S&P 500 Bollinger Bands Compressing, VIX Below 18, the Crude Oil Bull Trade to $104.50 and Bitcoin’s 84.2k Target

In a world where direction lasts a day, one market changes it. Again.

Starring a bull, a bear, and a Bollinger Band going nowhere.

Once again the viewpoint gets flipped and directions change 180 on a dime, with much wheel spinning smoke, sound effects, as if it’s a trailer for the new Fast & Furious movie. Bulls ‘n Bears: Wall Street Drift.

Scroll down for the SPX swings that ain’t swinging anywhere, crude’s $104.50 target and why we don’t need a stop loss, Bitcoin’s adjusted target, and Premium Poppers as fast and furious as you could expect.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures 7,772.50 (-0.16%). Under the NATHs line, inside the rising channel.
• Uncle Dow futures 52,747 (-0.17%). Back up to the falling averages.
• NazQuack futures 29,834 (+0.53%). Off the NATHs, inside the channel.
• Uncle Russ futures 2,788.6 (-0.13%). Still heavy, well under the NATHs.
• Gold 4,147.7 (+0.13%). Drifting at the lows.
• VIX 17.36. Popped back below 18 like a turtle in full retreat. It still remains elevated, which is good for the day’s range of movements mentioned yesterday, and potentially can mean we see faster intraday moves for those Premium Poppers.
• Crude Oil 99.27 (+1.11%). Still bullish.
• Bitcoin 83,324.94 (+0.48%). Pushing slowly higher.

SPX – Bear hopes and dreams, wheel spinning past the chequered flag.

SPX remains bullish despite my bear hopes and dreams wheel spinning past the chequered flag, although when you look at the actual price moves on the 30 min chart for the swings, price ain’t really swinging anywhere¹ and the Bollinger Bands are compressing once again. Not officially in a new compression range, but getting close.

¹ It’s a hammock now.

Getting close.

Crude Oil – Peace, no war, no we don’t know!

Crude took a handbrake turn down to the range lows and kept the engine running.

Crude oil remains bullish, and given the peace, no war, no we don’t know! news in the Middle East, prices did spike lower to the rising range lows again, and with price still outside the larger range the bull trade is still on the table with the same $104.50 target.

Or, as they nearly said at the end of Back to the Future:

“Stops! Where we’re going, we don’t need stop losses!”

It also highlights the thing I was talking about on yesterday’s video, that with options income trades we don’t need a stop loss in the traditional sense, as it’s all built in, so this bull swing still turns out, or back, into a profitable trade, with new opportunities presenting themselves.

I spoke a little about this, I think yesterday, on the video version, talking about the advantages of options spreads being better than more traditional trading, as we get paid if there is sideways, and also there is a built in stop loss, so you can more easily sit through wild price swings without being stopped out.

It’s all built in.

Bitcoin – Changed little.

Bitcoin turned up to the street race on a mobility scooter. The track then moved the finish line $600 closer.

Bitcoin has changed little, pushing slowly higher, and with the descending channel also pushing lower it does mean the upside target is adjusted slightly from 84.8k to 84.2k. Just the way things are. And of course we can assess for the break as and when, or if, that happens. Bear trigger is still below 80k.

Just the way things are.

Premium Poppers & Wall of Wins – Trade on, pop pop, premium collected.

Yesterday’s Premium Poppers were as fast and furious as you could expect. Trade on, pop pop, premium collected. Well done traders, the AntiVestor crew pulling that premium out again.

No chart from me, all kudos to the team.

No stop losses were used in the making of this film.

The crew:

• Don E.: “Closed RUT BO1 for 50% and SPX BO1 for 45% – love days when they close out fast. Will look to see what LPs show.”
• James D.: “Took the RUT and SPX PP and set them to 80 c cashed out – could have set the premium higher but a win is a win!”
• Don E.: “And… closed RUT LP BO for 45% – good way to bounce back after yesterday’s erratic price action (and losses).”
• Me: “straight up – well done team”
• Scott K.: “Transformed RUT BO1 (short at 2745)…40% locked in.”
• Chris: “Had wins on BO1 on both RUT and SPX. Gave it all away and more on SPX BO3”

Well done traders.