Markets tanked, Iran talked peace, markets pumped, and my head came clean off. VIX played peekaboo with 16, Gold barely clung on, and Bitcoin, of all things, turned out to be the voice of sanity. Here’s how my SPX and RUT bear swings are locked, and what BTC needs for the next add-in.
...A wire report of US-Iran talks on reopening Hormuz took 3.59% out of crude inside an hour and turned the equity session around. The bond market, settling later with the same information, closed at the month’s highest yield. We try to work out which one was right.
...A report of US-Iran talks on reopening Hormuz took 3.59% out of November crude inside an hour. The Treasury curve, marked later the same afternoon, closed at 5.53%, the highest of the month. One of them is wrong.
...We banged the bear drum for THE week, and right on cue the market turned on a dime. SPX’s bull setup looks set to void on a 40 point gap, RUT has flip flopped back to the bear, Bitcoin is almost behaving, and everything on the bear side of the Premium Poppers came home to papa.
...A survey of purchasing managers moved every Treasury tenor past two years and took the average stock apart, whilst the index recorded a polite decline. Two instruments, one session, opposite accounts.
...The S&P lost three quarters of one percent and the number told you almost nothing. Underneath it, four NYSE stocks fell for every one that rose, the weakest breadth in thirty-two sessions.
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