FOMC today – hold 95%+ priced – dot plot drops simultaneously at 2pm – Powell 2:30pm – June cut odds collapsed from 56% to 23% – every word matters
Price attempting to push higher off those lows – VIX back inside its channel – fear calming – still inside the larger range though
TnT bear signals on both SPX and RUT could flip with a push above the PFZ levels – overnight futures showing rallies but cash flagging a bear setup – direction confirmed at the open
PPI drops at 8:30am ET before all of this – any upside hardens the stagflation case and complicates Powell immediately

Monday’s broad recovery across all 11 sectors is already gone – Iran struck a UAE gas field overnight and Brent reloaded back above $100
SPX and RUT both cleaner on 30-period BBs – declining VWAP holding as ceiling on both – RUT fired a fresh bear setup and skipped the bull entirely
The late session spike yesterday was a fake tariff pause rumour – White House called it “fake news” – markets gave back everything and then some
FOMC today and Wednesday – hold is 95% priced – dot plot and Powell’s every word on Wednesday are the actual trade

Overnight futures up slightly – bulls and bears can battle this one out – anyone’s game at the open
GEX all negative with key levels at 6,700 and 6,600 – gap up to 6,650 and trade down to 6,600 fits the current read
Nvidia GTC today, Jensen Huang keynotes at 2pm ET – markets need a tech catalyst and today delivers one
FOMC Wednesday is the real pivot – dot plot revision matters more than the hold itself

Friday the 13th delivered early – Brent above $100, 2026 lows hit Thursday, bears back in full control of both SPX and RUT
VIX held the range highs all week – that was the signal that the mid-week recovery wasn’t going to stick
PCE drops at 08:30 ET today – headline 2.7% expected, core near 3%, Fed meets March 17-18, Goldman now says September for the first cut
BTC breaking out of its range on the hourly – 6MMPs pattern #5 in play, targets marked, grinding sideways overall but the setup is there