The VIX jumps 12.49%, so let’s see 16 hold
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
It’s a new morn and a new week, and the markets are gapping down already, 50ish points in the premarket, and holding those lows, suggesting further bearish moves. My confirmation bias is once again roaring and the weekend bears are paying nicely.
Generally speaking I could not be happier. Unless there was a 100+ move lower, but that is besides the point. If you say something for long enough it might come true lol.
Seriously though, a one day move, of which we have seen many bear possibilities this month and last month come and go. It’s that elusive beast of 10% in 10 to 15 days that I’m looking for.
The STA, Stock Trader’s Almanac, is circling back at me for a timing situation of the seasonality combined with mid terms, and the dozen other things I’ve been banging on about for what seems like far too long again. But then I’m allowed to, once a year, as seasonality dictates.
See the bear be the bear. Which I’m sure you remember from Caddyshack… or was that ball? Anyways…
Right then, let’s get into the charts.
Market Snapshot
The VIX has risen 12.49% and wishes it to be known that it had raised concerns previously.
- ES 7,605.75, down 55.00 (0.72%). Gapping down and holding those lows.
- Uncle Dow (YM) 52,459, down 117 (0.22%). Lower with it.
- Uncle Russ (RTY) 2,892.6, down 12.1 (0.42%). Firmly in bear mode. Full read below.
- BTC 77,703.48, up 903.63 (1.18%). Still grinding a range. Full read below.
- Crude (CL) 103.54, up 3.55 (3.55%). No read today.
- Gold 4,351.4, down 38.6 (0.88%). No read today.
- NazQuack (NQ) 28,891.50.
Looking at the snap overview, Nasdaq is leading the bear charge lower, given that AI was effectively given a clobbering over the weekend by basically AI tech leaders and owners alike, saying restraints are needed to slow things down before we see some sort of Terminator uprising.
VIX 17.83, up 1.98 (12.49%).
The VIX is aligning with the gap. Let’s see if we can see 16 hold for more than 2 days this time…
SPX – Still sticking with the clear chart.
Looking at the descending channel we have been observing for a while, and with the markets gapping lower on the weekend news, this will be the first time that price has not reached the upper boundary level before turning lower.
The big question is, will the bear move see any follow through movement, or will this be a slightly wider double bottom?
I am of course in favour of the bear scenario. I’ll keep things simple and use 7,600 as my bull bear over under.
7,600 as my bull bear over under.
RUT – Simple to assess.
We are firmly in bear mode, the system is bearish, and there’s loads of free space below, down to 2,800.
Firmly in bear mode.
Crypto, BTC – Grinds a range, still.
I’ve updated the chart slightly, marking off bear breakout and bull breakout zones.
I’d prefer the bear breakout as I’m already bearish, but I am not married to it in the same way that I am with the stock indexes.
A bull break will be a nice push above the larger range we have previously noted. The bear break continues the already bearish as resistance narrative previously discussed.
Not married to it, unlike the indexes.
Wall of Wins
A HUGE shout out to James, who continues to crush the Premium Popper trading and is steadily growing his account. Awesome work.
- James D. Posted his account for the week just gone. A small account trading only one option, and he calls that a win. Well ding fecking dong.
- James D. Also a RUT Premium Popper win.
- Scott K. An interesting Friday. Took the RUT bear BO1 for a $2 credit with the short leg at 2,910, then removed the take profit and let it expire for a full win. Also took the SPX Bull BO1. Being out for most of the day, put on a transformer that gave a worst case of a 5 cent credit to cover commissions. It ended up inside the profit tent for approximately a $200 per contract win.
Scott also had an excellent finish to the week while doing other things, and landed a nice transformed risk free bullseye inside the profit tent for a $200 bonus win. Boom.
Awesome work the both of you.
Fun Fact:
The fear gauge’s very first print looked a lot like this morning Thirty-six years on, it sits six tenths of a point from where it started
The volatility index arrived in 1993 and was back-calculated to January 1990. The oldest value in the official daily series, dated 2 January 1990, reads 17.24. It trades 17.83 this morning. Three and a half decades of innovation, and the fear gauge has travelled six tenths of a point.
Meme of the Day:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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