VIX Above 16 Is The Signal, And It Is Not There Yet

Normal movement resumed, all of it before anyone was awake.

The stock indexes have resumed a normal range of movement. They have elected to conduct all of it before anyone is awake.

I’d also say we saw another big day of movement yesterday, but the stock indexes are for the moment just expanding back into a normal range of movement, with most of that movement frustratingly happening in the premarket trading, which we see as gaps on the charts. Such is the way of things.

• ES 7,686.50, +0.24%. The overnight rally, see below.
• YM 53,051, +0.37%. Bouncing with the rest.
• NQ 29,441.50. Still the laggard.
• RTY 3,018.0, +0.64%. Best of the four this morning.
• GC 4,654.1, +1.73%. Off to a new high.
• CL 86.17, -0.05%. Building the next bar, see below.
• ETH/BTC 0.03079, -3.39%. Giving some of the monster bar back.

VIX – 16 is the line. We are not there yet.

VIX above 16, the swing high on the daily, will signal to me that another bear push is starting in earnest. Sat at 15.74 this morning, so not yet.

Despite the current premarket trends, sadly not a lot to play with so far as I’m typing this. The VIX is holding its elevated levels, so once again I am inferring that we might gap higher in a small way in the regular session and then continue the sell off.

With it being Friday I would also assume that the trend is in for the week, and something weird and funky would have to tweet, I mean happen.

16 on the VIX, and the bear push starts in earnest.

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SPX – Below 7700 and the bear case stands. Above it, everything gets reassessed.

The SPX and RUT Tag n Turn charts remain bearish. There is a range breakout target on SPX, so as long as prices stay below and outside the range lows I would not be concerned about the overnight rally.

A move back in the range above 7700 and all bear bets are reassessed. Otherwise I will remain bearish to the breakout target.

Below 7700, bearish to target. Above it, back to the drawing board.

Crude Oil – Another narrow bar, and at this point it is a habit.

Crude is building another narrow bar, which at this point is less a pattern than a habit, and habits are considerably easier to trade than patterns.

Crude oil popped higher from the morning analysis quite nicely and it is looking like we may be watching another narrow ranging bar develop again today.

It will be fun to see if this is an overnight setup for some follow through to yesterday’s call, or if it’s the setup for Monday’s trading, or a weekend pump.

Could be fun.

Called it, took it, and here comes another one.

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Premium Poppers – Plenty of them, and they get a piece of their own.

Yesterday’s trades and Premium Poppers were a plenty, so I will do a separate more detailed debriefing on SPX, RUT, ETH/BTC and CL trades taken yesterday.

This should be on the Wall of Wins along with the AntiVestor member winners trophies late today.

A whole day’s worth, and it needs more room than this.

Fun Fact

Since we’re after a cherry on the top today.

The cherry on top has a birthday. On Sunday 3 April 1892, at Platt and Colt’s soda fountain in Ithaca, vanilla ice cream was served with cherry syrup and a candied cherry, and the two men present decided to call it a “Cherry Sunday” in honour of the day it was created. The first advertisement ran in the Ithaca Daily Journal on 5 April 1892.

The spelling is the interesting part. Evanston, Illinois had passed a law in 1890 prohibiting the sale of soda water on Sundays, and one of the competing origin stories has the name respelled to keep the sabbath crowd happy.

So the cherry on top may well be the world’s most delicious compliance workaround.

Let’s see if we can’t PopPop a cherry on the top of the trading week to finish Friday strong.