Monday cash: SPX 7,200.75 -0.41% / Dow -1.13% (-557 points) / Nasdaq -0.19% / Energy alone in green +0.6% / 10 of 11 sectors red
Tuesday pre-market: ES +0.2% / NQ +0.2% / YM +102 / NazQuack pumping fresh NATHs without a pause
SPX bear TnT continues, BB compress suggests possible sideways consolidation / RUT missed the bear TnT window, BBs pinch, may open near upper BB for new tag
GEX 7,300 new anchor pin alongside 7,200 previous anchor / range could develop between if exposure holds / NFP Friday is the week’s catalyst
Futures tick up 0.2% after Monday’s 557-point Dow flush. UAE intercepted Iranian missiles. The ceasefire is now defended by Patriot batteries, not the April press release.
SPX cue: Friday’s record at 7,230 sits 30 points above implied open. AMD reports Tuesday afternoon. The bar Palantir set is now distinctly ungenerous to neighbours.
Bitcoin tags $80,500 for the first time since January. Spot BTC ETFs took $629.7M on Friday after redeeming Monday through Wednesday. Late, but cheerful, as ever.
Palantir delivered 85% revenue growth, beat EPS by 18%, and raised guide to $7.66B. Stock added 1.5% after-hours. Wall Street, having considered this, applauded politely.
Watch the Warsh Senate vote, AMD guide Tuesday, Friday’s payrolls print, and Hormuz shipping data. Energy was Monday’s lone green sector. The other ten declined comment.
SPX Friday close 7,230.12 fresh ATH +0.29% / Nasdaq +0.89% / April best month since 2020 / 5 straight weeks of gains
Overnight futures: ES NQ RTY all at fresh NATHs / Dow the only laggard / RTY finally caught up
Bear SPX swing on tight leash given bullish MACD-V reading / RUT remains bullish, same dynamic developing
Project Freedom launches today: 15,000 troops, 100 aircraft, guided-missile destroyers through Hormuz / Iran objects / Brent steady $108
Futures mixed at record levels: ES up 0.1%, NQ up 0.21%, YM down 0.2%. April delivered the broad index’s biggest monthly gain in years on five straight weekly gains.
Trump launched Project Freedom Sunday with 15,000 troops and 100 aircraft. A tanker took projectiles 78 miles north of Fujairah hours before. Iran called it a breach.
Bitcoin reclaimed 80,000 dollars on the announcement. ETFs took 630 million on May 1. April delivered the best monthly inflows since October, ending four months of bleeding.
Warsh nomination heads to full Senate week of May 11. Powell’s chair term ends May 15. Yields holding 4.3% on the 10-year. Markets price one cut maximum for 2026.
April jobs report Friday: consensus 53,000 versus prior 178,000. GameStop bid 56 billion for eBay. Asia tech up 5%. Hang Seng rose 1.4%. Kospi at a record.
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...SPX 7,209.01 Thursday close, first finish above 7,200, April best month since 2020 / RUT back to range highs in three bullish pulse bars / Apple beat all metrics, premarket +3%
SPX classic breakout-pullback setup, bullish to range target reached last hour Thursday / MACD-V at bullish extreme / new TnT signals continuation not reversal / Friday holding posture, not stressing the weekend
Markets doing their fiddler’s elbow impression (up-down-up-down) which after vertical 2 weeks suggests possible major accumulation/distribution before next big move
GEX 7,200 the dominant node / Brent $126 wartime high / Powell held with 4 dissents / Apple Exxon Chevron Moderna April jobs today
S&P 500 closed April at 7,209, first above 7,200, best month since 2020. Apple beat. Meta tripped. Microsoft tripped. The tape took the win regardless.
SPX cue: futures flat at 06:45 ET, holding the cash close. 7,200 is the new floor. Apple’s open will tell you whether records are technical or real.
Bitcoin clawed back $77K from a $75.5K overnight flush. ETF outflows now stretch three sessions. Fear and Greed at 33, lower by fourteen points week on week.
Powell held 3.50-3.75% in his last meeting as chair. Four dissents, most since 1992. Warsh advances. December cut off the table. Powell stays as governor anyway.
Brent touched $126 wartime peak Thursday before settling $114, WTI $105. Hormuz still shut, blockade extended. Exxon, Chevron, Moderna report. April jobs due before bell.
Mag 7 four-way reaction: GOOGL +6% (cloud +63%, $190B capex), META -5% (Q2 guide held flat), MSFT -3% (AI run rate $37B), AMZN -3% (beat anyway)
SPX still grinding the range, premium sale short strike intact / RUT bear breakout extends, first swing exit banked / Premium Poppers two back-to-back losses, called it a day
8:30 ET triple drop: Q1 GDP advance / March PCE (last 2.7%) / Employment Cost Index / ECB decides this morning / Apple closes the bell
GEX 7,150 ceiling and 7,100 floor again / oil bid hard at Brent $111.49 / VIX 18.81 +5.5%
Alphabet beats and lifts capex to $190 billion. Shares rally 6%. Meta, Microsoft, Amazon all sold. Three beats. Three punishments. The tape has standards now.
SPX closed 7,135.95 Tuesday, polite and flat. VIX rose 5.5% to 18.81. Today’s GDP, PCE, and ECI prints arrive together at 08:30 ET, no warm-up.
Bitcoin holds the $75,000 zone quietly. ETF streak snapped Monday with $263 million in outflows. Ethereum sits at $2,300 while one company hoards the float weekly.
Brent at $111.49 a barrel. US gasoline averages $4.10 a gallon, up 27% since the war began. Powell calls this “transitory” only when it suits him.
Apple closes the Mag 7 gauntlet after today’s bell, the last hyperscaler still given a microphone this week. ECB decides this morning. Lagarde follows, gamely.
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