The Black Monday call never showed, the S&P went a big boof higher overnight, and VIXen is flirting again. Here’s why I suspect the bear moves aren’t quite over, and the line VIX has to cross for them to get serious.
...Equity volatility closed 19.99 on Friday, up 21.44593%, whilst its own three-month curve stayed in contango at 0.975122 and bond volatility fell. Here is the single number that would have settled it, and why nobody has it.
...Friday the fear gauge closed 19.99, up 21.44593%, and then declined to do the one thing that would have made it mean something. Its own three-month curve stayed in contango at 0.975122, bond volatility fell, and 81.485363% of the index fall has no stated cause.
...Bull shakeout, bear shakeout, false breaks morning, noon and close. The last time price behaved like this was the 2 months before 2008. Here’s how the data keeps me sane, plus the swing reads on SPX, RUT and crude.
...A 1.3% producer-price print landed and every tenor from 5 years out richened by the identical 9 basis points. The two shortest bills cheapened instead. Three duration figures arrived, and they narrow Wednesday’s open question.
...Producer prices rose 1.3% against a 0.6% consensus. The same session, every tenor from 5 years out closed lower by exactly 9 basis points. The bills cheapened. We can show you the arithmetic and we cannot tell you why.
...The AI trade got a swift kick, Uncle Russ slipped into correction territory, and Don Bear collected on the S&P and NazQuack. My opinion said bull, the data said bear, and the data got paid. Plus crude heading for its range high target, Bitcoin pushing off the channel low, and the Premium Poppers popping on SPX and RUT.
...The Nasdaq-100 had its largest fall in 30 sessions and 59% of it arrived after the inflation print was an hour old. The credit market that should have confirmed a debt story moved a third of 1 per cent.
...The Nasdaq-100 had its largest fall in 30 sessions and 59% of it arrived after the inflation print was already an hour old. High yield credit, asked to confirm a debt story, moved a third of 1 per cent.
...The bear is packed away and the bull cycle is in effect, so naturally the Dow ran bull premarket, then gave a fuck you bear move right at the open, retreating 100%. Here’s where that leaves SPX, Crude Oil and Bitcoin, plus the Premium Poppers the team banked.
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