Once again the move was done overnight. SPX is bullish at the range lows, VIX is down to mild hysteria, crude eyes $104.50 and the sentiment charts are keeping me bullish for the moment.
...Semiconductors fell 6.79% and the Dow closed higher. Six of eleven sectors rose in the same session and high yield rose 0.16%. On published durations, high yield captured 38.75% of what the Treasury move implies and investment grade captured more than all of it.
...Thursday’s Nasdaq 100 fell 2.90% and the Dow closed 0.02% higher. Semiconductors took 6.79%, staples added 3.31%, the long Treasury fund rose 1.87% on double volume and high yield moved 0.16%. Six of eleven sectors finished up. Sixty per cent of the index fall had happened before the bell and the other 40.0% has no name on it.
...The overnight moves are nudging -1% and NazQuack is going quackers at nearly -2%. We’ve seen this a dozen times this month, so opinions aside, trade the setups: SPX back at the prior turning points, crude bullish off range lows, and Bitcoin playing ping pong.
...Wednesday priced calm on both volatility measures. Thursday’s premarket has equity volatility 10.6% higher, December Nasdaq futures 1.9% lower and Brent 2.9% dearer. We work out which session carries the information, and what 44 sessions say about whether a gap this steep survives the open.
...Wednesday’s Nasdaq 100 closed 1.1% higher and both volatility measures fell. By 09:15 UTC equity volatility was 10.6% higher, December Nasdaq futures 1.9% lower and Brent 2.9% dearer. The implied opening gap is the steepest of the last 44 sessions, nothing that steep has fully reversed, and the one explanation on offer turned up after the move was done.
...Directions flipped 180 on a dime again, with much wheel spinning smoke, but SPX price ain’t really swinging anywhere. Crude spiked to the range lows and the bull trade is still on, Bitcoin’s target adjusts to 84.2k, and the Premium Poppers were as fast and furious as you could expect.
...On Tuesday the Nasdaq counted 3,370 winners and 1,483 losers, beat down volume 3.56207 to one, and closed 6.0693 points lower. Both numbers are measured. Only one of them is cap-weighted, and this book names no cause for the session’s three loudest moves.
...Hot inflation, oil near $100, a 10-year yield above 5% and the market still won’t crack. Here’s what a market that refuses to fall is really telling you, why the “overdue correction” is a myth, and what I watch for when the floor finally gives way.
...VIX won’t retreat below 16, the Dow and the Russell won’t join the bull party, and with no big news this week it’s a coin toss. Here’s the S&P’s over under line for the bull bear moves, crude’s breakout target, and a nail-biting butterfly that paid by the final bell.
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