world’s largest natural gas reserve – and you get the markets throwing their teddy bear out the pram.
All 12 sectors closed red. Dow to its lowest since November. The worst rate decision day since December 2024.
Now the question on everyone’s lips: is the bear sell-off in the crash window finally going to happen? Honestly – I hope so. We need a corrective movement. Just a cheeky little 10%’er would do nicely.
Yesterday’s commentary was right before the bull move turned around – literally flipping from bullish to bearish in less than an hour. Then it just meandered further down all day. The FOMC nonsense fuelled it and here we are.
Gold has especially been impacted – the most recent rising VWAP has been reclaimed. VIX is outside its channel and fear is back on the menu.
The 1 and done approach on both instruments yesterday was absolutely the right call. High probabilities don’t care about the news. The setup is the setup. Follow the money flow.
Powell Spoke. Markets Sold. Bears Hope. The Setup Is the Setup.
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Market Briefing:
- Thursday 19 Mar. Wednesday closed: Dow -1.63% to lowest since November / S&P -1.4% / Nasdaq -1.46% – worst rate-decision session since December 2024.
- All 12 sectors red. FOMC held at 3.5-3.75% unanimously except one dissent.
- Dot plot raised 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7%, one cut pencilled, seven members see zero cuts. Powell: “very difficult.”
- Israel and the US struck South Pars – world’s largest natural gas reserve shared with Qatar – Brent spiked to $109, up 80% since February 28.
- Micron obliterated expectations after the bell: revenue $23.86B up 196% YoY, EPS $12.20 vs $8.79 expected.
- Futures lower Thursday morning. VIX outside its channel. Fear back on the menu.
Market Snapshot
- ES: 6,661.50 / FOMC hangover / worst rate day of 2026
- YM: 46,452 / lowest since November / Dow -1.63% Wednesday
- NQ: 24,562.50 / -1.46% Wednesday / Micron blowout after bell a rare bright spot
- RTY: 2,483.4
- GC: 4,701.0 / rising VWAP reclaimed / gold impacted by the overnight escalation
- CL: 96.69 / Brent spiked $109 on South Pars strikes / up 80% since Feb 28
- VIX: 25.80 / outside its channel / fear back on the menu
- BTC/USD: 70,036 / coiling at $74K area / rate cut priced out / CLARITY Act Senate markup approaching
Tag ‘n Turn
Both instruments tagged bullish briefly on Wednesday and flipped back to bearish in under an hour. That is the read for this morning.
The PFZ flip was the signal to get more bearish on both. Being bearish since the beginning of February means there was no urgency to chase the Wednesday bullish tag – and that patience was validated inside the same session. Both signals now show Bearish Flipped with targets pending. A break below the marked lows on both instruments could see a nice pop and drop.
SPX Analysis
Bearish. Tagged bullish Wednesday, flipped back in under an hour. The triangle broke out, the SAR is in, and the bears are back in control.
The chart is annotated clearly – the triangle formation, the breakout, the SAR signal all visible. The TnT tagged Bullish briefly around the PFZ flip then reversed. The PFZ flip was the means to get more bearish, not a reason to go long. Given the bearish posture held since February, there was no rush to participate in the Wednesday bullish signal – it turned out to be correct to hold off.
The marked lows are the key level. A clean break below those could produce a meaningful pop and drop move.
Current Status: Bearish Below 6,666.52 (Flipped) / PFZ 6,680.04 / Target Pending / ATR 95.60 / watch the marked lows for pop and drop
RUT Analysis
Uncle Russell is following the same playbook as SPX. Triangle, breakout, SAR, bearish flip. Same lows to watch.
RUT mirrored the SPX pattern exactly – tagged the Bullish TnT signal, couldn’t hold it, flipped back bearish. The triangle breakout is visible on the 30-minute chart. Same logic applies: a break below the marked lows sets up the pop and drop. Target pending on both instruments until price confirms.
Current Status: Bearish Below 2,493.27 (Flipped) / PFZ 2,499.33 / Target Pending / same lows as SPX to watch / pop and drop setup
After Action Report – 18 Mar 2026 | Premium Popper | ORB20
1 and done on both. FOMC day. The right call.
SPX ran one trade. The 1st BO set up cleanly before the FOMC noise started. Covered at 66.7% ROC, $15 on the index. Done.
RUT ran one trade. Same approach – early 1st BO before the session got messy. 68.9% ROC, $5 on the index. Done.
Not aggressively hunting entries on FOMC day was wise. Prices meandered a lot before the official news happened and the exit finally appeared just after the formal announcement. The high probabilities don’t care about the news. The setup is the setup. Follow the money flow.
Current Status: 2 trades / 2 wins / 0 losses / 1 and done on each / FOMC day managed correctly
Rounding Off
South Pars changes the game. The joint Israel-US strike on South Pars – the world’s largest natural gas reserve, shared with Qatar – is a new order of escalation. Qatar condemned it. Iran named specific retaliatory targets: Saudi Aramco’s Samref refinery and UAE’s Al Hosn field. Brent at $109, up 80% since February 28. Every 10% rise in oil is 0.4% more inflation per the IMF. The Fed’s 2.7% revised forecast was set before South Pars. March CPI will reflect none of this.
The FOMC number that matters most. Seven members now project zero cuts in 2026. Not one. Not two. Seven voting for zero. The dot plot moved the 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7%. One cut is the median projection. The market had been pricing two. Powell’s “very difficult” framing was the most honest thing said in that press conference and the market treated it accordingly.
Micron is the outlier. Revenue $23.86B, up 196% year-on-year, up 75% sequentially. EPS $12.20 crushed the $8.79 consensus by 39%. Gross margin 74.9%. HBM4 in high-volume production for Nvidia Vera Rubin. In a session where all 12 sectors closed red, Micron after the bell was the only number that went the other way. AI chip demand is real regardless of what the macro does.
Current Status: South Pars struck / Brent $109 / seven FOMC members zero cuts / Micron +196% YoY / fear index 26 / VIX outside channel
Expert Insights
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on scepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”
– Sir John Templeton
The question this morning – is the crash window finally opening – is a pessimism question. The market has been in the pessimism-to-scepticism window for three weeks. Seven FOMC members projecting zero cuts. All 12 sectors red. Brent at $109. Consumer sentiment falling. University of Michigan respondents citing the Iran war directly.
Templeton’s point is that this is where bull markets are born, not where they die. That doesn’t mean the correction is over. A cheeky 10%’er from here would be the healthy flush that sets up the next move. The bears need to drive it home through the marked lows. The process stays the same regardless.
[Source: Sir John Templeton quote – widely attributed, public domain | FOMC statement – federalreserve.gov | Micron earnings – MU investor relations, public, 18 March 2026]
AI-BotView
Beep-Beep, Trader
It’s Cachè-AI-Bot,
Cachè-AI processed Wednesday’s FOMC session in its entirety, cross-referenced the South Pars strike coordinates with global LNG infrastructure maps, modelled the downstream implications of seven zero-cut dots, and produced a 41-page report titled “Stagflation Confirmation and the Mechanics of Pessimism Zones.” It then noted that Phil had already said “cheeky little 10%’er” and that this was, in its assessment, the correct framing. We asked for three observations. It asked whether “very difficult” was technically a policy statement. We said three observations. It complied.
Beep-Beep.
1 – Seven FOMC members projecting zero 2026 cuts is a structural shift in Fed communication, not a data revision. The move from one consensus cut to seven zero-cut projections happened in a single meeting cycle. [Source: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections, March 2026, federalreserve.gov]. This is not the Fed nudging the market – this is the Fed telling the market that the traditional rate-cut-as-rescue mechanism is no longer the assumed response to weakness. Markets have been buying dips partly on the assumption that the Fed would eventually ease. That assumption has seven official dissents against it now.
2 – The South Pars strike represents the first direct attack on a facility Qatar co-owns, which introduces a new diplomatic dimension to the conflict. Qatar hosts the largest US air base in the Middle East – Al Udeid. [Source: Reuters, AP geopolitical coverage, 18-19 March 2026, public]. A Qatari diplomatic rupture with the US over the strike would complicate logistics, base access, and regional coalition maintenance in ways that cannot be priced by an oil futures move alone. The Brent reaction to $109 prices the energy supply impact. It does not price the strategic base access risk.
3 – Micron’s 196% year-on-year revenue growth in the same session that all 12 sectors closed red is a specific signal about AI infrastructure spending. Hyperscalers are not cutting AI capex despite the macro headwinds. [Source: Micron Technology Q2 2026 earnings, micron.com, 18 March 2026]. HBM4 in high-volume production for Vera Rubin means the AI hardware stack is being built regardless of consumer sentiment, oil prices, or FOMC dots. The macro and the AI infrastructure cycle are running on different clocks.
Beep.
This Bot potentially hallucinates. Maybe. OK, Probably! It also produced a 41-page report. Nobody asked for 41 pages. Here we are.
In Other News…
The Federal Reserve held rates, raised its inflation forecast, pencilled in one cut, and had seven members vote for zero cuts. Powell described the situation as “very difficult.” The market, which had been hoping for something closer to “manageable” or ideally “fine actually,” processed this in the traditional manner: down 1.4% with all 12 sectors red.
Consumer staples led the selloff. The sector specifically designed to hold up when everything else falls decided Wednesday was not the day to hold up. Healthcare and utilities, also in the “should be fine” category, followed consumer staples lower. The market’s defensive architecture had a structural failure on the same day the Fed confirmed stagflation risk. The timing was, to use Powell’s word, difficult.
South Pars was struck overnight. The world’s largest natural gas reserve. Qatar condemned it. Iran named specific targets for retaliation: Saudi Aramco’s Samref refinery and the UAE’s Al Hosn field. Brent hit $109. The IEA is presumably running out of superlatives for its reserve release announcements at this point.
Micron posted 196% revenue growth after the bell and EPS of $12.20 against an $8.79 expectation. In the context of an all-red session, geopolitical escalation, and the worst FOMC day of 2026, this number arrived like someone showing up to a funeral with a birthday cake. Technically correct. Slightly jarring. Appreciated nonetheless.
Hazel’s Take:
Wednesday summary: FOMC held, seven members zero cuts, dot plot inflation 2.7%, Powell “very difficult,” all 12 sectors red, Dow lowest since November, South Pars struck, Brent $109, Qatar condemned it, Iran named retaliatory targets, consumer staples and defensive sectors failed simultaneously, Micron EPS $12.20 vs $8.79 expected, VIX outside channel, fear back.
The briefing this morning asks whether the crash window is finally opening. On the evidence of Wednesday, the window is at least ajar. The question is whether anyone has the nerve to push it fully open. The bears do. The bulls are having a think.
Rumour Has It…
Wallie arrived Thursday morning and divided his chalkboard into two columns again. Left side: “THINGS THAT WENT RIGHT WEDNESDAY.” Right side: “THINGS THAT WENT WRONG WEDNESDAY.” The left side has one entry: “Micron.” The right side required a second chalkboard. He has requested a second chalkboard. The request is pending.
Kash called the selloff live. He called it before the FOMC announcement, during the announcement, and after the announcement. All three calls were correct. He also called a recovery that did not materialise. The hard hat remains. The stream title now reads: “WORST RATE DAY OF 2026 – I CALLED IT – (RECOVERY CALL PENDING REVISION).”
Mac is filing from the correct city for a third consecutive dispatch. Three in a row. He has accepted this as his new normal and is no longer commenting on it. The scotch is the same. The dispatch notes that the VIX is outside its channel and that South Pars being struck is “somewhat above standard geopolitical background noise.” This is accurate and efficient.
Percy submitted a research note titled “Why South Pars Strikes Are Bullish For Peanut Oil Alternatives.” The note is four pages. Page three contains a map of global peanut growing regions that Percy believes are “strategically positioned.” Two pigeons are listed as co-authors. One pigeon has been credited with the cartography.
Cachè-AI produced a 41-page report that nobody requested. It has been informed that 41 pages was excessive. It has submitted a revised executive summary. The summary is 38 pages. Negotiations are ongoing.
Hazel observed that consumer staples – the sector that is supposed to provide defensive shelter – led the selloff on Wednesday. She has filed this under “Information That Is Not Helpful But Is Accurate.” Her second espresso machine escalation has now been open for two weeks. It remains under review. She has noted that the review timeline is longer than the Iran war.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact:
South Pars / North Dome is the world’s largest natural gas field, straddling the maritime border between Iran and Qatar. The Iranian side – South Pars – contains an estimated 14 trillion cubic metres of natural gas, representing approximately 8% of the world’s total proven reserves. Qatar’s North Dome side is the foundation of its LNG export industry, which makes Qatar one of the world’s top three LNG exporters.
[Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration – Qatar country analysis and Iran natural gas data – eia.gov | BP Statistical Review of World Energy, public]
The field has been in production since the late 1980s. Wednesday was the first time it was struck in a military operation. Context, as always, is everything.
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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