The markets go up and the markets go down. It is when they do it to extremes with nothing fundamentally changing that you get price extremes, and then a course correction post news. Buy the rumour, sell the news. So is this recent rally hot wind and thin air, a Fugazi? We find out in a few hours, and no doubt you already have.
...Wednesday’s jobs miss moved the two-year almost nothing. Thursday, a committee reading a document moved it seven basis points. We try to work out what the front end is actually listening to.
...A jobs miss moved the front end nothing. A draft nobody has voted on moved it seven basis points. Payrolls land at 08:30 into a curve that has just told you what it actually reads.
...The VIX pushed higher then spiked higher, despite the overnight and morning moves up. Gold is breaking out like it means it. Then the turn came. Is this the top? A blow off top? I remain a nervous bull, I am staying sidelined on the swings, and I am taking the day trades instead. Plus crude’s sell the rally and a Popper day that started with a loss.
...New York priced Wednesday’s news at 0.83% and set a record. Seoul priced the same news at 4.59% and suspended trading. Only one of them can be right.
...The Nasdaq fell 0.83% and New York barely noticed. Thirteen hours later Seoul suspended programme trading over the same number. Someone is mispricing this, and it is not both of them.
...The BOFF BOOM move might reach Mars before Elon does. But the VIX is staying elevated and pumping a little higher on the same days SPX is printing new highs, and that is not how it is supposed to go. Bull trap, blow off top thingy, or just a stubborn tape? Plus a simpler transformer that landed both profit tents.
...The July FOMC moved September hike pricing three points. A Treasury Secretary’s unsigned remark moved it ten. ADP prints this morning and payrolls land Friday.
...September hike pricing fell ten points on one unsigned sentence about a waterway. The S&P booked a record. Then two companies beat everything and lost eight percent each.
...Yesterday I said gap higher, trade lower. The setups said go bullish. Guess which one got traded, and guess which one paid. Plus ES prints an overnight NATH, crude reacts off the same zone again, and ETH/BTC has a bigger bear move on offer below 0.0287.
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