The Fed raises rates this afternoon to fix a bond market that has already fixed its own price. Tuesday’s 20-year sale says the buyers are the problem now.
...The index futures rolled overnight, so anyone looking at a continuous contract this morning saw a huge gap up that never happened. The ETF extended hours tell the real story, which is a market selling off. Inside: SPX filling the gap on the rally and likely opening outside the range, RUT dropping and pausing with the next leg starting overnight, Bitcoin eyeing a range low break, and a VIX holding above 16 for a third day.
...The ten-year reached 5.041% this morning, the highest since 2007, whilst the policy rate sits at 3.50%. We try to work out which of the two is actually steering the ship.
...The ten-year hit 5.041% this morning, its highest since 2007, whilst the policy rate sits at 3.50%. The Fed decides Wednesday. The bond market decided last week.
...New week, markets gapping down 50ish in the premarket and holding the lows, and the Nasdaq out in front of the charge after AI got a clobbering over the weekend from the AI people themselves. Inside: the first time price has not reached the upper channel boundary before turning lower, a VIX up 12.49%, free space below RUT all the way to 2,800, and Bitcoin’s bear and bull zones now marked up.
...Crude cleared $100 and the ten-year neared 5%, and neither moved the growth complex like a weekend essay did. We work out what that 1.47 point gap between the two stock indices is actually pricing.
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