Andy D. pulled over on a public road to trade, “violated a few laws” (kidding), and banked RUT 100% ROC before driving away
Mary set up the lazy poppers, had lunch with her sisters, came home to winners – this is the whole point
Swanky Swank quietly hit 88% win rate over 50 consecutive trading days – read that again
Duncan’s Gold BWB was supposed to run 7 days – it finished in 1 – “actually a mistake”
Trump told CBS the war was “pretty much” complete – Brent cratered 7% from $119 to $91 overnight, futures now +0.4%
Markets doing what markets do – U-turning at the range lows, Sunday’s gap downs fully recovered and then some
VIX retreated from above 30 but still flirting with range highs – tensions not gone, just paused
Yesterday’s Poppers: frustrating start with 2 BO losses, walked away, came back, 3rd BO bullish on SPX then a VWAP trade – net positive
The Fed is caught between a slowing economy and an oil-driven inflation shock – the same trap that’s caused recessions in 1974, 1980, 1991, and 2008
Historical record is damning: the Fed made the wrong policy call in 8 out of 12 quarters during oil shocks since 1973
Leading indicators falling 3.7% annually while coincident indicators grow just 0.9% – signals say the Fed should already be cutting
But oil surging toward $88 could push inflation from 2.4% to 5% – making cuts politically and economically impossible
Kevin Warsh takes over from Powell in May, inheriting the worst possible starting hand for a new Fed Chair
CME FedWatch shows less than 4% chance of a March cut, rate cuts pushed to September at the earliest
Bond options traders are now betting the Fed may not cut at all in 2026 – some positioning for potential hikes
Gasoline jumped 11 cents in one day to $3.11 per gallon – the largest single-day increase since Hurricane Katrina in 2005
S&P futures -1.6% at 6,608, Nasdaq -2%, Dow -1.3% – nobody is arguing with the direction this morning
NFP printed -92,000 on Friday – worst print since the pandemic – and CPI lands Wednesday with the war’s first fingerprints on it
SPX is outside the range, RUT has broken its longer-term rising channel and hit the 10% down mark from recent highs
Premium Poppers keeping the scorecard green whilst the world rearranges itself around us
Triple macro collision at 08:30 ET today – NFP, live tariffs, and oil above $83 all land simultaneously
VIX at 24.77, SPX and RUT in bear breakouts and range retests – RUT more so than SPX
Yesterday’s Premium Poppers: Trade 1 stumbled on both instruments, Trades 2 and 3 got paid – system held
The up-a-day, down-a-day grind continues – and that’s exactly what the system was built for
Yoyo continues. Up Wednesday (+0.78%), futures dipping Thursday. Broadcom dropped a $100B AI chip roadmap for 2027. Semis roared. Tariffs landed. Iran wants peace. Markets shrug. The range holds
Yesterday’s Premium Poppers: 4 trades, 3 wins, 1 loss, net positive. SPX banked $20/66.7% and $9/64.3%. RUT took an -$22 loss then recovered with a $30/66.7% winner. The system keeps delivering through chaos
SPX and RUT firmly back in their ranges after attempted breakouts. The 1.5% daily moves aren’t the 2-4% you’d expect during a war – further proof the market is almost ignoring it. If uncertain, step aside and wait for the range to break with conviction
NFP Friday at 58K consensus – less than half last month. ADP beat yesterday. Tariffs just landed at 15%. The Fed is stuck. Trade the charts, not the headlines. PopPop
War on or war off? The markets don’t seem to know. Korea crashed 12% – worst day in history, eclipsing 9/11. Hormuz effectively closed. Five tankers damaged. VIX peaked at 28. But US indices? Still in their ranges
Monday’s gap down went to range lows. Tuesday’s gap down broke out. Subsequent rally put it back in the range – classic break-in setup. #1 and #2 marked on both SPX and RUT charts
I’m not smart enough to figure out the geopolitics. I do know price charts keep showing repeatable patterns that are tradeable. Bear swings cashed. Bullish Poppers bounced. On a hike
Anticipating a narrow ranging day after Tuesday’s huge rejection bar. NFP Friday looms. ADP and ISM Services today. Trade the charts. Read the data. PopPop
∙ Monday’s dead cat bounce evaporated overnight – S&P futures down 2%, Nasdaq -2.5%, Dow losing nearly 1,000 points pre-market
∙ Europe getting demolished: DAX -4.3%, STOXX 600 biggest 2-day drop since April, every single sector red
∙ KOSPI plunged 7.4% in catch-up trade – Asia/Pacific all deep red across the board
∙ Iran struck the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh with drones – Trump now says operations could last weeks
∙ Amazon AWS data centres in UAE and Bahrain physically hit by Iranian drones – first military strike on major U.S. tech infrastructure ever
∙ QatarEnergy shut LNG production indefinitely after Iranian attacks – European natural gas surged 34%
∙ Oil continues climbing: WTI $76.19 (+7%), Brent $80.49 (+7.2%) – Rabobank sees Hormuz disrupted for weeks to months
∙ Bitcoin erased Monday’s bounce to $70K, back down to $66,300 as risk-off returns with force
∙ U.S. and Israel launched coordinated strikes across Iran including Tehran – Trump called it “major combat operations” under Operation Epic Fury
∙ Iran retaliating with missiles at Israel and U.S. bases across the Gulf – Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan all reporting explosions
∙ IRGC has radioed closure of the Strait of Hormuz – roughly 20% of global oil supply transits this chokepoint
∙ Bitcoin dumped 6% to $63,000 as the only liquid risk asset trading over the weekend – $515M+ in liquidations
∙ JP Morgan estimates full Hormuz blockade could push oil past $120-130/barrel – currently around $70
∙ Stock and bond markets closed until Sunday night futures – Monday’s open is where the real repricing begins
∙ I’ve been warning about the seasonal crash window – this is exactly the kind of catalyst that turns corrections into crashes
13 trades across 3 trading days. Zero losses. 100% win rate. The Premium Poppers delivered through Monday’s carnage, Tuesday’s birthday party, and Thursday’s Nvidia hangover
SPX: 8 trades totalling $158 in index gains with ROC ranging from 55.6% to 69.7%. Breakouts, VWAP pops, counter-trends, Fib levels – the full toolkit
RUT: 5 trades totalling $77 in index gains with ROC from 12.5% to 68.6%. Even a mismanaged exit from a birthday party still banked profit
Wednesday’s missed trades were the only “losses” this week – expensive conversations at the insiders group whilst the community got a nibble. The system served up the setups. I just wasn’t there to press the button
30-day rolling stats holding at 80% total win rate with BREAKOUT status. Bear side running at 92.9%. The systematic edge keeps compounding. PopPop