The Fed went sput sput fizz, GOOG dropped 11.5% after hours, and the indexes carried on behaving. The Double Dip strategy banks its first official win on SPY with $165 locked in as a minimum profit floor.
...The FOMC held at 3.75 to 4.00% on a 10-2 vote and the long end rose 6 to 7 basis points while the front end fell 3. The textbook says a hawkish split lifts the front end. Here is what the curve did instead, and the one test that would settle it.
...The FOMC held at 3.75 to 4.00% on a 10-2 vote with both dissents for a hike, the 2-year fell 3 basis points to 4.67% and the 30-year rose 7 to 5.37%. Alphabet reported 127.58 billion dollars of revenue at 20:02 UTC and 51.4 billion of capex on the call, and Nasdaq futures read 1.27% lower by the 07:45 UTC capture; Microsoft was 2 to 5% higher. GDP and PCE at 12:30 UTC.
...Day 2 of the opinion lining up with the system. S&P and Naz push off the range lows, VIX loses its nerve, the PnF breaks out toward 7820, crude’s triangle grows up into a channel, and the Poppers lock in a loss then a profit. Storm Boelo optional.
...Both volatility indices fell more than 4% on the day before the FOMC statement, to 17.52 and 97.88, while the front end of the curve rose 2 basis points and the back eased. The textbook says event risk gets dearer into the event. Here is what would settle whether the market was right.
...The VIX fell 4.73% to 17.52 and the MOVE index 4.22% to 97.88 on the session before the FOMC statement, both at their lowest close since 21 October. The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.29% with 6 of 11 sectors lower and 65% of the move has no named cause, Boeing fell 10.69% and the Dow rose 16 points, WTI settled 99.90 and was 101.90 by 09:25 UTC.
...My direction call was right for exactly 1 day. The S&P and Naz are nudging off the range lows, the uncles are stalling, VIX has come down from its espresso high, and the SPX point and figure chart needs 7720 before the bull breakout switch flips.
...The S&P 500 rose 0.70% on a session in which 55.29% of NYSE volume traded in falling shares, 736 million of them against Friday’s 737 million on a down day. The index and the tape are a different list of companies, and the question is which one described Monday.
...The S&P 500 rose 0.70% on Monday while 55.29% of NYSE volume traded in falling shares, 736 million of them against Friday’s 737 million on a down day. New lows beat new highs on both exchanges, 70% of the index gain has no named cause, the 6-month bill rose and the 20-year fell before Wednesday’s statement.
...Carpet bombing declared and withdrawn inside 45 minutes, a VIX that can’t get through 20, and the question the community asked me over the weekend: how do you trade a market that swings like this when you haven’t got time to watch it? Trade through, or go up a timeframe. The new strategy fired 3 bullish setups on the daily chart on Friday. Crude is almost at the 104.50 bull target, Bitcoin is turning off the channel lows again.
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