TL;DR – The Bottom Line
Wall Street pre-paid for a peace that didn’t arrive Friday. Records held. Iran’s foreign minister spent the weekend in Oman and Russia. Oil moved on what the headlines wouldn’t.
FOMC Wednesday 2 p.m., hold at 3.50 to 3.75% expected despite PCE forecast 3.5% versus 2.8% prior. Powell at 2:30, same evening four mega-caps report.
Q1 GDP advance Thursday morning after Q4 2025 was revised to a sluggish 0.5%. PCE same release window. Apple Thursday close. Exxon and Chevron Friday.
Bitcoin near $78,500 after fourth straight week of $824 million ETF inflows. BlackRock IBIT took $733 million. One fund did roughly 89% of the bid.
Magnificent Seven down 11% year-to-date whilst the S&P prints fresh records. The 493 carries the load. Wednesday’s mega-cap capex commentary tests whether the rotation holds.

TL;DR – The Bottom Line

Records Friday: S&P 7,165, Nasdaq 24,836, Intel up 23.65% on a blockbuster Q1. Hope priced in. Saturday took it back out before futures could even open.
Trump cancelled the Pakistan trip mid-flight on Truth Social. Iran refused direct US contact. Pezeshkian: no talks until the blockade lifts entirely. Stalemate just hardened.
US Navy redirected its 37th ship Saturday with the Sevan tanker intercepted. Hormuz risk premium back on. Crude at $94.40 will not stay there into Sunday futures open.
FOMC lands Wednesday 2pm with Powell at 2:30. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon all report after the close same day. Apple Thursday alongside Q1 GDP and core PCE.
Bitcoin held $78K through the diplomatic collapse, up 5.8% weekly. Ethereum lagged at $2,330. Fear and Greed stuck at 39 despite the bid. Disbelief rally signature.