My direction call was right for exactly 1 day. The S&P and Naz are nudging off the range lows, the uncles are stalling, VIX has come down from its espresso high, and the SPX point and figure chart needs 7720 before the bull breakout switch flips.
...The S&P 500 rose 0.70% on a session in which 55.29% of NYSE volume traded in falling shares, 736 million of them against Friday’s 737 million on a down day. The index and the tape are a different list of companies, and the question is which one described Monday.
...The S&P 500 rose 0.70% on Monday while 55.29% of NYSE volume traded in falling shares, 736 million of them against Friday’s 737 million on a down day. New lows beat new highs on both exchanges, 70% of the index gain has no named cause, the 6-month bill rose and the 20-year fell before Wednesday’s statement.
...Carpet bombing declared and withdrawn inside 45 minutes, a VIX that can’t get through 20, and the question the community asked me over the weekend: how do you trade a market that swings like this when you haven’t got time to watch it? Trade through, or go up a timeframe. The new strategy fired 3 bullish setups on the daily chart on Friday. Crude is almost at the 104.50 bull target, Bitcoin is turning off the channel lows again.
...December WTI settled 103.27, up 3.82%, and every Treasury tenor rose or held, the 2-year by 4 basis points and the 20-year by 5, with the 2s10s spread unchanged at 31. Bond volatility fell 3.30%. A level move, not a re-pricing of the committee.
...Friday the Dow fell 653 points and the Nasdaq 100 fell 1, one session after the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.90% and the Dow held. Three quarters of the Dow’s fall has no named cause, two phone companies lost 8% on a reported conversation, December WTI settled 103.27, and every Treasury tenor rose or held.
...Once again the move was done overnight. SPX is bullish at the range lows, VIX is down to mild hysteria, crude eyes $104.50 and the sentiment charts are keeping me bullish for the moment.
...Semiconductors fell 6.79% and the Dow closed higher. Six of eleven sectors rose in the same session and high yield rose 0.16%. On published durations, high yield captured 38.75% of what the Treasury move implies and investment grade captured more than all of it.
...Thursday’s Nasdaq 100 fell 2.90% and the Dow closed 0.02% higher. Semiconductors took 6.79%, staples added 3.31%, the long Treasury fund rose 1.87% on double volume and high yield moved 0.16%. Six of eleven sectors finished up. Sixty per cent of the index fall had happened before the bell and the other 40.0% has no name on it.
...The overnight moves are nudging -1% and NazQuack is going quackers at nearly -2%. We’ve seen this a dozen times this month, so opinions aside, trade the setups: SPX back at the prior turning points, crude bullish off range lows, and Bitcoin playing ping pong.
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