SPX has followed a familiar pattern the last two weeks – a Monday gap down followed by a bearish move into the weekend.
With Super Bowl Sunday ahead, markets are mirroring the big game – will bears strike again, or do we see a surprise play?
Friday’s bearish setup was a V-shaped entry + bearish pulse bar, eerily similar to the last two Fridays.
Given this pattern, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another Monday pop ‘n drop.
The only question is – what will be the tipping point?
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...The bullish rally continues, with SPX pushing from range lows to range highs.
The NFP report is set to drop before the open – a key market-moving event that could decide whether we smash through 6100 or bounce off resistance.
Some whipsaw action is likely before things settle, but the existing bullish move should at least get a final push toward targets.
For now, we wait – but this is the good kind of waiting.
...Not every trade can be a winner, and this one was a dud. Despite a tiny movement in the right direction, the strike selection was too deep in the money, leaving no opportunity to manage or roll the trade.
The trade setup:
✅ $15.25 credit received on a $30 wide broken wing butterfly
❌ Closed at max loss of $30, a -96.7% hit
With no break-even exit or rolling opportunity, the only move was to let it expire and take the loss. That’s trading – you take the wins and the lessons.
...SPX continues to climb, pushing through the middle of the range, with 6100-6120 as the next profit target.
Once we reach it, I’ll assess for a Tag ‘n Turn reversal, looking for bearish pulse bars or a V-shaped reversal. Until then, it’s a waiting game – either for profits to roll in or for hedge triggers to flip.
Meanwhile, I’m off on a wild adventure to the zoo, keeping an eye on the markets (and maybe a few flamingos) from afar.
...SPX has been stuck in a sideways range, with Monday’s Tag ‘n Turn setup landing at the range low.
The next target is 6100, where we’ll either see a range reversal or a bullish breakout.
Given the short distance to target, scaling in isn’t ideal, so for now, it’s a waiting game—either for bullish targets to hit or for bearish hedge triggers to fire.
...Monday’s market drop, thanks to the latest Tariff War drama, saw SPX plunge hard, pushing our bear trades past their 95% & 98.3% profit targets.
During our Fast Forward Group Call, we focused on when to pause trading and when to resume – a crucial but often ignored skill. Instead of rushing in, the plan was to:
– Delay new entries and wait for more confirmation.
– Define bullish & bearish triggers to re-enter the market.
Bullish trigger has fired – favouring a rally.
Bearish trigger now serves as a hedge if markets roll over.
This move mirrors last Monday’s sharp drop, so the approach remains the same: watch for price confirmation, trade smart, and let the market show its hand.
...What happens when a trade goes underwater, but your analysis stays the same?
Traditional traders take the stop loss and move on, but with option income trading, we have better tools.
A January 16th bearish trade setup collected $3.20 credit but quickly sank as SPX broke out. Instead of taking the loss outright, a new bearish setup on Jan 23rd allowed for a roll-up in strikes while collecting $3.90 in new credit.
The final net result? A 53.2% profit despite the first trade being a loser.
Key takeaway: rolling only works when conviction remains strong—this time, it paid off.
Friday’s trade followed our range analysis, setting up a textbook Range Reversal.
While enjoying a birthday dram, I spotted a V-shaped entry at the range highs and took the trade, collecting $4.00 in premium.
Markets then tumbled into Monday, thanks to the “Tariff Wars,” and the trade was closed at the opening bell for $0.20, bagging a solid profit.
Another SPX Tag ‘n Turn win—whiskey, trades, and a few pennies more!
...Last week’s bearish trade setup played out perfectly, thanks to a V-shaped entry, trend line break, and bearish pulse bars.
The straight-line bullish move made waiting for a conservative entry the right call.
With time decay on my side, the trade was well-positioned before the weekend’s “Tariff War” headlines triggered the expected drop.
Initially, I collected $3.00 in premium, and thanks to Monday’s favourable gap, I exited for $0.05, locking in a 98.3% return.
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