Hot inflation, oil near $100, a 10-year yield above 5% and the market still won’t crack. Here’s what a market that refuses to fall is really telling you, why the “overdue correction” is a myth, and what I watch for when the floor finally gives way.
...VIX won’t retreat below 16, the Dow and the Russell won’t join the bull party, and with no big news this week it’s a coin toss. Here’s the S&P’s over under line for the bull bear moves, crude’s breakout target, and a nail-biting butterfly that paid by the final bell.
...The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.112670% on Monday and 87.760278% of it was an opening gap. Underneath, NYSE new lows doubled to 85. We work out which of the two measures is describing tomorrow.
...The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.112670% on Monday and 87.760278% of that was an opening gap. Underneath it, NYSE new lows more than doubled to 85 and new highs halved to 30. Nobody can say why.
...The Black Monday call never showed, the S&P went a big boof higher overnight, and VIXen is flirting again. Here’s why I suspect the bear moves aren’t quite over, and the line VIX has to cross for them to get serious.
...Equity volatility closed 19.99 on Friday, up 21.44593%, whilst its own three-month curve stayed in contango at 0.975122 and bond volatility fell. Here is the single number that would have settled it, and why nobody has it.
...Friday the fear gauge closed 19.99, up 21.44593%, and then declined to do the one thing that would have made it mean something. Its own three-month curve stayed in contango at 0.975122, bond volatility fell, and 81.485363% of the index fall has no stated cause.
...Bull shakeout, bear shakeout, false breaks morning, noon and close. The last time price behaved like this was the 2 months before 2008. Here’s how the data keeps me sane, plus the swing reads on SPX, RUT and crude.
...A 1.3% producer-price print landed and every tenor from 5 years out richened by the identical 9 basis points. The two shortest bills cheapened instead. Three duration figures arrived, and they narrow Wednesday’s open question.
...Producer prices rose 1.3% against a 0.6% consensus. The same session, every tenor from 5 years out closed lower by exactly 9 basis points. The bills cheapened. We can show you the arithmetic and we cannot tell you why.
...