The gap is closed and the system is still technically bearish, with the overnight futures already breaking the Asian session lows. Crude is developing the breakout called yesterday and ETH/BTC hit its 0.0320 target on a monster bar. Inside: the risk free day built before the open, and the 1 small position that buggered up the lower profit level.
...A 2bn dollar change to a buyback schedule moved the 30-year further than a hawkish set of Fed minutes did. We try to work out what that says about who prices long money now.
...The Fed’s July minutes showed several officials wanting an immediate hike. Yields fell, the dollar hit a three-month low and bitcoin cleared 70,000 dollars. The Treasury had changed an operation size.
...SPX has pushed back into the prior range and left the breakout unconfirmed, with most of the move from range high to range low done in the gap lower. The premarket has nudged below the prior day’s lows, which means continuation 80% of the time. Inside: the crude oil narrow bar that has popped 10 times in 12, and why the profit tents only locked 2 minutes before the bell.
...Korea’s benchmark fell 5.5% overnight and the S&P 500 future did not move. The long bond is quietly setting the price of everything, and only one of those two markets appears to have noticed.
...Korea’s benchmark shed 5.5% overnight and S&P futures moved a quarter of a point. The year’s most crowded trade is unwinding one time zone at a time, and America has decided that is somebody else’s problem.
...Prices are falling off at last and the other indexes have joined Uncle Dow, with the VIX clue from yesterday holding well. Stocks above the 20 period moving average broke 63% and closed below 60%. Inside: the break in setup you will never find in a TA book, and why 45% is the level that starts the bear move.
...Monday brought a factory beat and a fourteenfold jump in AI revenue, and the 30-year still went to 5.31%. We try to work out what is pricing duration now, because everything else is priced off it.
...The 30-year hit 5.31%, its highest since 2007, on the best news day the bulls have had in a fortnight. Good data no longer buys equities and bad data no longer buys bonds.
...Uncle Russ is making new ground in the pre market while sleepy Uncle Dow leads the bear charge on its own, and the VIX has popped 4.84% on almost no overnight movement. Inside: why the SPX compression area is now angled rather than flat, the ETH/BTC target lifted to 0.0305, and Friday’s poppers.
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