A tight narrow range on the 10 min, waiting for a break
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Crash cancelled again!
I suspect that we will see a narrow ranging day ahead of Friday NFP, which is not a huge leap to conclude given that we see this grind continuing, and something needs to shake this market loose and get a move going. The daily averages are exceedingly low, which just makes for a frustrating experience to live through.
Right then, let’s get into the charts.
Market Snapshot
The VIX has withdrawn its position of yesterday, and has asked that no significance be attached to either the position or the withdrawal.
- SPX 7,666.60, up 35.13 (0.46%). A tight narrow range on the 10 min. Full read below.
- ES 7,672.50, up 3.25 (0.04%). No read today.
- NazQuack (NQ) 29,160.50. No read today.
- Uncle Dow (YM) 53,147, up 11 (0.02%). No read today.
- Uncle Russ (RTY) 2,955.2, down 2.8 (0.09%). No read today.
- Gold 4,467.2, up 32.9 (0.74%). No read today.
- Crude (CL) 90.02, down 0.61 (0.67%). No read today.
- BTC 77,775.18. No read today.
VIX 15.19, down 1.14 (6.98%).
VIX has firmly retreated, like a hand off a hot pan.
SPX – Dropping to the 10 min for the Tag n Turn swings for a change.
Dropping to SPX 10 min for the Tag n Turn swings for a change, we can see that there is a tight narrow range. It would typically be worth waiting for a breakout in either direction. The PnF has that range marked, with the support level at 7,630 and the resistance level at 7,690.
The system is currently bearish, so a bear bias is expected at this stage.
ADD is also at a bullish extreme, suggesting a bear bias as the line of least resistance.
A bear bias as the line of least resistance.
September Seasonality – Pondering the first half of the month, or the second.
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, September’s record going back to 1950 is a decidedly bearish one, and the weakness builds through the month rather than arriving at the start. Across all years the major averages have tended to finish somewhere around 0.6% to 0.8% lower, with most of the damage after the midpoint.
Midterm years are worse at the back end. The S&P and the Dow have actually held up better than their longer run pattern through roughly the first ten to twelve trading days, and then handed it back quickly. Into the final sessions, midterm NASDAQ and Russell 1000 have finished nearer 1.6% and 1.8% lower.
And we are once again pondering if there will be a move of significance in the first half of the month, or the second half of the month.
The data suggests a bear move. I’m in no doubt it’s going to happen. The fly in the ointment is the when and how much.
I’m in no doubt it’s going to happen.
Wall of Wins
Despite the annoyance of the markets, the Premium Poppers once again pulled some premiums in, and the AntiVestor community again scooped a bag full. Well done all.
- Scott K. Took the SPX 1st BO this morning. Closed early for a 30% win.
- Bill B. Took the SPX 1st BO this morning. Closed for a 50% win.
- Bill B. Took the RUT 1st BO this morning. Closed early for a 15% win.
- Bill B. Took RUT VWAP. Closed for a 50% win.
- ehvpsd. 50% wins on both SPX and RUT this morning.
Meme of the Day:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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