Crude, ETH/BTC twice, RUT and SPX. Four instruments, one day, and by the close every single credit spread had been transformed into a fly.
...The VIX needs to clear 16, the swing high on the daily, before I call another bear push started in earnest, and it is sat at 15.74. Meanwhile the Asian range break, retest and run delivered again in the premarket and SPX stays bearish to the breakout target while price holds below 7700. Inside: the crude narrow bar that has become a habit, and a debrief on 4 instruments landing later today.
...The Treasury intervened, the long bond round-tripped, equities lost 700 points and bitcoin added 20%. The 2-year printed 4.19% four sessions running. We try to work out what that silence means.
...The 30-year moved 12 basis points in two days. The Dow lost 700 points. Bitcoin added 20%. The 2-year constant maturity printed 4.19% four sessions running and did not blink.
...The gap is closed and the system is still technically bearish, with the overnight futures already breaking the Asian session lows. Crude is developing the breakout called yesterday and ETH/BTC hit its 0.0320 target on a monster bar. Inside: the risk free day built before the open, and the 1 small position that buggered up the lower profit level.
...A 2bn dollar change to a buyback schedule moved the 30-year further than a hawkish set of Fed minutes did. We try to work out what that says about who prices long money now.
...The Fed’s July minutes showed several officials wanting an immediate hike. Yields fell, the dollar hit a three-month low and bitcoin cleared 70,000 dollars. The Treasury had changed an operation size.
...SPX has pushed back into the prior range and left the breakout unconfirmed, with most of the move from range high to range low done in the gap lower. The premarket has nudged below the prior day’s lows, which means continuation 80% of the time. Inside: the crude oil narrow bar that has popped 10 times in 12, and why the profit tents only locked 2 minutes before the bell.
...Korea’s benchmark fell 5.5% overnight and the S&P 500 future did not move. The long bond is quietly setting the price of everything, and only one of those two markets appears to have noticed.
...Korea’s benchmark shed 5.5% overnight and S&P futures moved a quarter of a point. The year’s most crowded trade is unwinding one time zone at a time, and America has decided that is somebody else’s problem.
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