The TACO returned Monday – “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” – Iran denied any talks existed – markets ripped then consolidated
Did nothing Monday and came out the other side with the TnT bearish again – no harm no foul – if in doubt, do nowt
Both SPX and RUT have fresh bearish setups on 30 min / 30 periods – back to the business at hand
5-day clock expires Saturday – the threat machine can reload for the weekend – we’ve seen this movie before
The bear is back on – price finally challenging the range held since last September/October – the next breakout and down is in play
Trump’s Hormuz ultimatum expires tonight at 7:44pm ET – Tehran’s response: “strike electricity, we strike electricity” – no compliance signals anywhere
SPX swings remain bearish – RUT Friday bull TnT was on the last bar, impossible to execute – gap down today keeps the bear case intact
SpotGamma: $1.4 trillion in delta notional expired Friday, the market’s shock absorber is gone, realised vol has room to catch up with implied
13 traders on the wall – FOMC day, South Pars strikes, Triple Witching Friday – the system kept working
Mary doubled her position on instinct, went against the rules, and banked 100% ROC – then took full responsibility for the decision
Andy D. had a rough start, came back Wednesday through Friday with 98% / 89% / 97% / 91% ROC in succession
Richard H. turned a losing week profitable on Friday alone – RUT then SPX, both 50% ROC, done by lunch
23 trades across 5 sessions – 17 wins, 6 losses – profitable every single day including FOMC day and Triple Witching Friday
The week included a hawkish Fed, South Pars strikes, Brent at $109, and a 2007/08-style grind – the system noticed none of it
Tuesday’s SPX ran 5 from 5 clean wins – Wednesday’s FOMC day produced 1 and done on both instruments – both paid
Winning ROC held between 62.9% and 90.1% across five completely different macro sessions
Just like that, the bear scare is off the table – sideways movement, tumbleweed, and fine – let’s be bullish
This is 2007/08 all over again – reality being ignored while the market grinds – until one day it isn’t
Triple Witching today – volume surges, swings get violent, every move gets amplified – sloppy and fun
SPX and RUT both bullish again on TnT with ADD at extreme lows and MACDv at extremes – the setup for a push higher is there
FOMC held, dot plot raised inflation to 2.7%, one cut pencilled, seven members see zero cuts – markets threw the teddy out the pram
South Pars struck overnight – world’s largest natural gas reserve – Brent spiked to $109, up 80% since February 28
Both SPX and RUT tagged bullish briefly on Wednesday then flipped back bearish in under an hour – the PFZ flip was the entry signal
1 and done on both instruments – not aggressively hunting entries on FOMC day was the right call – the setup is the setup